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jules216

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    Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
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    continental climate

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  1. Last bit of snow/compacted ice will go down the drain this weekend, mind you not far from here there is solid 40 to 45 cm of "concrete" from snowfall two weeks ago, the thaw is very slow as we still got to around -8C this week with highs of only 4 to 5C. If ECMWF verifies we can go very low despite the date, almost like last year with SSW, last week of Feb was coldest of the winter, that has been the case recently of a cold spell at the beginning of March sometimes lasting towards Easter.
  2. 🙂 Yes @Summer Sun observing a downward trend in last runs where mean is dropping slightly more from -2C now to -6C for those days. there is another cluster that drops down around day 14-15. Perhaps an indicator that through from Scandi is dropping more westwards then originally anticipated. A lot more correction west needs to happen to effect UK, I think there will be another chance of this around day 13-16 mark,firstly we need to prevent the high from sinking.
  3. Perhaps last chance saloon looming? ECMWF actually produced -16C in 850hPa for my location next weekend. I wonder had the atmosphere made its mind up and will start to behave like in El Nino. SOI has tanked, MJO now in phase 8, shame it is about 1 month too late, polar stratosphere now cooling and that might hinder now more amplification, that would be an irony when tropics start to cooperate, then arctic strat goes the other way
  4. @mountain shadow you would thing that anomaly is a dream for us in Slovakia being under dark blue anomalies, yet December ended about 1C above average, January about average and February will be above average as well. The high ground did well but altitudes below 300m asl has a mediocre winter overall with with pattern - snowfall,thaw,snowfall,thaw,snowfall,thaw, early spring soon. Had good mid December and mid January spells with about 10cm max snow depth. Thanks god not high pressure with fog, instead plenty below -10C mornings and very sunny days, that were the highlights of the winter. For the European standards looking at that anomaly we finished pretty well, could have been much milder and snow free if we were a bit more west.
  5. with that low pressure in the Atlantic this chart is more October like, one wonders when will the energy in the Atlantic slow down
  6. Incredibly boring period of weather throughout Europe this week. It certainly wasn't the case exactly 90 years ago and 20 years ago as these days mark the anniversaries of 1. coldest temperature measured in modern times 11.02.1929, -41.0C and also 11.02.1999 one of the worst Blizzards that hit my region in Slovakia.
  7. The most frustrating chart of winter in my eyes goes to GFS. Core of vortex trying to establish on the right side of hemishere, everything looks primed for amplification, yet we have 3! low pressure systems churning away in Atlantic ready to kill any hopes of height raises to the north/northwest. Someone please give me an answer why is the atmosphere cursed with this pattern with some many winters in a row now
  8. GFS 6Z confirming a notion of this mornings ECMWF run. Can we scrape something extra out of this winter? For my location in Slovakia which looks like it might be benefiting quite promptly out of this extra amplification, the 0Z ECMWF was joined by small cluster of ensemble members, going further towards 15 day range there is lets call them sympathetic amount of clusters going for even colder solution, but mean only drops little below 0C. There is still hope, but we need to grab the momentum now.
  9. I agree very much so and would like to see consecutive winters with -PDO and also with a reasonable Atlantic tripole signature. Then see what NAO response it does create in winter
  10. Maybe this is not strictly model related, but I have started to wonder why are some of the experts here so hung up on looking for EL Nino atmospheric response to bring us blocked winter. Have a look at a comparison between MEI years and NAO. A lot more negative NAO in La Nina years rather then EL Nino. in 50s and 60s there were plenty of deep -NAO winters and Strong La Nina. If we look at early 90s dross it correlates with mainly EL Nino. I know where are lot more variables in play,just a thought.
  11. Interestingly the SST this week have moved in direction towards anomaly that resembles Atlantic Tripole a bit more, this along with a possible MJO phase 8 could contribute to -NAO towards the end of Feb. we will see
  12. @Nick F a very good level headed post. A lot of followers of Netweather also follow some American sites in which there are too many enthusiasts that forecast winter as far back as in July/August. They use teleconnections to every single detail/historical reanalysis etc. Now talking strictly about MJO and wave driven atmospheric response it is always going to effect north American circulation first through pacific amplification(EPO,PNA), the north Atlantic sector is last to be effected, now add the fact that area around Southern Greenland and Iceland is probably to most difficult to forecast anyway then seasonals and even 7+ day forecasts have to be treated with a huge risk factor. Now if we focus strictly on the dreaded NAO region, it likes to come around in clusters of negative and positive. - 60s hugely negative, also 2009 -2013. with the positives unfortunately lasting a lot longer recently 1988-1995. 2013-2019 and counting. Wouldn't mind instead of SSW next year seeing -PDO and Altantic tripole and see what happens. It has not only been a painful cluster of winters for UK perspective(discarding BFTE) but generally for Continental Europe, with January 2017 being exception since 2013. The cold air has been aligned to effect North East of Canada and Eastern Asia predominantly and we are faced with a cut of mid Atlantic low that advects EuroHigh - (this also in spring,summer,autumn) or short term cooler spells where jet stream travels on NW -SE axis, this is only polar maritime air and is quickly mixed out. what we need is the main area of vortex to be present in EuroAsian sector not around Hudson bay a la Dec 2010. I hope we soon break this NAO drought or if not I hope someone meantime finds a genuine reason why we in Europe have been depleted of proper sustained winter weather.
  13. The Atmosphere is not behaving like EL Nino this winter. So much talk of Modoki back in October over in US rampers camp. With this enhanced subtropical ridging with both Azores high and Euro high to conclude most of the February we can say it has more of a LA Nina footprint then EL Nino. This even before we start talking about downwelling of negative zonal winds, it looks like it barely reached troposphere.A huge contrast against Baldwin Dunkerton. This winter turns out as a great example not to underestimate the stochastic nature of atmosphere.
  14. Yes @Catacol this season has been a great learning curve with the interaction between tropics,subtropics and polar, troposphere and stratosphere. As the season ends and emotions are watered down it is great to use this perspective on weather once we get to the next one lets say in November and start to analyse various seasonal models. I hope we once get the reversed outcome where all teleconnections and seasonals point to mild and zonal but they will bust and cold winter materializes. It is unfair, that in happens the opposite way when one variable fails and blocking collapses. I do wonder what was so different in atmosphere in 60s for example that the whole Europe had most winters frigid under quasi permanent -NAO.
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