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jules216

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    Hollywood, Co Wicklow, 195m, West Wicklow frost hollow
  • Weather Preferences
    continental climate

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  1. this is the geopotential height anomaly in Februaries for the years with SSW (1979,1980,2001)
  2. no he hasn't but what did he forecast then? some cyclonic some easterly incursion, kind of covers all the basis,hence my reference to politics, I know he can't forecast more specifics as he would hazard with his reputation as netweather depends on subscribers, its much easier for the likes of ourselves to lay it down in details as its just for fun, the point is that at the end of the month we struggle to decipher the success rate of the forecast as members can't even agree on what weather we had, not what will happen in future,funnily
  3. That is the greatest indicator that there were hardly any Easterly incursions as of yet in Eastern Europe let alone UK,once again the rhetoric of these forecastscover all options so at the end of the time they can claim some sucess,its a low risk low gain strategy, very much like politics these days I guess
  4. There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!
  5. Can I ask Stratospheric experts why is tropospheric Aleutian Low and SIberian High combination good for cold weather going forward for us, what favorable mechanisms are in play then, is it because it causes EAMT events caused by Rossby waves that penetrate towards Stratosphere or something else? Also is Aleutian anticyclone good for pertubering stratosheric polar vortex through generating gravity waves? I am a bit confused as to what is the ideal pattern for us and Europe re.cold weather prospect in relation to area around Aleutians within both Stratosphere and Troposfere. Would appreciate a reasonably simplistic explanation if there is such a thing re. these complicated teleconections.lol. Thanks
  6. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    First flakes falling here as well,unusually it came across to West Wicklow, very early this year great start to winter must say,nice to see the snow clouds above unfortunately clearance from West so that's it for us
  7. there should be reasonable shift westwards into Eastern Europe from yesterdays and today snowfall, I can certainly confirm that about 30% of Slovakia is now covered with snow, I was lucky enough to be over there to get my 2nd winter fix already this year,heh. Picture taken from village of Sumiac in Low Tatras national park,kids and dog enjoyed it as well, I hope UK and IE will share some of that joy too this winter as we do not deserve this 13 degrees muck we have today for the rest of the winter.
  8. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    there should be numerous opportunities for you guys up North for some early season snowfall this week, first as early as Thursday AM accorging to HIRLAM and APREGE,only caveat is that you might have to wake up early to see it, but don't worry as we hope to join the party over the weekend if that low pressure tracks over the Irish Sea
  9. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    My dear Irish and Northern Irish friends, have the lords of weather finally released the jinx since March 2013 or better December 2010 for the folks further south? We have seen cold and snow shunted east for most of the time in to Continental Europe, will it happen again or finally the pressure patterns will align right for us to be in the game, that is a cold set of ensembles for location near me, Blessington, co.Wicklow
  10. Had my second winter fix this month again was lucky to time my holidays with the cold north westerly airflow this weekend,this is from a village called Sumiac in Low Tatras(Slovakia)at 900m.asl,one of many spectacularly remote settlements,where 50k will land you an amazing wooden type traditional house in the middle of unspoiled nature a home of many wolves and bears,back to Ireland today so know what to expect
  11. Thanks for your opinion on this matter Catacol,I thought that LA Nina has no great temperature impact in Europe in Winter, apparently it promotes SouthEastern USA ridge,I have seen it on met office website some time ago,Europe was neither cold or warm, what you present above is far more complex, I don't know why then Metoffice present those maps to public,probably CP LA Nina and EP La Nina neutralise each other and yield average figures,it seems like one gets far more access to interesting findings by private individuals rather then official sources like UK Met,Met.ie etc,wonder how do they spend tax payers money appart from presenting simple data that we can decipher from the likes of meteociel,americanwx etc.For fact I know that our own most respected Climatologist in Slovakia has no idea about GLAAM,EAMT,GWO.lol
  12. Can I ask what are the atmospehic responses that prevent blocking occurring during very strong LA Nina events? Are there any scientific research papers on this?thanks
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    guys to cheer you up a bit I had a look at this mornings EC ensembles for my location in Slovakia from our nat.weather agency SHMU and they do nice graphics how the operational run stands in the ensembles, on the attachment the 4th chart is for mean sea level preasure, operational is in red squares and ensemble mean is black line, you can see the OP is 1025hPA, mean is amout 10hPA lower and some ensembles go as low as 1005hPa, that is for next wednesday/thursday, if you want GFS to verify then lower pressure is better as it reflects better aligned block as Slovakia is bang in Central Europe, we will have all to play for as the scatter is huge!
  14. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Hi guys, sorry for maybe off topic question, but I think it might be model related as we stand, is it true that models have lack of satellite data over Greenland? I saw it written here before when models had no clue during blocking period,could that contribute to the fact of huge swings and forecast uncertainty even at 5 days range? If so, is there any link to official sources that could confirm this? thanks
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