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ciel
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Posts posted by ciel
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6 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:Another stunning morning, no doubt there will be some decent convective cloudscapes later:
A hard frost at first light this morning, -5C. Turned out decent enough with the frost quickly melting.
Some convective clouds this afternoon, but nothing spectacular.
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5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:
I'm wondering what impact obesity will have on the CFR. Not seen any mention yet .. does China even have an obesity problem ?
Not seen anything either, but it is well documented that obesity does impair lung function. Could well be an underlying condition which would affect outcomes.
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The link below was posted here several pages back and might go some way to dispel any notion that the elderly might be responsible for the spread of the illness.
The majority of confirmed cases were in the age group 30yr - 69yr.
Of course, the impact of the illness has greater impact on the 70yr + age group.
• China: age distribution of novel coronavirus patients 2020 | Statista
WWW.STATISTA.COMAccording to a medical analysis based on 44,672 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in China published in February 2020, most patients aged...-
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52 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:
It's a bit different here in France. People go to the doctor for everything and you never leave without a prescription for something! My doctor has an open surgery from 0800 to 1200 on a Monday (yes, just drop in and be seen) and he often over runs by an hour or so after midday. He then does house calls between 1200 and 2000. More to the point, he always has time for you. I'm afraid I have no idea about Italy - maybe there is more of a resistance to medical intervention among the elderly - anyone know?
Yes, I have had experience of good French medical care.
And no, I know nothing about the Italian circumstances and would't presume to do so.
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18 minutes ago, emax said:
As far as people complaining about hand washing advice, people will pick holes in anything, no matter what.
What does gripe me, is peoples reliance SOOOOO much on being told what to do. The government have advised to wash your hands, but people need to be told exactly how to wash their hands? Is the population really that dim that they need to be told every little way to live their lives? Maybe they are, who knows.
I even heard someone on the radio complaining that the government isnt handing out hand sanitiser to everyone, and that they should be doing more. Really? If there was even the manufacturing amounts to do such a thing, people should mostly buy it, and not expect absolutely everything for free!
No need to shout. Or do the ???? thing etc. Some try to give relevant info.
I ( old) was was referring back to basic infection control in operating theatres, which may, or may not be relevant now.
No-one is co-cerced or has to follow that advice if they think they know better.. It may be out of date advice or irrelevant in the current situation?
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1 hour ago, Snowycat said:
I do understand and accept your take on this but I think we should be informed more frequently of locations, just my own preference I guess.
I agree. It is responsible, on a personal (older person) and community level, to avoid cluster areas. And I don't think publishing locations is onerous for officialdom, after all they will be in possession of that information anyway. Credible transparency reduces concerns.
Again, on a personal level, I have postponed making holiday arrangements until I assess travel risks - which btw won't depend on NW opinions regarding concerns.
On two picky notes, the omnipresent official advice on hand washing has not emphasised the importance of washing under rings and wrist-watches, and also what do you do with a tissue if you cough/sneeze into a tissue in a supermarket, public transport, theatre etc.
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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
Could it be possible that it peaks close to summer, before dying away, and perhaps emerging come next Winter! I feel Feb with all the appropriate protocol in place.. Ie.. Travel restrictions and correct hygiene we can keep this from becoming devastating!! Yes it may well become very serious, but I'm far from convinced it will become known as the most notorious virus that ever occurred to the human race!! Also consider that we may well have a vaccination programme in place Inside the next 12 months.. I just hope and prey that we can keep it in check prior to this.
It is not known whether or not CV will die down over the summer (ref previous posts and the net) - or die down and re-emerge next winter in a mutated form.
The scientific consensus is that a vaccination will not be available within 12 months. This has implications for older or vulnerable persons now and next winter.
I don't know what you mean by travel restrictions, but the benefit of closing borders has been deemed as of uncertain benefit in contolling spread.
The most significant issue, here, in effecting control is to trace the contacts of the two people affected by community spread.
The situation is uncertain.
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
I think it's a bold statement to say millions and millions will die from this virus! How many died in a massively populated China! Yes it's still early days, but I can't see it being a rival for Spanish flu.... 500 million infected with 20-50 million deaths. The horrible pandemic known as black death brought 75-200 million deaths between 1347 and 1351.And just to bring you some of the latest stats regarding this virus..
Coronavirus cases... 92,332.
Deaths....3,137
Recovered...48,458.
Active cases.. 40,737 currently Infected patients.
33,639..80% in mild condition.
7,098..17% serious or critical.
Closed cases.. 51,595..cases which had an outcome.
48,458..94% recovered/discharged.
3,137...6% deaths.
Info courtesy of worldometer. Info.
Yes, this thread's been there and gone there for weeks, reference multiple stats and previous posts.
The jury's out as to how the virus will develop.
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@101_North Hope she stays safe until rescued. Extreme weather events may be exciting, but sometimes there are extreme consequences.
However, here, a very nice afternoon for a walk, sunny and warm, well just 9C. The fields are beginning to dry out, but I’m not confident that it won’t take much rainfall for the quagmire, together with tractor difficulties, to return.
Daffs coming on.
Fetterie in the sun
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5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:
First time i have posted in here but been following this thread for a while now
there is just one comment from me regarding all this and it's not been mentioned i don't think but what about pets?,can they spread the virus,we talk about us touching things but what about your pet/s,i have a cat now(18 months old) and never had one but she is out most of the time,what will she bring in on her paws etc after trudging about for hours on end
just a thought
me too have sanitizes at hand but your mind boggles sometimes like what have i touched and can i remember what i have touched from one area to another and it's starting to drill in my head now that every time i go anywhere i have to wash or sanitize,i even steer wide of folk in crowded places and they may look at you as if you have done something wrong,crazy lol
THIS VIRUS NEEDS CAPPING AND A VACCINE FINDING FAST.
Info regarding pets
Can I catch coronavirus from my pet? - Vet Help Direct
VETHELPDIRECT.COMCan dogs, cats or other pets carry coronavirus? In this blog, we’re going to look at the evidence, and suggest ways you can protect your pets and yourself -
5 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
You'd be surprised at how gullible some of the older generation are where stalkermedia is concerned. I got shot down the other day by my mother and 3 of her friends for saying that a blatantly sfx'd/photoshoped video of a girl taking off like a helicopter from having her hair blow around during a storm, another example is the shopped vid of an orca coming out of the water and 'eating' a person walking along a beach, and another of the moon 'turning green' a couple years back.
And the reason why I get shot down is because their friends wouldn't post the video if it wasn't true....
This is why fake news/info is so prevalent, and why I think that the Gov' should start essentially 'shoehorning' factual information into things like soaps (whilst they have the chance) as they tend to spend more time discussing what's going on in EastEnders/Emmerdale etc than anything else and would help the spread of accurate information. Even if it's just the basic hygiene stuff about washing hands/cleaning etc.
Yes, social media is a hot-bed of fake news. But my experience is that the majority of older people are more wised up than to believe any old nonsense.
However, I would find it very concerning if a government set a precedent in directing the content of storylines in soaps.(not that I watch them, anyway)
I'm fairly sure that there will be multiple official information campaigns put out there regarding 'basic hygeine' etc. available to all.
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23 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
Personally, I'm wondering how long it's going to take before they storyline it into the soaps
They'd probably get more accurate info across to more of the older generation that way too. If the majority are anything like my mother they're more likely to believe what's shown on them than the dodgy stuff floating around on facebook/stalkermedia.
That's a rather sweeping statement. From what I read on here, I see no evidence that older persons are more likely to believe misinformation than younger ones, perhaps the reverse.
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:
But is the susceptibility of the aged due to the rapid, and inescapable, decline in the immune response, rather than with health, in terms of what an annual checkup would reveal?
If it is, one could be as 'fit as a fiddle' and still be 10 times more prone than most others?
21 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:Absolutely ... and the decline in ability of cells to repair the damage done. There was a chart showing the differences, over time, in the CT scans for young to old... everybody had patches on the lung (even those with no visible symptoms) ...the time it took to clear, if at all, increased with each age.
Yes, it appears that immunosenescence is inevitable.
There is conflicting evidence as to whether lifestyle ( sleep, exercise, avoiding stress, healthy diet, special foods) can delay these changes, but perhaps such issues are more relevant to health-span as opposed to life-span.
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From what I read, ( on reliable sources hopefully) I don't think this "novel' virus will wipe out all humanity, but it is a grave warning for the future.
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19 minutes ago, snowdog said:
I have been following this thread for some time.I am still puzzled about the severity of the virus.Obviously it must be bad for all governments to react to it so swiftly.
What happens to the cases that are straight away taken in to hospital? Are they already very poorly, or are they lying on a hospital bed just waiting to see what happens?
Why are there not many first hand accounts from people that have the virus? I would have thought the internet would be full of their stories !
I suspect many will be unwilling to disclose their identity for fear of blame/backlash.
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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
I can understand WHO not wanting to apportion blame but to be blunt the virus started in China and has been attributed to the poor hygiene and to us westerners what we perceive as weird eating habits over there .
This is the second virus caused by China after SARS . The virus didn’t just land from another planet on an alien space craft .
Nor did HIV, Ebola, Ecoli bacterium, Plague, Famine etc, etc or CJS (I know that is not a virus but still relevant).
Instead of inciting a blame game with all the racial ramifications, international community should be investing in research, education and aid.
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Apart from the fact that Trump has appointed a science sceptic to be in charge of the Covid-19 issues in the USA, of course he was right to advocate handwashing etc as a means of personal precaution from Covid infection, or indeed other infections such as flu. Dr Tedros and our own ‘experts’ have confirmed that.
However, having kept an eye on WHO pronouncements over the weeks, I see no other statements which would suggest that Dr Tedros does not consider Covid-19 to be a serious global threat, mainly because (as has been stated umpteen times on here) there is no vaccine available and no herd immunity.
It’s enlightening to note that some think an additional xK elderly or infirm persons are simply expendable because they, the some, believe that the novel Covid-19 is just another additional seasonal flu.
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7 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:
I work in a school with 1000 students and 150 staff and my view is that deep cleans are pointless.
Droplet infection is not active over time and distance so sanitising surfaces is a yes, aerosolized infection through sneezing, coughing, talking, breathing remains in the airflow and survives the test of time and distance via air handling units, air conditioning, vents and ducts etc. As seen on the diamond cruise ship you can self isolate all you want but with an open passage of air throughout the ship you will breath in those tiny 1 nanometer particles that will go straight down into your Alveoli and infect you
I wasn't actually commenting on the value or otherwise of deep cleaning, but presumably the authorities were advised from above to carry this out.
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4 minutes ago, Climate Man said:
Surely the kid should stay at home and the kids should go to school.
I understand the school has been closed for a 'deep clean'. Whether it remains closed or not, I suppose, will depend on the outcome of contact tracing/testing or the ever changing 'official' advice.
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With regard to the actions some schools have taken in closure or temporary closure, the head teachers were surely acting responsibly towards their students and the wider public, at least until they clarified the rather confusing advice given by Hancock yesterday, ascertained whether or not any children/staff/ family members were showing signs of illness and felt sufficiently informed to provide official advice to those concerned.
The undermining of the serious nature of Covid-19 or containment precautions may be more of a problem than sending a few children home.
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1 hour ago, Coopsy said:
Hi all,
I wondered if anyone could advise - I'm looking at getting my snow fix (just to see it on the hills this winter would be something for me)
I'm thinking of spending a long weekend in the Cairngorms. Cottage, log fire, wine - that kind of thing. Some places I've looked at are Ballater, Braemar, Tomintoul, Aviemore and Grantown-on-Spey.
Would I go wrong getting an air bnb in any of these places and travelling around the area sightseeing?
Appreciate any insight. Thanks
I would tend to agree with Norrance above.
I was in Ballater and Tomintoul last Thursday, albeit before the weekend snow event, and the snow cover around there was quite sparse. A peek at the Cairngorm webcams this morning indicates quite a snowy scene there at present, and so maybe the area between Aviemore and Grantown-on-Spey would be worth considering, and as has been said, is a good starting point for exploring further west.
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14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:
I can still recall visiting Bletchley's meat market, as a child, back in the early 1960s: pigs, cattle, sheep and goats, all confined in adjacent, filthy pens; and the biggest treat of all? Being allowed to watch the headless chickens run around in circles!...And you should see some of the filthy practices that still go-on inside British abattoirs!
It ain't that long, since we ourselves partook of some rather unwholesome/highly questionable practices, regarding our food-production...?
Not forgetting about all those nasties which require to be washed off American chicken carcasses on account of gross husbandry practices over there.
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5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:
Does Norovirus go away in summer?
Other means of contamination are now considered to be urine and crap.....don't read on if you've having/just had your lunch.
PUBSONLINE.INFORMS.ORGI'll be avoiding public toilets for the forseeable and watch those farts too ...
I understand the MERS virus actually thrived in hot weather. And so I suppose it is a question of wait and see regarding Covid-19.
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After an early morning of rain/sleet it has been heavily snowing fat wet flakes for the past hour or so. They are catching on the grass, but turning the perma-puddles in the yard into sludge.
I suspect the local roads will have quite a covering, which is annoying as I have to go out, soon, on the important mission of posting a birthday card for eldest grandson.
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Novel Coronavirus – China
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Even if that fatality rate is anywhere accurate, it is unlikely to be distributed equally between different age groups.