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TAFKAP

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Everything posted by TAFKAP

  1. Yes that does, on the face of it appear to be the case re: SSWs. However from what I've seen posted the temperature rise is less than one degree C and none of the figures I've seen posted have explained those figures in the context of seasonal influence and broader tropospheric conditions. Furthermore I don't think anything is being 'swept under the carpet' as this isn't some top secret forum with an evil agenda to hide information. There is no conspiracy going on here, perhaps your tinfoil hat is on a little too tight!
  2. What a well thought out response to the model output there and thank you for backing up your thoughts with such a detailed analysis and providing us with such illustrative charts. Your input is very helpful indeed!
  3. Good point you have their, apart from the elderly, ill and very young who do need protection from cold I am always highly amused to go to work on a mild morning with no wind chill like today and see people dressed like they are about to embark on an arctic expedition. I see people in huge scarves, thick gloves, fur Ushankas etc. What do they do when it is actually cold? These are the same ones who come into the office on a lovely frosty, bright morning and moan about how cold it is and they can't stand it. NB The coldest I have been personally is -30 degrees C. Now at at that temperature you can complain, not at 5 degrees above freezing!
  4. I see the moaning slowly creeping back in. Could I remind you all we don't live in Siberia and this isn't 1963. The RELIABLE timeframe looks fantastic.
  5. Would love to hear some expert analysis from Ian Brown this evening. Any thoughts on the ECM 12z output Ian?
  6. The precip charts show snow south of the M4 as well actually.
  7. Bank that chart! In the 'teapot' era this would have had people wetting themselves with excitement.
  8. Fair enough, but that said I thought the post a few pages back about snow in Jerusalem and Palestine was taking the Michael but looks to be some truth in it http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/259224 (NB Fun fact, although you might not think it, Jerusalem gets snow pretty much each year)
  9. I think you're starting to over analyse things a little. As good as the Meto are (no seriously!) they are not omniscient and 'that email' could just as well say the Meto are now worrying about England being covered in several feet of snow in 10 days time (unlikely, yes). This is starting to get a little silly actually and we need to stop micro-analysing every comment by every weather bod on social media and get back to the NWP output which at the moment, to take an objective view, is about as far from having it 'nailed' as it possible to be. To use an analogy the roulette wheel has been spun but that ball is still sputtering around and where it lands is anyone's guess.
  10. But given the flip flopping of late, wouldn't the Meto look very silly changing to the degree you suggest. The output could be different yet again come this evening.
  11. These are terrible charts! The uppers just aren't cold enough for snow and the all the cold remains stuck in Europe!!! Shocking charts for cold lovers, it just makes me so mad I want to throw teddy out of the pram, WAHHHH!!! LOL
  12. Thanks for the update latitude, sounds very promising. Where do you get your meto information from though? Is it something publicly accessible or insider knowledge? On a side note I'd like it if there were a netweather member called longitude so the two of you could constantly be working at cross-purposes LOL
  13. An excellent post to keep in mind before reaching for the razors and prozac folks. Now, much more than usual, there is no point getting so emotional about the vagaries of each run. As for moaning that the we aren't getting any cold, having a look at the 2m temps for London shows well below average temperatures being likely for the entirety of the run with a number of positively Arctic ensemble members by London standards. This would likely mean a below average January CET if continued wouldn't it? Something people would have been desperate for a few years back. Lastly I hope I don't hear that idiotic term 'faux cold' being bandied about because if it is cold on the ground then it IS COLD, we don't live at the 850hpa level last time I checked.
  14. I like to view them while wearing a raspberry beret, the kind you buy in a second hand store.
  15. You're right there is nothing ugly about it. Just the same old nonsense that comes up every time cold is progged. A busy few days ahead for the mods methinks.
  16. ECM will come to the rescue again this evening. No point stressing yet.
  17. Indeed, early indications that the model forum may go nuclear!
  18. Bold claim as usual Ian. Why don't you put some flesh on the bones and provide some evidence for your assertion? In some ways I respect the sheer persistence of your mild bias but without any evidence it is the same old rubbish.
  19. It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.
  20. Extremely tasty options from the models today with a super ECM and an almost as tasty 18z GFS, and almost 2 months of winter left to go. Looking good for cold lovers.
  21. Everyone should be cautious! The planetary alignment and hadron flux capacitance deriving from the DJU phasing mean this cold spell could be over before it started. . . . . . . Sarcasm, LOL
  22. In the mangled words of the less informed on this forum I suspect it'll be a 'Stella' run with some fascinating charts in 'F1' LOL
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