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About jules216

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    Hollywood, Co Wicklow, 195m, West Wicklow frost hollow
  • Weather Preferences
    continental climate

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  1. ECMWF ensembles seem to agree that we are going to phase 7 MJO, which give a reasonable representation as to where we are heading at the start of November, courtesy of this morning GFS, a weakish block north/west of Ireland and a tendency of Scandi/Central Eestern European through,after that the MJO singal weak, probably heading to circle of death?
  2. was just about to post the latest ensembles run, wonder are they picking up on the MJO signal which might be a little more active and reach phase 7 and 8 soon.
  3. The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    I wholeheartedly agree about December snow, you can't beat the sensation where the landscape changes overnight from grey dull to pure white. Having been lucky enough to grow up in a reasonably snowy country(Slovakia), December was always enjoyable, as we also have the St.Nicolaus day on 6th of December,where we as children got sweats and treats also the Christmas markets are around all month with all those Mulled Wine continental flavours. Nothing beats December snow, I generally loose interest by the end of January these days. Now going way off topic.
  4. The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    I am also worried about the highly zonal pattern, since mid.July approx. and the highly frequent re-appearance of Euro High which can persisit for months, I am wondering all those above average SST in medit. and the stored heat in Spain or Portugal might be causing inflated Azores high and SST config. in North Atlantic contribute to creating shortvawes south of Greenland, my analogues also suggest 2 cold winters and 2 mild ones with 1 average (1954,1970,1984,1996,2007)
  5. Or is it ECMWF over amplifying things as usual, someone please nuke that Euro high, I have seen it ruin our summers and winters for so many times now, it is up there with stalling atlantic lows to the west of Ireland, my father use to say, that is ony rains where stupid live, because smart ancestors of ours would have relocated long time ago, maybe he is right as this permanent autumn is getting to me now, we didnt have a proper season here in Ireland since July 2014 or December 2010!
  6. we seem to be doing very well at the moment
  7. The correlation between QBO and Solar cycles(Solar Flux) has been documented by Labitzke et.al. before and they found that 10 out of 15 winters in -QBO had at least 1 MMW, also even more MMV in +QBO and Solar Max. see interesting table which also includes ENSO state
  8. for what its worth here my alanogue compsites(weak La Nina,declining Solar,-QBO descending,weak neg.PDO)
  9. It is hard to guess what will this winter bring, some of the analogues I am going with are: 1954/55,1970/71,1984/85,1995/96,2007/08, some of them had early cold, some late, but not a clear signal, a bit of a mess really, variable NAO and AO, only trend I see, is for higher hights to west of Russia,Siberia and lower pressure around western Med. perhaps a displaced Azores High towards north,not reaching enought to create a persistet -NAO, jet could be a more NW-SE axis, and more NW shots this time around. anyone has some other analogues?
  10. Thanks for links, I am looking for specifically something like this
  11. ideally charts that compare against previous years,thanks
  12. Guys, where I can find weekly charts of SAI and SCE growth/change, can you post a link please?
  13. Autumn thoughts

    September in Europe,temps.wise,wouldn't we all love this to persist for another 6 months,ha
  14. zonal wind anomalies may be running below average for the month of october,maybe weak polar vortex early? actually quite curious to see if northern hemisphere look will show perturbed vortex mid. October onwards
  15. Autumn thoughts

    Ive noticed the trees changing colors much faster here in Ireland this Autumn then back at home in Slovakia