jules216

Meanwhile at my home another advection of hot air incomming. Already had +26°C Yesterday in Slovakia.

Its Been a while since Scandinavian high vanished in June 2023. Who would have thought that the pattern would be so persistant after then.

daz_4 yes makes you wonder what will happen if we get "Egypt" advection in July.

daz_4 analog wise i still like 2016 most.this Has not changed since February forecast.

daz_4 synoptically close to 2016 but the trough is anchored too much west. Hence crazy warm advections and only brief periods of frost. This Easter looks remarkable,just look at the temperature forecast for Monday. This Sahara advection in the air already here today. Easter 2023 we had snow!

Weather-history i Can apply most pretty Well in general to Slovakia for March however. About end of first decade in March came cold spell. The combined anomally vs what clusters start seing in the begining of March. I am quite satisfied with this as starting point.

My spring analogs. I Can already detect height rises to NE to be catalyst of ,2 week cold snap in central Europe. Apríl mild and May black sea low and changeable. Low drought risk in Europe. There you go

Catacol Well SSW in a sense is these days also a meaning of a substantial event of polar stratospheric warming. The definition of 5 days in a row of easterlies ať 10hPa and split like 2012,2018 of course didnt happen. But what happened was a reflective event similar to January 2007 and based on that I did warn of similar outcome in February. Do you think that I didnt read A.Butler papers and posts? I do follow all in detail. Now I ask you, did you follow 17.1.1987 displacement/reflective event that brought/induced the end of very favorable pattern to date only to bring 6 weeks of no winter fór it to return in March. The best analog matches for second half of winter are 1998,2007 and 1987 in general winter European circullation. You Can disagree but if you disagree and say I am wrong then pull out this February so far vs the blend of those years. Or you want to say that I am just guessing again and just being in luck with the years? What was your forecast anyway? How did your thoughts pan out in detail?

If anyone is interested the UK lowest temperature this winter is from start of December here in Foregin - North West of Carrbridge -17.5°C, this is unoficial of course from Scottish Frost hunters. i was Happy to assist in pin point this location in advance of station instalation.

cheeky_monkey yes and I am shaking my head when I read about positive background signals. Because they were never really there,throw in the super strong +IOD in the mix and it looks even worse. Also re. the SSW I would reccomend in future to print this out and stick on the wall for everybody. The regimes around SSW and what usually followed. You Can follow the lag after this winter SSW which onset correlated with established -NAO and you Can see that with further lag there is more and more yellow/Orange in Europe. Textbook stuff really.

North-Easterly Blast Well thats about it for Slovakia too, only february 1983 was okay. With All other strong Ninos we had about 7-10 days spell of Snow and cold sometimes 2. That is what happened this winter too. What did verify very well that in those strong Ninos there was always a snap of Snow in november and exactly this has happened this winter too. So basically background signals verified very well,sadly.

mulzy No its not. Who told you that background signals were good? This is most bizzare presumption. Just look at best matching Februaries - 1998 and 2007 both were strong east based EL Ninos. From where did this favorable background falacy originate? When was last good winter under strong,nearly super Nino? I see these 2015/16, 2006/07, 1997/98, 1982/83, 1972/73 etc. Tell me how are these favorable background signals if in All those Európe suffered mild eternity in winter.

Derecho yes I mentioned 1998 as good analóg too. I have forward referenced it to possibly interesting analóg blend fór next winter 1998/99 and 2007/08 or 2016/17 here in central Europe. The provisional idea is for very little drought worry spring/summer then dry pattern setting Up in autumn. And later the cold building from the east/western Russia next winter. This is general idea going forward this year and Beyond. May looks particullary wet here in central Europe.

Met4Cast look at this from 15.1 referencing 2006/07 etc. It was ať tíme all were very bullish about February. I knew way before then how will it Evolve, how is IT a coincidence? This is not first time believe me, I occasionaly post when I see it being suitable in models over the past 1-2 years. Dont Remember when was I really wrong. i Can look All Up but dont know its necessary to bother.

Met4Cast you have just said what I echoed too,broascale changes in polar field, SSW etc. How come I didnt need to be expert in GSDM field yet I managed to see in advance a SSW that would re-shuffle the good synoptics. I even mentioned it in models thread way in advance. Very similar f.ucked up SSW happened in January 2007,2015 etc. How come All the tools/people/mets/UKMo hot it wrong big time even though they scrutinize GSDM or incorporate it in their algoritm? Magic

Nick F Its actually quite simple. Its easy to follow GSDM on Victor Gensini website and it takes about a week to realize that even the GLAAM/GWO forecasts are as prone to get IT wrong as numerical models like GFS day 16 lol. When I followed the GWO graph it went from high AMP. Phase 7 to almost COD in a space of few days. So here you are, you Can be expert user im torques etc. but it requires also fórecasting accurately the Global winds/precipitation etc. If we cant forecast weather over 6 days ahead in general how come some think that tropical weather forecast post day 14 will be accurate. If people understand this that IT would be so múch more easier. i Remember post by Tamara in January where She was quite bullish about more favorable blocking in high lats. Taken look at Gensini GWO samé day and it was indeed showing big amplitude Nino atractor Phase 5-7, but in 2 days time IT vahished in amplitude and barely did 4-6 low amp. So there you are. And here lies the difference when using the right analogs, because they did show you what route did the MJO etc. took the same time in dáte and you seen that IT struggles and collapsed ať Phase 7 etc. Look example od analóg 2006/07 then MJO collapsed near Phase 7 in January. Look at the outcome in February vs this year. amazing isnt it? Very good east based EL Nino analog. I Can name many occasions this worked very much flawless and with no need to get a degree or doctorate in understanding GSDM as its a tool usefull when forecast turns out already 15+ days, and when does it happen?

mulzy generally we can add about +0.5/1 and also analogs with no 500mb height signal tend to verify with Higher 500mb anomally in the south of Europe.

Met4Cast but again there were lot of occasions where cold Scandinavia equaled mild central Europe and example being february 2007. Last mild month in Scandinavia really June 2023 was the last colder month here,almost inverse correlation.

Met4Cast -QBO is used fór Higher probability of SSW who's problem is that they presume relationship of SSW = cold. I have a lot of evidence where SSW "f.cked Up " good looking pattern in past and that is why scientists like Daniela Domeisen also try to match pattern at onset of SSW with post SSW outcome. Its so complex and I dont understand the bias again of using only the good SSW outcome and test/majority gets ignored. And of course you end up here where we are now scratching heads

Met4Cast there was no analog in my list that was pointing to a cold winter this year or last year. You might be following biased forecasters analogs. Actually strong east based Ninos like 1925/26,2006/07 and 2015/16 verified very well. All 3 were super mild februaries in central Europe and Guess what we are on track fór oné of the mildest ever this year. I never understood from where a cold February notion here was touted so much prior to winter.

Nick F that is why analog based forecast is the best in my opinion in Europe also including factors like SST,Legacy warmth from summer/autumn etc. The last time there was meaningful winter in central Europe it was after relatively cool summer and unsettled. i dont Remember when was last time that really hot summer was not followed by very mild winter. Anyway the best analogs like 1925/26, 2006/07 or 2015/16 performed very well and perhaps 2004/05 too,but the last one is not following cold February this year which is a shame. There was a very good signál of a cold spell 2 ND half of november which materialised then only really 1-2 snaps was anticipated which Also happened. So in my view also the GSDM/AAM/MJO is pretty useless as fórecasting tool because its Also a forecast of SST/tropical precipitation. There are múch better seasonal tools then MJO and they do verify ever since I am using them. There is too múch sucking on American tits here - trying to use fór Európe what they use fór USA there and its not working. Dont forget Also a lot on Americanwx like here on netweather just are so cold biased that they tried to use/flip everything that "might" have brought them cold winter and we know if didnt happen. There is múch better chance of cold winter next year when/if analogs like 1998/99, 2005/06 or 2016/17 would still hold merrit

What are the odds that after "European blocking" with Zero cold air to tap in to(ECMWF) like i said here weeks ago that post SSW reversal we will transfer to west based -NAO? Like it would matter anyway. I am last one here to desire cold in spring the ship has already sailed below 500m altitude. What a truly misserable second half of winter and truly as front loaded winter as it gets akin to LA Nina and not a backloaded winter like "EL Nino" what will the "experts" say now?

That ECM i think its moving day by day further back, thats why i was writing about the tíme is running out. Its painfull here in central Europe to watch how low Pressure struggles to clear further east as the Russian blocking high is delaying everything. And interesting charts again only starting later. Who knows how we manage a straight NE out of Urals. Its quite frustrating watch this arrival of cold that IS still so uncertain.

London ensembles showing about 2 day cold snap, at the moment all hope is pinned on isolated output as it is far from ensemble support. On the face value ensemble mean on GFS Has shifted momentum towards lack luster -4 T850 mean where EPS were at -6°C t850 last night. The reason being that a lot of ensembles are getting rid of really low heights in central Europe and instead showing lack luster SE/E flow under Higher Pressure. And we are slowly easing out of winter with every single delay.

jellybaby1969 like example I present Meteogram on 6Z GFS for Leeds in central UK. How much colder T850hPa you need to be under to achieve even 24hr of snow on the ground? This one has interval of +5/+2 and you need like ať least +1/-4 interval even at +1 and cold sunshine you will see crazy snowmelt as the ground is not Frozen to 20cm depth like here. Your base needs to be at least 24h under -5°C othewise its just going to turn in to muck. The example is 2018 strong easterlies -16 uppers. Now what are the lowest ensembles,maybe -8 and maybe for 2 days if lucky? Or is IT sufficient for you just to see a few flakes Falling?