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Barry12

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Everything posted by Barry12

  1. Met Office Warnings Issued For: West Yorkshire Yellow early warning of snow From: 1200 on Tue 8 November To: 0900 on Wed 9 November Updated 4 hours ago Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m. Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, there is the potential for snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this.Please be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions in some areas.
  2. ECM 00z, GFS 12z, and many of the GEFS perturbations are showing another attempt at ridging towards Greenland around day 10. GLOSEA5 is also showing support for blocking mid/late Nov so there is certainly a bit of support for the ECM. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a growing trend.
  3. Certainly a cold next 10 days if ECM is correct... No mild Atlantic weather to be seen...
  4. It's actually ECM, UKMO, JMA, NASA, NAVGEM vs GFS at the moment... GFS If the GFS is correct here, it will be the biggest upset since Leicester won the league!
  5. Yes Frosty its staying cold throughout the reliable according to the GFS 18Z, just got to be patient and wait for the real cold that will come later. patience grasshoppers...
  6. One month could be well below average with significant snowfall and the other 2 months mild, averaging out at average. I'd take that!
  7. NH profile looks better on this run which is more important down the line...
  8. Met Office seem to disagree with this forecast, but we'll see whos closer to the mark come March 1st. Best of luck iapennell
  9. You know we are in a good position when one individual GFS run in FI has the Atlantic influencing our weather for a short period of time, is the worst thing we've seen in weeks. In the reliable timeframe we have cold air incoming from the East bringing temperature below average for the whole of the UK. We have a massively negative AO, GLOSEA and the EC46 are forecasting mostly N/NW winds for the UK for most of November. We are in a great position, theirs no need to be negative.
  10. Finally the good charts have made it into the reliable, a look at the ECM, GFS, UKMO at day 6- All agree on a ridge building to our NW, and cold air sweeping into the UK from the East. ECM and GFS agree on atleast -4 uppers for most of the UK Pretty impressive for the start of November!
  11. A quick summary of next week from the GFS 06Z before the 12z runs... Monday A very mild day with temperatures widely into the mid teens, possibly late teens in some areas in the south. Dry apart from far Northern Scotland that could have some heavy rain. Tuesday Still a mild day for the south with 14-15C in the south, but colder air starts to move into the North making it feel rather chilly, especially in Scotland with temperatures stuck in the mid single figures. Bit of t'old rain clipping the far north of Scotland. Wednesday Feeling colder for the whole of the UK with temperatures ranging from 5-10C widely, dry unless you happen to live on a Scottish Island! Thursday Remaining cold with temperatures struggling to get into double figures, dry for most apart from NI and western Scotland where heavy rain is possible. Friday Slightly less cold but still feeling chilly, temperatures just about getting into double figures, but remaining very cold in Scotland with temperatures remaining in mid single figures. A band of heavy rain moves in Friday night/Saturday morning. The Weekend Staying cold with temperatures slightly below average, with some sharp frosts for the North of the UK. So in summary - a mild start to the week before colder air moves in by mid week, making it feel much colder especially to the North of the UK, with some frosty mornings! The colder air remains for the weekend. Nothing extreme but feeling seasonal, hopefully by week 2 we can import some properly cold air and get some snow finally.
  12. Yeah, far better run in terms of Greenland heights, who said the blocking is starting to disappear!?
  13. It's only the 28th October so you can't expect deep cold as you say, but the colder/cooler charts aren't being pushed back to low res? by day 4 colder air starts to move into Scotland, and the whole of the UK is in colder air by day 5.
  14. Brilliant GFS run in FI, as a ridge moves into Greenland and we start to pick up a cold flow from the North East Just hope it can move into the reliable timeframe, but it does having support from the Met Office with a cold flow from the north as we move into November, very promising signs!
  15. Can't wait frosty! It could even reach the dizzy heights of 13C in our neck of the woods, I think I'll get my BBQ out! The GFS have average temperatures throughout, but still plenty of blocking, massive differences at day 7, so plenty more changes to come.
  16. The charts I posted are actually from the GFS, but yes I agree with that.
  17. I've got to admit I'm a bit underwhelmed with the output this morning, ECM would have average to above average temperatures throughout. And while the Northern hemisphere is still looking blocked - which is far better than last year. It's still nowhere near as good as it was just 48-72 hours ago. The GFS chart on the left is the forecast for the 31st October 48 hours ago, the right is the current forecast Lets hope the 'good' charts staying in the 7-10 day range isn't a theme this year!
  18. Big differences at just day 6 on the GFS and UKMO Nothing is settled yet...
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