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    Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
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    continental climate

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  1. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is predominantly a feature of the lower and middle troposphere and is not present in the stratosphere. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is linked to low signal amplitude of the forecast systems in early winter. Future studies attempting to examine the signal‐to‐noise ratio should focus on the extent to which this early winter variability is predictable
  2. I read that there is a very low signal to noise ratio in seasonal models like ECMWF,I ve seen it on Amy Butlers twitter, this may mean it is very premature to take September update seriously
  3. That is the most depressing seasonal anomally imaginable. Lets see where are we next month
  4. my presumption was partially incorrect as SSW will influence MJO,but not hurricane activity which is driven by recent CCKW and easterly african wave
  5. I see a trend where deterministic output is way out of sync with its own ensembles for few days now in medium term(GFS), almost like 10C difference against ensemble mean for my location at day 7!. I believe it may be down to atmosphere - MJO waking up and reacting to SSW in Southern Hemisphere which is being forecast now to emerge in phase 6 with reasonable amplitude. This MJO wave may help to wake up hurricane activity in Atlantic again and that could have downstram effect on amplifying the pattern upstream,but the energy is yet to be resolved weather it will lead to more eastward energy and flatting out Azores High or amplifying it even more
  6. Antartic Polar Vortex is more stable enviroment then Arctic which is influenced by warm waters from Gulf Stream that travel poleward and more suspect to Rossby wave braking situations that can induce warm air in to polar stratosphere, while thats not the case in circulation around south pole.
  7. Actually I did an analysis on the snowiest winters i remember here - 1995/96,2002/03,2005/06,2012/13, and as you can see the holy grail for us is that gulf of Genoa low with High Pressure centre between Norway and Iceland,under these synoptics all the snow would come up from southerly direction to us
  8. Not as much as you would think, we have unique orography in some regions so you get a lot of snow shadows depending on which direction its coming from, I live just south of High and Low Tatras so for example I get my best snow from southerly as there are no mountains/snow shadows in Hungary as its flat,so we need this synoptics like Gulf of Genoa low that travels eastwards towards black sea, otherwise northerly and north westerly is a killer as I have largest mountains in central Europe - Tatras in the way, so villages north of me get 60cm and I get 2cm, really frustrating. But a southerly or south westerly with imbeded surface cold is great as the temperatures are around 0C to -1C and huge snowflakes with 10-25cm almost guaranteed. I remember very little snow from a northerly with -15C uppers, the air is just too dry. When you in UK have high pressure and we get northerly plunge from Scandi lows its 100% sunny and very frosty. We also need frontal battleground for nationwide dumping, otherwise these mountain ranges create their borders themselves, almost like mini Alps, which are sunniest in south but wery snowy in north
  9. Yes, winters in early naughties were great here in Slovakia, actually 2005-06 was marginally colder then 2010-11 because of spectacular Jan-Feb 06. But 2002/03 was more then 1C below 1901-2000 average. Only noteworthy winter after was 2016/17 because Jan 17 was coldest in 30 years here.
  10. Yes but also the biggest picture is, not related to UK only,that the last 2 winters below 1961-1990 average here in central Europe were 2002-03 and 2010-11. maybe coincidents, but still interesting, some of those months for UK perspective it missed the continental cold by very little, still better then zonal composites of likes 2013/14
  11. Impact or no impact but I would certainly take the outcome on NH winter following in from previous SSW in S.Hemisphere(2002,2010)
  12. Browsing through GEFS suite indicates very blocked Atlantic and some nice NH profiles if it was to continue,perhaps a knock on effect from slow start to polar vortex season as suggested by A.Butler?
  13. CanSIPS Model has finally updated their seasonal outlook, it still goes with its last update from August. Plenty of Arctic blocking present, though also a lot of high pressure around North/Western Russia, so no real long fetch easterly signal there. T2M temperatures marginally below average for Western Europe with main through just to the east of UK.
  14. Hi Carinthian, I have seen some snow pixels being indicated around the 16th September for levels around 1000m in our Tatra Mountains. ECMWF confirms this in mornings 0Z, also weeklies from 16-22.09 have us 3-5C colder then average. It will be a very early start to mountain snow season this year then, interestingly the trends from last 10 years have been that snow is visiting us very early.
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