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jules216

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    Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
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    continental climate

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  1. Good things come to those who ask for them. ECMWF 10hPa temperatures now available free in extended forecast section
  2. It does no harm - 1976/77 or 1981/82 both early warmings
  3. A lesson learned from past winters, always look to the East as much as North West, if you see SE Europe high joining across with NE Scandi and NE Russia then good luck sourcing cold pool. The worst case scenario is cool windy north westerly so the heating bills are huge but no snow with it. i am located in Slovakia and when I see people posting NAO charts like crazy but dont look East I get quite angry,like they never learn.
  4. Some publications on Solar QBO relationship, good correlation with -QBO and solar flux below 80.
  5. Yes, background signals are in line with observed publications from Grey et al. and others.
  6. I dont necesary agree blocked weather regime is all that good sign or indicator of good pattern going forward, block can easily mean Euro High pressure and endless mind weather
  7. The ensemble mean color shading are so misleading I mean the orange is like 1hPa higher then mean,hardly screams fat blocking high with would equal like 20hPa Higher then mean, throw in the spread and it doesnt mean "lemon"
  8. Three out of last 4 nights Ive had below freezing where I am measuring in Slovakia, a trully unique place in context of cold nights. Cant wait for winter minimas. Last mediocre winter still produced -26.9C.
  9. How about coldest spring since 1997 here in central Europe.Did ECMWF or UKMO pick it up? No,all it needes was record long MJO phase 7 in April to cement meridional flow in Europe. Iam not pesimistic of early wintry spells, dont forget we have slight -IOD in autumn peaking in Oct/Nov,that correlates with precipitiation around Indonesia and Australia(MJO 4-7) Models wont see the MJO activity well now,as they didnt see it back in late Feb for April cold. I am more focused on early cold this year not the post SSW two week spell in February.
  10. Il take that EC seasonal,chance of Scandi troughing. Seasonals lately tend to underestimate the southerly extent of cold pooling,just think of spring 2021. One good MJO timing and flow can easily become N-S axis.
  11. The Holton–Tan effect varies over longitude. The QBO induces stronger planetary wave forcing to the mean flow in the extratropical lower stratosphere between Indonesia and Alaska. The North Pacific polar stratosphere responds to this before other longitudes. What follows is a shift in the position of the polar vortex toward Eurasia (North America) during easterly (westerly) QBO. This initiates downstream planetary wave responses over North America, the North Atlantic, and Siberia.
  12. It should be negative, i hope most negative since 2016, more negative the more convection in MJO phases 4-7 that bring that La Nina like mid Atlantic ridge late autumn/early winter with a bit of a chance of -NAO if corelate with low solar flux<90.
  13. It was the anomalous +IOD that killed the winter 2019/20 not SSW in southern hemisferic winter. +IOD send the tropical forcing to the wrong place and it did feedback to a strong Euro high, the reverse is true of -IOD that sets up tropical forcing in phases 4-7(Indonesia/Pacific) that teleconnects with more blocking in the North Atlantic
  14. Thanks, my summer analogs were quite different years to this winter analogs funnily enough, I did use a lot of years which had cold May in Slovakia which went well. I know exactly one thing this year,that if cold early doesnt come it wont be because of strong zonality, but by a legacy high pressure in NE or E Europe as it has been an eternity since we got lucky there with a trigger shortwave that can lock us all in cold akin to likes of February 2012. Every early cold last decade if came early came from a -NAO and that can still be a achieved but with bad configuration to the east of Europe.
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