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  1. One interesting note. The geop. height anomaly pattern indicated by recent numerical outputs resembles more precursor to split events rather then displacement. See Mitchell et al. 2013 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1 I think we may see a split event come beginning of January if numerical models prove to be close to reality
  2. too good not to share this with you, EPS had upped the ante with blocking retrogression signal from Scandi in to GIN corridor. around christmas period
  3. jules216

    Winter 2018/19

    @AderynCoch wasn't aware that I am not the only Slovakian on netweather, my wife sent me picture this morning from the other side of the country.
  4. @Catacol maybe we can say that it is high risk high reward situation? If warming is strong enough and we get SSW then vortex is dead and it doesnt matter that it relocated towards Greenland. But if vortex proves more durable we may get a -EPO pattern with cold eastern USA and not sufficient undercut which will then advect more euro high situation as residual vortex around Greenland will not allow retrograding pattern and instead of highs around GIN corridor we end up with Sceuro high?
  5. Am I looking at things too simplistic with trying to understand the gist of stratospheric-tropospheric interaction? In next few days we are going to have Scandinavian blocking trying to establish itself. Around the same time a pulse of warming at 10hPa around Alaska is pushing the stratospheric polar vortex towards the same region where we have tropospheric heights- Scandi/western Russia(picture.1). Subsequently we loose the blocking over Scandinavia. Then in around 2 weeks time we see another pulse of stratospheric warming around eastern Siberia moving the core of polar vortex at 10hPa to Greenland/Iceland area(picture.2). In the same time we see on the hemispheric view of 500mb height anomalies that the core of tropospheric polar vortex is moving in the same direction - towards Greenland(picture.3) Am I making a false assumption of atmosphere in thinking that these stratospheric warmings are doing us no favors at all on short to medium term? There might be a pot of gold towards February and March, but how about the month where winter really matters for most of us - a week before and around Christmas. Most of posters on here are excited when they see these stratospheric warmings appear, but are they not having the opposite effect at least in the context of December?
  6. EPS anomaly this morning at later stages looks much better then last few updates - higher pressure anomaly now indicated around GIN corridor just before Christmas, trending neutral anomalies ranging from western Russia as far west as eastern Germany, lets say trend is your friend Cant post picture or I will get in trouble with @bluearmy
  7. looking at the EPS ensemble mean 500mb it is quite comical how persistent is the anomaly for low pressure south west of Ireland, it is basically unmovable between 13 and 21 st December, yet everywhere else on the hemisphere pressure anomalies tend to shuffle a bit, I have been hearing on this thread from teleconnective experts saying how important it is that the EL Nino pattern establishes. Yet during La Nina in December at least the azores high is more enhanced and some times gives us more north westerlies or northerlies, but this quasi stationary lows behind more meridional pattern only end up propping the Euro high by time and west based NAO, if you look at teleconnection charts it may show -AO or -NAO, but it is not going to bring much of a cold if we do not get rid of this cut of low. One thing that is probably not doing us any favors and is consistently overlooked are unfavorable SST and lack of tripole in north atlantic. Even UKMO in their 16-31 day forecast were advocating settled spell mid December and it is looking that they got this horribly wrong. Although they mentioned this will gradually change to unsettled and breezier conditions, where is this settled spell? A ratio of 1 settled day and 6 unsettled! If you remember @Tamara mentioned this in her earlier post that this is one of the realistic options going forward with west based -NAO under EL Nino conditions
  8. I have seen the ECMWF 46 days forecast and although there is blocking present it is not overly cold pattern as the through sits just east of UK. We will be pumping mild air in to central EU and availability of really frigid winds would be limited, you need a more elongated low anomaly that spreads as far east as baltics or western russia which is not there on EC46d as there is higher pressure anomaly there. to me it screams more west based NAO. I know it is only ensemble mean and no point of arguing about detailed positioning now
  9. If we isolate MJO and pretend we trust the GEFS progression of it. Then a period of +NAO would fit OK with last week before and around Christmas. We then hopefully see a coherent passage through phases 6 and 7 between Christmas and New Year which then correlate with -NAO. How nice if the advection of blocking happens in the same time as SSW.
  10. It would be intriguing to follow the tendency of this blocking anomaly which has a reasonable chance to advect somewhere in the Arctic. Interestingly some of the similar strat warmings with vortex displacement events towards Scandinavia occured in around early 2004 and 2006. Subsequent height anomalies for JAN-FEB period had an east based -NAO. It wouldn´t make much sence to me to achieve west based -NAO after such a strong Scandi high anomaly before we get a shot at east based -NAO. But with sometimes stochastic nature of atmosphere stranger things happened
  11. EPS musing: - AO and NAO going negative again, AO from 15.12.18 and NAO from 12..12.18, median aprrox -1SD - According to 500mb height anomaly in last frames - west based -NAO and UK/IE through - Western Scandi, UK and IE under those synoptics coldest anomalies in Europe, but not a huge negative anomaly - Positives are that both AO and NAO have flipped negative in the same time frame as 46 day output was showing positive over all the previous updates. Once again hats of to @Glacier Point who is quite accurate in predicting circulation trends way before models show them.
  12. Cohen in his latest update is comparing this potential vortex displacement to the one in January 2006.
  13. DEC/JAN 500mb geop. height anomalies for years with stratospheric displacement events at the very end of Nov or Dec
  14. Give me February 1999 anytime @Interitus
  15. Yes that is the case, but I had a look at EPS up to 360hrs and there is a marked switch from euro low to euro high, I was following EPS every day and up until yesterday it was showing euro through form about 7th to 18th december. now euro through anomaly is there only as a transient feature for a duration of 2 to 3 days. not sure it will verifiy thgough