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    Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
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  1. Yes very much like CP Nina. Also the 500mb height anomalies from UKMO reflect CP La Nina winter anomalies. The NAO response is strogest in Jan/Feb with a very + look on CP Nina composite anomalies
  2. my expectations have slightly lowered reading about the differences between CP and EP La Ninas for Europe as we see ENSO 1.2 warming and 3.4 cooling. Modoki La Nina as was mentioned by @Snowy Hibbo almost beyond belief difference for us
  3. @SqueakheartLW Looking at some of your factors in November it looks more like moderate La Nina and neutral IOD, things of course may change, but looking at ONI for OND it will probably bottom @ - 1.2 ish, I would personally go with moderate La Nina analogs on the strong end of moderate, although I wish it would be weaker but if we go anything close to -1.4 there are crap recent winters like 2007/08 or 1999/00. From September model summary it looks like the ones which went with weaker Nina had more blocked anomalies and the ones like UKMO for example had a strong Nina and very zonal look. Fingers crossed for ONI not too much below -1.2
  4. Yes,interesting thoughts allround.There were a good few of them interesting exchanges already weeks before if you follow my tweets back. Nina is getting stronger than I would like to see and now looks like a moderate event. Models mean 3.4 region now at -1.2 Nov/Dec. Could mean more winter interest in Nov/Dec then Jan/Feb
  5. Wouldn't it be typical if we do get -NAO in December but from a pathway of East Conus high shifting to form a west based -NAO and trough just stuck over UK with inability to tap in to cold source and with that advection of massive high pressure to the central east Europe that then moves across Scandinavia to form a Sceuro high. A nightmare scenario for sure
  6. I have compiled my summer forecast based on criteria of emerging weak La Nina after week +ENSO and strong hurricane season forecast back in May. The general 500mb outcome against analogs proved very useful. One think I noted that low heights in analogs were much lower then actually materialized in June and August. There is clear inability of lower heights to establish where we need them to = Mediterranean. The Scandi high pressure doesn't seem to have problem being as strong as advocated. From the years I looked that can be good analogs for winter there was a clear signal of low heights in Europe,almost a reverse of dreaded Euro high of recent winters. I can almost foresee where this winter can go wrong and that is the low heights getting stuck in wrong place around UK/IE somewhere and instead of promising Scandi block we will end up with Sceuro block. Not a showery SW-W regime but more like promising synoptics in wrong place to advect cold from really cold source from E/NE. Most of the weak or moderate La Nina winters have a pronounced euro trough anomaly. Also Andrej @Recretos alluded to this exactly few days ago in the autumn forecast at SWE. Here is what he mentioned and I agree with this notion: "The quick look at the CFSv2 model trends reveals the exact same wave train, with the big temperature difference over Europe. That is simply because of the positioning of the European low-pressure area in this wave train. A simple movement of a few hundred to thousand kilometers north-south can create an entirely different temperature picture. That is why Europe is the biggest wildcard in this wave train pattern. North America is fairly fixed since it is heavily influenced by La Nina and the Pacific pattern." Already summer ended with much above average precipitation in Europe then recently as a direct feedback from La Nina, it is forecast to even strengthen during autumn,although seasonal wavelenghts are different in winter then in summer I believe the odds are much better for low pressure anomaly in Europe. The biggest question mark will be weather the wave train can cause it to be placed right for most of Europe to benefit from cold and that Scandi high doesn't become Sceuro high to cut us from source of cold air and bring only weak faux cold.
  7. @sebastiaan1973 From August ENSO multimodel updates I reckon a week borderline moderate event is likely but I dont know weather QBO mess can be qualified as either westerly or easterly although higher up its looking like new westerly cycle will begin soon.Not easy to know what cards do we have coming in to cold season
  8. I believe there is a certain path developing where this winter is heading, a while back there was an interesting twitter exchange that we had with Matt Hugo and Anthony Masiello about the Aleutian high that is going to be present this winter as we see the trend of Nina to be now more in moderate strength then a weak affair. The first in line will be the Pacific jet pattern-behavior and ability of its poleward trajectory that can cause downstream Rossby wave train and favorable wave2 tropospheric configuration to keep the lid on perhaps unfavorable top to bottom stratospheric configuration akin to Nov/Dec 2010. Here probably lies the notion of front loaded winter as a lack of Aleutian low top to bottom stratospheric weakening isn't going to happen as also QBO at 1hPa will be in westerly phase. For followers with advanced knowledge these tweets can be seen as self explanatory and visionary accustomed to Masiello himself.
  9. yes, I agree week to moderate borderline is perfect but ONI around -1.5C in winter would be terrible, might mean that November could be the wintriest month of all
  10. Unsettled weather in the UK/Ireland is September is well within the expectations of emerging weak La Nina analogs. The largest anomaly is the persistent high pressure centered over Baltics/East-Central Europe. The CFS weeklies rather nicely match the analogs even on the hemispheric view. Fast forward to November and it will look a lot more interesting
  11. @CreweCold I like the look of the most recent CFS monthly charts myself for early winter ideas. Now it may not mean anything(CFS)also Cansip update will come out tomorrow and also Glosea and ECMWF seasonals withing next week or so. Would be interesting weather the positive teleconnections can overwrite signals of perhaps poor SST and recent NAO trends.
  12. I rate world climate services very high.Interesting to have independently come up with simillar ideas.Smart brains think alike Only joking of course
  13. @sebastiaan1973 Interesting coincident with the articles you have linked here with my post from yesterday in the autumn banter thread. Perhaps I could have written that post in this section. Here is the link. I have discovered something interesting and that in years where ENSO switched to La Nina in autumn in all seven related years we have seen MJO in November in phases 5-8 also combined height anomaly suggested NAO blocking, almost exactly what your linked article suggests.
  14. Today I spent a lot of time studying IOD. I was working out the relationship between IOD, ENSO and MJO. There is a connnection between IOD and ENSO, mostly during strong events. During weak La Nina IOD tends to be in neutral/negative phase. Autumns of 1983,1995,1998,2005,2010 and 2016 are very representative. All these years had MJOs in the phases between 5-7 in November, also the propensity of MJO phases 6 and 7 in La Nina is the strongest in November/December period. See the combined November height anomaly of these years. Honestly, I didn't go any further into the winter, but I'm starting to feel good about November, I'm almost ready to put my reputation on the table now and say it will be surprisingly cold.
  15. Always enjoy snow almost like when I was young. My early childhood between 1988-1992 was plagued with that pesky +NAO winter regimes. Strangely period between 1990 and 1994 had very cold autumns and disapointing winters,but then came 1995/96 which was magical. I am bit jealous not being a child of 80s as those were amazing winters
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