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  1. Not sure if this belongs here, but why is Arctic warming so much more then Antarctina, what would be the scientific explanation to that, or any link to a research document?
  2. jules216

    Winter 2018/19

    What causes all those blue anomalies in Antarctica, lower then average MSLP in that region= stronger antarctic vortex comapred to mean? It looks odd to have such a widespread anomaly
  3. on one of the images you attached - the vertical and zonal integral of relative AAM tendency, the bottom one global tend shows positive values, it means that we have +AAM tendency? Is it in tropics or everywhere? Wouldn't it be better to differentiate between tropical AAM and subtropical AAM? It could lead me to believe that +AAM in subtropics just enhancez western zonality
  4. Hi Catacol, maybe I understood the GSDM synoptics poorly, but isn't the +GLAAM an indicator that the atmosphere is moving faster then earth spinning,which basically means that the westerlies at mid latitudes are also stronger? I thought that with EAMT event there is a switch from +AAM to -AAM in higher latitudes, thus westerlies weaken and we have more chance of blocking? Also on your first picture above, what do the yellow,red and green color contours equate to between 30 and 60N? Thanks. still learning
  5. More from ECMWF seasonal update, anyone ordered Scandi high?
  6. thanks sebastiaan, if we take the encouraging bits from month to month basis, then the below average precipitation between Iceland,Scotland and West of Norway is good. blocking around first half of winter, then as the QBO turns more positive we have zonal February, so a front loaded winter perhaps suggested?
  7. jules216

    Winter 2018/19

    jvenge, I would take winter 2002/03 ahead of 2009/10 if I was in central Europe, that was the last winter classified as below average, >-1 against 1901-2000! since that winter none has achieved a below average threshold, so waiting continues.
  8. I would like to see the blocking high completely flatten and the pattern re-set, that is a very poorly placed subtropical high for any wave braking or retrogression to high lats, there is no way those atlantic lows will undercut and it is preventing the siberian snow advancement to gain any westerly momentum, if this pattern exists at the end of november then id get nervous
  9. There is an Eastern Asian mountain torque event happening right now which will flip the pattern in north america that has persisted most of the summer and early autumn courtesy of pacific jet extension and a split jet at eastern side of north america. This may have subsequent effect on the Atlantic jet, unfortunately I am not skilled enough yet to predict what effect these EAMT events have on the long range circulation in our vicinity, for this I desperately need insight from likes of Tamara,GP,Lorenzo or Chionomaniac to explain it in layman terms, unfortunately non of them has posted for long time which is a pity.
  10. Yes I know,not possible to take only 1 teleconnection in isolation,there might not be many matching analogues if we get in to details
  11. I used this table that I found here last season
  12. Really? I did some re-analysis myself, but had 2009/10 as a moderate el nino,which probably contributed to much more pronounced colder anomalies, I have tried to use years which had low solar activity,although I didn't differentiate between beginning or the end of solar minimum years, it clearly shows that as a winter the anomalies were much colder in those moderate ones with low solar,then weak ones, mind you 4 winters are quite a poor statistically significant evidence.
  13. Can I ask a question? As far as I understand weak or moderate el nino is good to promote MJO convection signature, why is super nino or strong el nino not even better then? ocean temperatures are even warmer so should the MJO not be even more pronounced and easier to enter phases 7,8 or 1 which are conductive to blocking at high lats. I did understand the mechanisms behind strong la nina that it kills the convection because of stronger easterlies in tropics, but I wonder what mechanisms work in super ninos that are causing these zonal winters like 1982/83,1997/87,2015/16
  14. For us in Europe moderate EL Nino is much better then a weak affair if we want cold winter,for example 1963/64,2009/10 against 2004/05 or 2006/07.
  15. This anomaly by CFS from most recent output would certainly confirm the theory discussed in this topic, shortly we will find out what October brings.