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Everything posted by TEITS

  1. One positive of this winter is the poor homeless haven't suffered as much as they would have if a big freeze occurred. Cannot imagine what it must be like to be homeless when temps are well below freezing.
  2. Still very dry aswell. Only recorded 47mm of rain so far this year. Combined with the dryness of last year then we could do with some rain!
  3. I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.
  4. Morning Nick. This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing. Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.
  5. What I find rather interesting is when I joined this forum alot of focus was placed on the Atlantic SSTs which is understandable. However in recent years less focus seems to be placed on this with more and more teleconnections being used in forecasts. I actually think that since forecasts have become more technical on this forum the accuracy has decreased So I shall ask a few more questions. 1. Should we take a more basic approach at forecasting next winter by for example keeping a closer eye on the Atlantic SSTs? 2. As many on here (including myself) are biased to cold. Do you think that maybe we are looking at signals that point to cold too often? Should we also look at signals that might point to the contrary. Allowing your bias to skew your forecast is one of my biggest faults and I openly admit that! Good thread this by the way.
  6. I disagree with this. Just been looking at the actual recorded SLP mean at Ittoqqortoormiit in the S of Greenland. Now during the cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010 the recorded SLP was between 1030-1040mb. The SLP during Dec 2018 was only around 1005-1010mb. During Jan into Feb the SLP has been generally around 1015. At no stage has the SLP ever get above 1020mb at this location for the entire winter. This makes sense to me as I always follow the Iceland GEFS SLP mean and here this has never got above 1020mb. So whatever the anomalies show, for me we have never seen any form of a GH.
  7. Firstly its is widely considered true that there is a lag effect from solar Min and this may have implications for our winters over the next few years. Secondly ENSO, SSW, Solar, are only 3 variables amongst many others. We may search for the causes of this disappointing winter but I doubt we will find the answers! I said recently that when I joined this forum some considered classic cold spells a thing of the past. Look what happened next we had the incredible cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010. Lets not forget the incredible E,ly last year. I am as disappointed as everyone else with this winter. However lets not have a knee jerk reaction to it!
  8. Whatever your opinion on teleconnections, many on here will be rather more sceptical about predictions of a looming cold spell next winter. However this is a good thing because nobody should take any medium/long range forecast as gospel whatever method is used. I have enjoyed reading the posts this winter especially from Catacol. I find his posts to be very informative but at the same time easy to understand.
  9. You could be right and maybe these signals 20 yrs ago might of delivered a 1962-3 winter. However who knows the real reason and can we be sure that is the right answer?
  10. Spot on with your assesment. The only positive is hopefully some members next winter won't take the background signals as gospel and use them as possible indicators on how the weather MAY turn out. I enjoy the posts from Catacol, GP and their posting style.
  11. What is incredible with these is last nights 18Z GEFS ensembles had the coldest member in F.I at only -2C!! Considering the ECM I have increasing confidence that low pressure is going to track S into the Med with a developing -NAO. However what no member should currently have confidence in is whether the orientation of the block brings bitter N/E,lys to the UK. Such a fine margin between bitter E,lys and mild S,lys!
  12. Bloody hope so. Although the 06Z GFS is where the ECM is heading hence my earlier post.
  13. At least the GEFS ensembles have slightly improved compared with the 18Z although that isn't saying much! The ECM is pretty decent at +240 and if it went out to +300 a pretty decent cold spell would be affecting the UK. These are the only positives I can find amongst a generally poor set of 0Zs.
  14. Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles. Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.
  15. Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell. Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks. After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.
  16. Always much more likely to see a +NAO in Dec compared to Feb. Also I can think of many occasions when the NAO has been positive in Dec but negative in Feb. If you look back then historically UK cold spells have always been more likely after Xmas than before. The Likes of Dec 1981, 2009,2010 were very unusual.
  17. Was it though? Clearly this winter has shown that just one variable i.e SSW isn't the sole reason for a cold spell in the UK. The bitter E,ly last winter would of been caused by other variables being favourable. I shall repeat what I said at the beginning of this winter and have said for several years now. The reason why we cannot forecast using Teleconnections is because we do not fully understand them and more importantly how they interact with each other. You then have the added complication of the UK being a tiny Island. Obviously this doesn't mean members should give up trying. However if members want a more stress free model viewing next winter then they should take background signals with a pinch of salt until this promise appears at +144. I started this winter with a new approach of only viewing to +144 with a glancing look at the ECM to +240. However I admit the temptation of looking at GFS +384 was too much when promising charts failed to appear within the reliable timeframe.
  18. Have to say John I disagree with your analysis. I agree with the mild outlook but pressure is likely to remain high. So settled for most except maybe Scotland who may see more in the way of unsettled weather. The SLP mean for Cambs remains above 1020mb. Possible colder for the last week of Feb?
  19. Only straw to clutch is the GFS Para continues with its GH scenario and dare I say very 1978/79ish. I think virtually all of yesterdays Para runs went with the GH outlook.
  20. Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of. Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.
  21. Queen at Live Aid. An incredible performance from one of the greatest bands.
  22. I too would be interested along with hearing from Chionomaniac and Bring Back 1962-3.
  23. This has been the strangest winter I have ever known since becoming a member back in 2004. What stands out for me is actually the lack of promising charts in the model output. Rarely have we seen a GH being modelled and is why the GEFS Iceland mean has never got above 1020mb. We have only had one failed E,ly when normally this occurs several times. All of this combined with the promising long range forecasts has made this winter somewhat odd. Just add this winter is nothing to do with a lack of cold air over the Arctic. The simple reason is a lack of blocking in the required locations. Have we already forgotten about the relatively recent cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010, Last years BFTE! Back to the current crap model output and all I can say is it must get better because it cannot get any worse!
  24. My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144. However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!