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jules216

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    Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences
    continental climate

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  1. Watching this December unfold has a dejavu feeling ever since 2013/14. You can almost set you clock for a colder spell of weather at the turn of the months which promises a lot going forward. The heights in NAO corridor always overplayed whatever model you look at in hours 168+ also the extent of Euro throughing which at the end mostly stays in Scandinavia and just brushes Baltics and Central Europe then gets quickly shuffled away by another deepening through west of Ireland which on the other hand at 168+ range is very much underplayed by models. Worst case scenario happening every single December. When was the last time most of Europe got cold between 10 and 25.12? As winter months come NAO goes positive, all the positive teleconnections dont really matter - vortex displaced to Scandi/Euroasia + Solar min. But the negative ones - slow descending QBO,Indian Ocean dipole,lack of tropical forcing,low GLAAM are almost sure to stamp their authority on atmosphere. It beggars belief that these variables were not present in 60ties where -NAO was quasi permanent. How come that "good" teleconnections outweight "bad" ones with ease, but now 1 bad one outweighs all good ones - last winter being an example, where it was apparently the shift of QBO from negative to positive that hindered SSW downwelling, or Nina like destructive forcing etc etc. So now Nina forcing is bad? How come we had great winters in past in La Nina then? Too many questions and confusing signals lead to one answer - zonal/mild. Another salt in wounds are all the cold rampers who come out every winter and try to convince public how bad are the mild and seasonal models and how teleconnections favor cold - a lot of them are in east USA and somehow their twitter activity filters through to general followers elsewhere.
  2. First snowfall of the season arrived yesterday, it gave us a coating of 5cm. Our part of Europe is finally under some seasonal temperatures, long range suggests favorable conditions more to the west of Europe then here, through doesn´t look like traveling enough eastwards to lock us under deeper cold, better for UK,Scandi and western Europe. As I type outside temperature is -6.5C, not bad for a midday.
  3. Cold weather finally arrived here in Slovakia,barely above freezing with clear skies under northerly winds,overnight EPS have cooled against 12Z,mean now down to almost -5 T850 for middle of December here,suggests no Euro high to me
  4. Yes @Nick F, I am liking the trend on this morning EPS, for my location(Slovakia) the max. T2M mean is hovering around 0C in latter frames days 12-15, mild clusters in minority, this to me suggests a progressively meridional pattern in Europe with some sort of through diving at lest to some other parts of Europe then Scandinavia, so no usual zonal pattern hopefully.
  5. I have seen worse suites in decembers recently for sure,the Tatra mountains shadow for my location is ridiculous,plenty members with crazy synoptic yet so little percipitation, the Isle of Man shadow is nothing compares to Tatras, locations in north west Slovakia would be burried under 4foot snow while I would have 5cm
  6. some output tonight is nearly beyond belief for us in central EU, first proper snow threat on Monday - 10cm plus and then vortex visit if you were to believe some of the ensemble members. A redemption for endless warmth? I still remain skeptical about so much amplification
  7. @Glacier Point, nice to hear your thoughts, would something like this from latest CFS weeks 3 and 4 reflect your thoughts well, re. blocking to north, north/east?
  8. I dont want any more southerly advection like Icon,had enough of that,barely a frost this autumn which is crazy
  9. @northwestsnow it looks lot more seasonal finally, if I have to cherry pick a frame from 12Z then this would be nice. Looks like 30.11 to hopefully at least 5.12 will be a window for a cold snap
  10. this morning EPS are trending milder for my location in Slovakia, mean bottoms out at -4.4C T850 in the 4th December, few days later is back up to around 0C T850. This to me suggests more of a toppler scenario then sustained blocking, for now it appears we will descend in to normal December conditions for about a week and then perhaps scenario where Azores high topples in to continent with westerly winds.
  11. @carinthian well we might be finally joining the party in central Europe, about time, but the timing would be impeccable
  12. sorry didnt mean to quote this, i wanted to write a separate post but this stayed on my submit reply area,dont know why
  13. this west based NAO I hate,Europe still basking in warm anomalies,when will this misery end,UK/IE making the most of limited below average animalies it seems acording to EPS and GEFS, skiing season here in central Europe looks like starting very late,what can go wrong goes wrong from the promising blocking patterns,hope everything shifts about 1000km eastwards
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