[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

What is so striking about this weather pattern is where this rainfall has fallen. During a typical unsettled spell of weather my location often remains one of the driest. The last 6 months my location has seen 200% of its normal rainfall and yet locations such as SW/W Scotland have seen only 30-50% of its normal rainfall.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

My final word on this dreadful winter in which even frost & fog has been elusive. This has been probably one of the most disappointing I can ever remember. However even in Europe the winter has been incredibly mild. Many years ago I would always look at the temps in Poland if any E,ly was on it's way. Looking at the temps this winter in Miawa (Poland) apart from early Jan the max temps have been incredibly mild.

Im short of time so shall have to be brief.

Whilst I shall continue to look at the teleconnection predictions and seasonal models. I shall look and see what the teleconnections suggest for the whole of Europe rather than the UK. I do not believe you can use these forecasting methods just for a small island like the UK. The same applies to seasonal models.

Speaking of seasonal models. We know how SSW can affect the other teleconnections. We also know seasonal models cannot predict when a SSW in advance. So this makes you wonder why they even bother with these models or is the stratosphere less impactful than we think!

Whatever happens I shall continue to appreciate the efforts by members using teleconnections i.e Tamara, Met Cast etc even if you aren't convinced with the accuracy of these. I suggest others do the same because the likes of Tamara do this for free and wish to share their knowledge with the rest of us. If you were running a weather dependant business and paid huge amounts of money to these people I could understand your displeasure.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

One thing I would like to know more about (I may contact Met O) is when it comes to computer modelling there is one aspect many seem to forget. We assume they are fed the data and off they run working out the equations. However all hardware requires software and it is this software in my opinion why different models differ in performance. 

I would like to know more about how the software is programmed. Some say historical weather data is fed into the system whilst others disagree. How often do they update this software? Do they even know the cause of what has changed in our winters these past few years as something has obviously changed. If they don't know the cause then how can they remedy this into the software program?

This winter we would of been better off using my Commodore Vic 20 that is currently sat in my loft.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Eagle Eye Certainly has but I continue to be very impressed with your knowledge and quality of posts. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Speaking of SSW. The chart below from Dec 2009 brought a memorable day for here in Peterborough. One foot of lying snow, continous heavy snow showers, max temp -4C. Never expected such charts to be repeated one year later.

As far as i'm aware neither 2009 or 2010 had a prior SSW to these events. Infact many didn't see this coming except the Met O as I recall their LRF mentioning well below average temps, snowfall and many of us were puzzled as this wasn't appearing in the output at the time.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER The problem why too much emphasis is placed on a SSW is because of the wrong assumption that it means a cold, blocking spell of weather is going to occur. We should view it as being just one variable amongst many others.

My limited knowledge of a SSW is the chance this could displace or split the PV. Such an impact on the PV means all the cold air bottled in the Arctic could spill into Europe, N America etc. The main problem as I see it is the prediction of how a SSW will impact the PV and where this Arctic air mass is displaced to is poorly understood. You then have the added complication of how other teleconnections will interact with this warming. If this isn't enough to confuse everyone you then have the "unknown variable" that is making forecasting even more difficult.

Obviously we shouldn't give up trying to understand but never view a variable in insolation. This is why I suggest to many to view all the available data i.e Forecast models, ensembles, seasonal models, Met O LRF etc.

The other problem with forecasting is having a bias affecting your judgement. I'm not mentioning any names but over in the US we have someone who always seems to be predicting the destruction of the PV due to a SSW, every winter predicting a tanking AO and cold spells for either the US or Europe. However upon closer inspection this person is just like us i.e massive fan of snowy weather.

This is why without being rude to other members I especially take note of Tamara's posts. Being she made the wise move of leaving the UK I know her opinion is 100% based on science and 0% based on bias.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 I'm throwing my towel back in.

What I have noticed lately is for the last week of Feb virtually all GEFS ensembles suggest cold with very few mild runs. The amount of rainfall is disturbing though. Only yesterday I took a trip on my mobility scooter to see the nearby floods and visit my brother at the same time. The pic below was taken right next to a vast amount of houses. The river Nene is around 200 metres from where the photo was taken.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Gowon Even i'm ready to throw in the towel and seek warmth in the model output rather than cold.

The output this morning is just typical of this winter so far. The 12Z ECM last night gave a glimmer of hope which has quickly faded in the following run. Now the only sign of any cold is the last week of Feb but at the moment that looks more like a cool NW,ly than a bitter N/E,ly.

This winter has been very strange. The model output has been inconsistent, poor ensembles, unsuccessful teleconnection predictions, Met O have been predicting cold N/E,lys since mid Jan!, seasonal and longer range models have been useless.

Obviously something else is causing all these failed predictions. Problem is finding the cause can be just as difficult as making successful predictions. You cannot make future successful predictions until you understand the cause.

I'm now beginning to think that for the UK to have cold spells like the good old days we are going to need a significant event to occur. Like the gulf stream suddenly shutting down or a massive volcanic eruption throwing huge amounts of Sulfur dioxide, A nuclear war, asteroid hitting the earth.

Worryingly the nuclear war option is probably the most likely!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast I think this is one of those occasions when rather than looking at all the complex teleconnections we just use some basic instinctive forecasting using the models.

You mention no sign of any cold spell for the next 2 weeks and yet UKMO/ECM at +168 disagree. I don't need any teleconnections to tell me that the +168 charts will go on to develop towards a cold spell for the UK.

Knowing our luck it will be showing a SW,ly tomorrow morning!

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

My advice for next winter especially to any newcomers is this.

Do not rely on one forecasting tool i.e model output, or teleconnections. Use all that is available in the following order Model output, ensembles, teleconnections, Met O. If these are all suggesting a similar outlook then take note. However if the teleconnections are suggesting an outlook which isn't supported by the models, Met O etc then in my opinion be very wary. The same applies to using the other methods in isolation.

You also have additional information like the seasonal models, seagulls, seaweed, Berries on a bush, Daily Express, a medium, If you are that desperate then maybe Exacta Weather!!

 

 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

I can understand the comments by Nick F as I have said the same for many years now. However these days I tend to take note of any predictions based on teleconnections but only if the models, Met O forecast backs these up.

I still say that teleconnections are like jigsaw pieces. Each piece is a driver of our weather but it seems impossible to fit these together. I do not believe we fully understand each driver and even more importantly how they interact with each other. Another additional problem is in the past some of these drivers combined might of brought another 1963 cold spell. However climate change might be altering the effects of these drivers.

Seeking a cold spell next winter does not have to be as stressful as this one. All you need to do is don't bother looking at any model output after +72hrs. This way you are unlikely to see cold spells implode. Obviously this is boring to some people but just highlights how difficult forecasting a UK winter actually is. At times I feel we haven't progressed very much from the countryfile forecasts in the 80's.

Obviously we need to continue to try and find the answers. I shall continue to read Tamara's thoughts because I know she has an unbiased opinion. Also Eagle Eye who seems very young and yet I am so impressed with his knowledge and intelligence. This youngster is going to go very far in life.

Finally i'm disappointed with the reaction from Matt H. I'm sorry but members have the right to their opinion as long as they remain respectful. I can understand the frustration and if I use yourself as an example I can recall many predictions from yourself which have failed to deliver. Every winter I see numerous posts at various times during the winter months referring to positive signals and yet I haven't seen any snowfall since 2018! Still your forecasting record isn't as bad as mine.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch +240 ECM may surprise you!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast You mentioned the lack of -10c ensemble members earlier but so far today we have seen 3 operational model runs produce upper temps at or below -10C. ECM, JMA, 06Z GFS.

My point is when you have such scatter in the ensembles I look for some kind of consistency in the operationals. If the ECM and other models continue to show some promising charts then the number of ensembles at -10C will increase.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast All that highlights to me is after the 15th Feb we have huge scatter.

I'm very much keeping an open mind for the rest of this month. I keep reading the teleconnection signals are disappointing but some members are forgetting a very simple fact about this time of year. This is whatever the signals may or may not suggest, a cold spell and high latitude blocking is always more likely in Feb, March than Dec, Jan.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Jason M Oops yes I do. Obviously getting over excited at the output.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I do find the varied output amusing this morning. At +168 the GFS has SW,lys, UKMO W,lys for the England E,lys for Scotland, ECM N/NE,lys, JMA E,lys.

I don't agree with the comment "Chasing shadows at day 15" though. At the moment nobody knows what is going to happen but the fact is since yesterday we have seen a massive shift in the output. This shift being being towards a colder outlook that may even begin in 8 days time, not 15.

I shall be keeping an eye on these low pressure systems in the Atlantic at +72. We need these to ejaculate SE and not NE/N which is what the GFS does.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81 No surprise to me. Although I wasn't sure how it may change but instinctively the previous output didn't seem correct to me.

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 Froze were the Days I'm not having a go at those who use teleconnections but sometimes the acronyms SSW, MJO do grate on me. 

Let me put it this way. I would say on average we would see several occasions during the winter months when a SSW and MJO look favourable for a potential cold spell in the near future. Sometimes these positive signals will occur many times during the winter months.

Now lets look at what I have experienced since joining the forum. Feb 2005 cold spell, Dec 2009, Dec 2010, Jan 2013, Feb 2018. I haven't seen any significant snow falls or cold spells since 2018. So that's a hell of a lot of positive signals that resulted in sweet FA. I don't recall the 2009,2010 cold spells being predicted on here and appeared at +384 on the GFS and unusually counted down to 0. The Met O did predict these cold spells though as I remember many on here being puzzled by the Met O LRF mentioning well below average temps.

Still my own predictions are even worse. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I haven't posted much recently not just because the output is so poor but i'm unconvinced by the model output and what they are predicting. Plus the performance has been poor even the likes of the UKMO/ECM.

The part of the modelling which I find rather suspect is actually between +72 to +120 and how they model the low pressure which is currently sat to the W of Ireland.

Now i'm making any promises or trying to clutch at straws but I believe changes could still occur at this timeframe which could have more significant changes later on. We understandably always expect downgrades at relatively short timeframes and rarely get upgrades. However in my opinion the chance of a sudden change to what is being predicted around mid Feb i.e+168, +192 could occur because of the change in how the models handle the low between +72 to +120.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Have to laugh at what I have just read on the BBC website. Apparently some schools in N Wales closed in advance due to the amber weather warnings. From what I gather all that is falling is cold rain.

What a different world we now live in as I vividly remember the times in the 1980s I had to walk to school in deep snow and a biting E,ly wind. Never forget the gigantic icicles hanging off the school roof in Jan 1987 and a teacher saying to us "If the heavy snow continues to fall we shall be sending you all home at lunchtime" When she said this it was a white out outside and must of been over a foot of lying snow. The max temps on this day was -7C I believe!!

[Model banter and emotions]

I share everyone's frustration.

What frustrates me is my expectations are pretty low. I do not seek prolonged, cold spells or extreme snowfall. Just a short lived 5cm-10cm of snow would do nicely.  Even that I have struggled to achieve since 2018.

The model output has been odd at times this winter. The way the models have been handling this weeks low pressure is odd and I would not of expected this to track N as projected.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

You have to laugh really. The Icon 0Z wants to take part of the split LP to Iceland and the 06Z sends it to France. Apart from the obvious uncertainty of who may receive snowfall this massively affects beyond. 

So what is causing this poor inconsistent output from all models? 

My only explanation is I honestly believe these models are programmed with some historical weather patterns into them. So when we are in a period outside of the normal W-E,SW-NE movement of low pressure. The mathematical equations want to send the low SE but the programmed bias wants to send it NE.

Could be completely wrong but that has been my experience of following these models over many years.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

So GFS wants to take the low to Scandinavia whilst UKMO/ECM send this SE into the Med.

Normally you would dismiss the GFS but sods law it would be right. Still despite these wild differences I believe the latter part of the 06Z is going to deliver. Encouraging sign when different routes end up to the same destination.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  TillyS Remember this conversation on the 29th Jan. Lesson to be learn't is not to dismiss any model run that suggests a colder weather pattern. I have re-read some of your posts on this thread and all you seem to do is dismiss any cold charts.

Special mention needs to go to Dennis from Norway who has made some incredibly accurate posts.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81 In my experience once the shift S occurs it rarely goes back N in this situation. Much more likely to continue tracking S.