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jules216

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Hollywood, Co Wicklow, 195m, West Wicklow frost hollow
  • Weather Preferences
    continental climate

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  1. I have a question, or a request for help from our stratospheric experts, I would like to read the full version of Baldwin/Dunkerton study about stratospheric/troposferic coupling etc. Is there a free version online? The one I found online was just an abstract,thanks in advance
  2. The beast from the East was fun, why not have a repeat, Baldwin/Dunkerton study would agree also stratosphere is undergoing final warming soon, zonal winds back in easterly again, bye bye Atlantic, welcome back Arctic
  3. I have never seen so much snow in my life like today,I was trying to reach my friend who lives in Manor Kilbride on Sally gap road(Wicklow Mountains) to give him a lift to the shops as he spent last 4 days in his house not knowing that he is completely snowed in and there is no access to the village as the main road has 7ft drifts, the digger only managed to clear only about a third of the road necessary to reach main street,mountain rescue was leaving after helping elderly woman out and I had to park my van at the end of the cleared part and continue walking on top of a drift for a while,before I got to his estate,then I was sinking knee deep while walking about 500 meters towards his house, that was probably the mean snow depth,some experience, then a senior mountain rescue member confirmed that this is worse than 1982 event up there!
  4. Lovely record breaking morning from West Wicklow, we have got an inch or two on the ground
  5. According to my estimations most of 23cms(9inches) fell roughly between 11PM and 5:30AM, trip to work took only 15 minutes more then usual which is bizarre, a truly epic 3-4 days ahead in Wicklow hills that can possibly rival most of the records from 20th century as regards to snowfall totals, it is just unreal, I hope you guys get your fair share of snow later too
  6. Dear Netweather colleagues, After continuous snowfall since 11PM I can now confirm 19cm- 7 inches of level snow cover in Hollywood,co.Wicklow
  7. Best covering since 2010 here in Hollywood,co. Wicklow,
  8. that is incredibly cold week for my area next week, ECMWF main run closely matching the ensembles, from Monday until Saturday the 850hPa never makes it above -8 degrees! That beats 2010 December in my view
  9. Liking the trend of the EC ops. for more -NAO amplitude of below -4, now that screams omega block to me, lets hope it stays firm as we know NAO can go awol, courtesy of some mysterious xxx solar flare out of nowhere knowing our luck
  10. Evening all, best 12z runs since I follow numerical outputs from cca 2009. I have gone through 12z ECMWF and zoomed in on my location in Wicklow hills, the coldest 850 temps that I found were -14! now we are talking continental cold that I am used from back home in Slovakia as a kid. all I say is bring it on
  11. on 18z ICON, you can clearly see the importance of Gulf of Genoa low that will prevent High from sinking a classic trigger to some cold spells from past,lets hope she is there tomorrow
  12. Then perhaps we could benefit from more -PDO then +PDO as that is linked North Pacific and Alaskan high, and -EPO,no? I have also overlooked not while ago somewhere,that apparently the azores high is stronger in recent years and that might contribute to the steep temperature gradient in the north atlantic and fueling up the jet stream subsequently, there are far too many teleconnections involved but somehow they all managed to yield +NAO for so long now, actually between late 80s and early 90s we managed 8 winters with +NAO overall, I am not sure if all individual months were +NAO as between Dec14 and Feb18
  13. What will happen is that we finally conquer -NAO some time around 20.03 to bring us dull chilly spring and will watch easterlies next weeks stop in Eastern England as in 2012, this winter has yet again proven very frustrating with very short cold snaps here on the east coast, no -NAO month since March 2013 which is what we need here for lying snow, at least NI had their fair share of snow as usual
  14. This is precisely what I was eluding to in my previous post today,the +NAO has been omnipresent for past 5 winters now despite some favourable background signals and I believe as nice as some re- analysis look,we can not explain the persistent nature of +NAO then all the teleconections have to be taken with a dose of scepticism, we have been burned out a lot with eye candy collapse at last minute,some put it down to solar influences,but I suspect the SST in Atlantic are key with the lack of Atlantic tripole signature,scupering shorwaves poping up etc.,there has been very little discussion about it in mods,but a lot about enso,strat,mjo,but for us surrounding SST and AMO must hold a key importance
  15. I am very sceptical about achieving HLB within the month of February if we go by the trend of recent years,especially -NAO, the pattern of recent years is a flip to negative around March/April which is frustrating. Despite having so many favourable teleconections like low solar activity, -QBO, not too strong La Nina, we haven't had -NAO month in winter since March 2013! Even if we analyze the recent MJO passage through phase 7 which was at very strong amplitude against the NCEP historical reanalysis which showed good support of HLB around Scandi, it didn't materialise and if you look at the 500mb height anomaly comparison the biggest difference is NAO location around Greenland, with persistent vortex located there in winters since March 2013, I do not know what the reason for this persistent pattern is for 5 winters in a row! despite some eye candy FI charts in recent winters that buckled before we got to 120hrs forecast On the attached pictures you can clearly see some height similarities but the biggest culprit is NAO! There is a very unpleasant trend happening clearly with NAO and I am very suspicious about buckling the trend this winter, until well into March
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