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Hotspur61

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Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Locksbottom,kent
  • Interests
    golf,football,supporter of THFC
  • Weather Preferences
    Loves cold winters and snow and warm summers

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  1. Yeah my mate just text me to say steady snow.Hope it continues up there!!
  2. Just plain rain here in Locksbottom.Good luck to those with elevation in the thread(North Downs looks favoured spot).Could be temp accumulations.Please send in any pics.Lovely to see snow and its not even Winter yet!!
  3. Yeah just seen that .Biggin Hill has heavy snow 9-12.Could be a covering up there.
  4. Think we need look no further than T+120/144 atm.UKMO at T+120 is good but not as good as T+144 last night as Heights starting to move a little too much Westwards over Greenland and Heights not as Low over Northern Italy.Would prefer core of Heights over Iceland if i am being picky. GFS is a step in right direction and historically is too progressive with Atlantic pushing in so all in all things look finely balanced Be interesting to see how strong the block is in the coming days.Hopefully very strong as it has been there quite a while!!
  5. Got the Lower Heights over Northern Italy now and interesting that all fragments of PV on the right side of the globe from our perspective.Still not a bad position to be in the last days of AUTUMN!!
  6. Very interesting read and even if wrong, good of you to spend the time and effort to explain your reasons for why a cold winter in the UK is possible. Thank You and hope you are right of course
  7. Been a Ghastly day here and i can hear the heavy rain crashing against the kitchen window as i write this.Max temp of 7.4 here in Locksbottom but felt colder in the keen Easterly wind.Tomorrow looks even worse with Max temps of 4 and maybe some sleet possible.Higher spots like Biggin Hill and Knockholt in NW Kent likely to see some wet snow tomorrow although unlikely to settle i feel P.S.Great post by TOMSE12 earlier on different types of Snow Streamers.I am a big fan of the ENE ones from an IMBY perspective !!
  8. Amazing how Models are diverging even in the ST but makes it all the more interesting.Over the last 8 years since i have been on the brilliant NW Forums i always feel statistically that the UKMO at T+144 is the most consistent and close to the mark(just going from memory here before i get shot down and my memory not the best lol).Hope it is on the money tonight as if it is i think it is a good route to colder weather for last few days of November into early December
  9. Hotspur61

    Winter 2018/19

    That would give us temps of 12-14 degrees i would think.Very respectable but probably wont verify!!Models are having enough trouble at T+144 atm lol!!
  10. Hotspur61

    Winter 2018/19

    As we enter the last 2 weeks of Autumn it seems that some on the MAD thread have given up on winter 2018/19 already as things Model wise, have taken a slight turn for the worse in terms of the predicted cold spell that has shown up on a regular basis over the last week or so.However,for me the theme and trend still looks pretty blocked for the next few weeks and i feel that we are in a so much better position at this time of year than we have been for the last half dozen years.Indeed, the LR Models seem pretty upbeat on a Blocked Winter for the UK.That is not to say that there will not be milder spells and the Atlantic will of course pass through the UK from time to time-for me that is a given.What might be interesting as we progress through winter and temps gradually drop is that i think there will be battleground situations where the systems come up against the colder air.As has been the case since the Spring this year i have seen many occasions where the Atlantic has come in but by the time it reaches the SE/E England it has very little precip on it as the High to our East has held firm.I see this pattern continuing over the next 3 months tbh and that is why i am optimistic that the UK will see more snow than an average winter(think Midlands could do well this year in battleground scenarios).Although we might not be successful in seeing the much sought after snow in the next 7-10 days we must remember it is only 16th November and we have a good 3-3 1/2 months to look forward to and i hope wintry weather rewards the enthusiasm and great posts from so many great and knowledgable posters that NW forums have. I think we may look back come late March 2019 and say "Yeah that was a pretty good winter in terms of cold and snow for the UK"!!
  11. Wow the BBC outlook for end of November into early December doesn't look to positive for coldies and goes against what many are suggesting on the MOD thread.That said they are hedging their bets a bit with that "alternative forecast" lol!!
  12. Just sat down and read from p108 to last posts and fair to say it has been another eventful day in the Hunt for Cold lol!!I feel a touch of the late Nov/early Dec 2010 pattern coming on and i think after the weekend we will see a pretty consistent drop of temps day on day so this time next week think we will be looking at temps of between 4-8 degrees across the UK.I hope that BFTP is right and that we do result in the weather coming from the NE in the last few days of November as Europe will call down rapidly over next 7-10 days.That , however is a lifetime away in weather terms, so trying not to get too carried away.Another aspect cropping up on models is pressure dropping in N Italy area(thats one i learnt from Nick Sussex over the years).We are certainly in a potentially great position if cold is your like compared to past winters and with that increases the chance of snow that if it comes,will give joy to 95% of us on this forum and then everyone can send pics on the Regionals. Enjoy the ride folks and lets hope the Models keep on showing the potential cold spell which will kick off Winter 2018-19!!
  13. Well we have had everything here in Locksbottom area today.Hailstones,heavy rain,thunder,lightning,rainbows and some warm sunshine at times and temp peaked at 14.1 here.Really wasn't expecting as much rain as we have had.Ended up getting soaked 3 times today and gave up work at 3.30 after the 4th heavy shower of the day lol!!.Thankfully rest of the week looks much better and signs are it will start to turn colder by the weekend so Jack Frost may be about from next week
  14. Hotspur61

    Winter 2018/19

    Love this time of year as Winter approaches and the anticipation grows from a coldies pov.Am always in awe of the knowledge and reading of the models by our senior members(they know who they are) which helps the less knowledgble like myself to keep on learning.I think having read quite a bit on this coming winter we are in a much more favourable position for some cold spells before xmas this year.With a weak/moderate El Nino(maybe Modoki),low sun activity bordering on dormant,a possible SSW in the making, a fairly weak Atlantic at the moment finding it difficult to make inroads against the Huge High to the East which has been there for months it seems and i think statistically we are in pretty good shape.No guarantees of course as i believe there are no such things when it comes to the weather but i do get the feeling we could be in business in terms of cold and snow this year.With that will come the usual meltdown in the forums if this occurs but remember if we miss out in terms of cold and snow lets keep it civil in here guys.WE have the next 5 months to look forward to and lets hope come the end of March we will be looking back at a memorable winter if snow is your thing
  15. Hotspur61

    Your Deepest Snow Record

    When i lived in Chelsfield December 2010 was the most snowfall i have ever experienced.We were in the sweetspot then and snow started November 29th and snowed steadily till December 1st.Level snow was 17 inchs deep!!Amazing and would take some beating.
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