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Barry12
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Posts posted by Barry12
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
I personally would prefer that to 40C heat, albeit it would be nice for it not to be raining! I could live in the Shetlands, although would prefer to live in the Highlands.
yeah maybe not extreme as 40c but t-shirt weather at least, 14c with rain and wind most of the year, apart from winter when it will be the exact same expect a few degrees colder, would be so dull.
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Feel sorry for shetlanders, 14c and rain even when its reaching 40c in the mainland, would hate to live their personally!
UK town dodges heatwave with top temperature of 14C
WWW.BBC.CO.UKResidents and holidaymakers in the Shetland town of Lerwick donned rain hats and jackets on the day much of the UK was coping with a heatwave.I checked the temperature record for Shetland- it reached 27.8c in August 1910 somehow though.
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Thread I created 9 years ago
interesting to look back on, I thought it would take a lot longer, we're on the cusp now!
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BBC predicting 39c in london on Tuesday
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Was woken up told it's snowing, I expected a dusting, there's loads !
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heavy snow here, been snowing for a good couple of hours now.
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Countryfile starts at 18.30 and finishes at 19.30
..think the forecast is at 19.25 approx.
Frosty posting on the regional thread
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22 minutes ago, wellington boot said:
My sense, based on my 15 years of model watching but minimal formal expertise, is that the next model to blink will be the ECM. Hopefully won't end up going all the way to the GFS, but in a situation like this I suspect the GFS is trending with good reason.
So for Friday/Saturday, I'd currently expect an incursion of milder air into some portion of the S/SE. Beyond that, it's probably up for grabs with such an intense cold pool nearby. Some decently cold air could get pulled back or the S/SE might stay a tad warmer.
Agree, when the GFS isn't showing what people want it's suddenly 'useless' and 'over progressive.' I can remember countless times the GFS has called it correctly, and the ECM has followed later, or at least trended towards the GFS solution. I don't think we should discount any model at this stage. In the UK, the Atlantic will always have a higher chance of winning the battle, not saying it will however.
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Guys it's over NI, looks like game on too me.
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29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
The truth is nobody knows how much snow anyone will get simply because the track cannot be pinned down to 50 miles north to south.
It might miss Heckmonwike but hit Batley mate
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snowing here as well
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heavy snow here
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Moderate snow shower here.
I've got a feeling we're gonna get a decent amount of snow on Sunday.
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cheer up Terrier, you'll see snow mate.
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In my opinion, people should stop giving time periods for pattern changes, because it usually leads to disappointment. Due to the background signals being much better than last year, I believe that at some point during the next 3 months we will get a pattern change to a cold blocked pattern, but to give a specific time on when that will happen is impossible. It's not a dig at anyone, but simply a fact that no one, no matter how knowledgeable, can forecast more than 10 days out with any accuracy. Including the Met Office. If people start mentioning the end of December now for a pattern change I think I might scream. This winter WILL most likely be better than last winter but nothing is certain past day 10.
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Despite all the background signals and forecasts from the 'experts', to a cold blocked pattern change, it actually looks more likely it will be mild based on current model output.
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Starting to look like the wheels are now coming of the Northern blocking wagon, the point of interest is being pushed back yet again which is unfortunate. I'm starting to think we will have a typical December fare.
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57 minutes ago, Tamara said:
and as the flag-waver for the possibilities after mid month, and indeed beyond into the New Year - taking into account 3 to 4 week timelines that can apply.
Great informative post by Tamara, I really hope we do see a change by mid month. As a pessimist though, I can't help but notice the potential pattern change seems to remain in weeks 2 and 3 on the models. Hopefully the blocked pattern can change into a cold and snowy pattern by mid month.
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Theres also potential for mildness...
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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
What are the verification stats for week 3 CFS charts?
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The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.
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On 17/11/2016 at 22:33, Barry95 said:
First it was the middle of November, then the end of November, and now the start of December for the pattern change to significant blocking! Let's hope this isn't a theme of this winter as I have dejavu of this thing happening from the last couple of winters.
Now it's starting to move into the middle of December...
When looking at the models past day 7, do not take it seriously, even if it's got support from it's ensembles. 99/100 times it leads to disappointment, and even if does become cold it's usually watered down. December 2010 is the only time the amazing sypnoptics actually verified in the last 25+ years. The 'experts' on here keep saying 'patience', and then push the forecasted time for the cold back! After last winter, I'm starting to run out of patience!
Still early days yet though.
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First it was the middle of November, then the end of November, and now the start of December for the pattern change to significant blocking! Let's hope this isn't a theme of this winter as I have dejavu of this thing happening from the last couple of winters. A couple of days ago Ian posted about a strong signal towards a more blocked pattern, with GLOSEA and MOGREPS both supporting that. But less than 24 hours later, the signals towards a more blocked pattern had already waned, which goes to show just how hard it is forecasting the weather anymore than a week in the UK. I'm currently not getting excited just yet as all the blocking charts seem to be remaining in the 10-15 day timeframe. The GFS 12z run everyone was getting excited about has already changed on the 18z. The Northern Hemisphere background does still look much better than last year, but all the good background signals in the world don't gurantee cold/snowy weather for the UK. Until these blocked/cold charts get to at least day 7, theirs no point getting too excited in my opinion.
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Personally I think people are getting a bit too excited. Ian's posts from last night where talking about the start of December, which is still 2 weeks away, as everyone knows a lot can change in that period of time. I've seen some very great looking charts from the GFS, but they are all in FI! and it never looks particularly cold for the UK. So, as always until these great looking charts get into the reliable timeframe I think people should temper their excitement. The background signals do look great, but that doesn't gurantee cold.
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..think the forecast is at 19.25 approx.
Summer 2022 Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
We finally have the answer!