Captain Shortwave

There does seem to be scope for a warm up again later this coming week (talk mid-twenties this time though). Most models bring up a warm sector before fronts clear through for the weekend. However the UKMO is worth noting because this is the idea the ECM was toying with. Brief warmer flow and potentially an active weather system pushing up from the south/south west.

Another rumble of thunder heard to the south of here, there appear to be a few new cells developing over East Anglia now.

Looks like there was a 33c recorded at Mildenhall, so will need to see if somewhere like Santon Downham has managed to get close to the maximum temperature recorded yesterday.

The skies have been pretty clear over this area all day (well until the thunderstorm arrived) and temperatures just to the east of here have reached 32c. The problem was model wise that most thought that there wouldn’t be a trigger to initiate convection. Looking at the models there is a shallow low that was crossing central/southern England this afternoon. That appears to have been the ingredient to create forcing and break the cap down here.

Not much lightning but pretty much continuous thunder. We got lucky here as it has hit nearby areas much harder. solid effort for September.

Looks like the gap is filling in, torrential rain and some lightning overhead.

50/50 for direct hit or lucky escape.

Fingers crossed on the MK storm. It is starting to look very dark the the south west of Peterborough now.

Not much time left, cloud is gathering to the south west now. I think anywhere east of Cambridge will be okay.

Heh, the large mass of cloud has sort of just melted away upon arrival. We remain sunny though it appears Wittering has stopped reporting so no idea what the temperature is (Mildenhall appear to be the closest and is at 30c at midday).

Into the high twenties but there is already thicker mid to high level cloud moving in. Hopefully this isn’t going to cap temperatures and limit thunderstorm development.

Not a lot of confidence for next weekend, in particular in regards to whether we see a defined trough develop near the UK or whether the pattern remains flat and mostly westerly. The ECM again throws up a mix of warmth and a lot of rain whilst the others tend to keep conditions mixed with temperatures near normal. As for today, the models are tending the spread the thunderstorm risk a little further south east, a large amount of uncertainty regarding maximum temperatures today, but it should reach 32c somewhere across the northern half of East Anglia before cloud and potential thunderstorms arrive. But again the potential for highest temperature this year to be challenged if conditions remain sunny for longer.

Seems to be a case of watching developments to our south/south west today. ECM showing very high temperatures for early afternoon, but also showers arriving (Especially for western parts of the region).

Reached 32c this afternoon, making it the hottest day of the year in my location. Tomorrow looking a little frustrating, we could reach 32c by early afternoon but cloud looks likely to bubble up, yet it seems like the shower risk is pretty low still with the action further north and west. In the end it could end up being the worst of both worlds by not getting what could be some severe storms but also miss out on another sunny day.

Saffron Walden was full of people dining al fresco outside when we were there during the morning/early afternoon. Seems like perfect conditions for it due to it being sunny and calm. The temperature reached 32c in the end here, the hottest day of the year.

Uncertainty regarding how hot tomorrow will be. Arome hits 31c, perhaps 32c but the hottest areas get hit by a large thunderstorm during the middle of the afternoon. Other storms further west too. The arpege also brings cloud into the areas most likely to see the highest temperatures, eastern parts of East Anglia look fine and sunny, but with a slight onshore breeze from the south east. I guess at the end of the day the potential for 33/34c is there, but obviously dependent on sunshine amounts.

Made it to 30c but there is cloud bubbling up north of Cambridge at the moment. Not sure how high temperatures will get here and of course whether any showers develop.

My vote is very much in the “none of the above” category. We have seen 850s reach over 20c across the south east, a similar set up in July would not have seen the highest 850s mix out like they have to a degree here. We would have been talking beyond August 2003 levels in terms of potential maximum heat and longevity. I don’t think even the hardiest heat lovers would have coped too well with temperatures pushing close to 100F for several days and again threatening the 40c mark. In short given the levels of heat in the south I think we more dodged a bullet and having several days in the high 20s/low 30s is perfectly acceptable, even if it is a bit late in the day.

Both the GFS and ECM develop an area of low pressure towards the Bay of Biscay and pull this north east next Saturday. Obviously this is just worth watching at the moment but if it does develop then there is the risk of a lot of rain and potential embedded thunderstorms given the warm airmass that gets dragged up ahead of it. After this the ECM builds high pressure back in again, not really supported though. Today and tomorrow look similar to previous output, hot and mostly sunny today, a potential large outbreak of thunderstorms away from East Anglia and the south east tomorrow (the referenced areas look mostly fine and hot again).

A low of 18c, a much warmer night but it starts off clear. We are still looking good to push for the highest temperature during this spell. So far Wittering (nearest station to Peterborough) has recorded 28c, 27c, 27c, 30c and 29c since Monday. Not bad for September.

A good chance that we could see similar tomorrow and Sunday, in fact we could walk away from this spell with the highest temperature this year. A bit of breeze would be nice though, unfortunately we are not likely to get that away from the coasts.

ECM reaches 33c on Saturday and potentially 34c on Sunday ((Raw 30 and 31c respectively). The ECM clobbers the same area of the UK two days in a row with showers developing from SW England through the Midlands into Northern England on Sunday and Monday. The showers on Monday eventually merge into longer spells of rain that move south east on Tuesday. Monday could easily end up very warm again towards the south east. Looking at end of week 1, the ECM again wants to dig an area of low pressure southwards and developing a cyclonic southerly airflow. Not much support from the other models, or indeed ensembles, which keep things flatter. Fair to say the ECM operational would probably offer a lot of warmth, humidity and rain.

Bit of a head scratcher, most forecasts suggest the hottest day will be tomorrow at around 33c. Yet most models want Sunday to be a degree hotter than Saturday. ECM another example Another when corrected going for around 34c on Sunday. I know there is uncertainty regarding the risk of thunderstorms but again most models are placing the risk from the midlands and north and west of here.

The high cloud has thickened up this evening which is preventing temperatures from falling away like they have most nights, still 27c after reaching 29c this afternoon.

Pretty surprised by the GFS Gives more credence that we could exceed 33c potentially given this model has this forecast. There is a slither of 32c for tomorrow Arpege coming out now on the UK view. Saturday 32c Saturday (Scope for 33c given the spread of the 32c area). 34c on Sunday. Showers looks well scattered on Saturday, much more widespread on Sunday from the Midlands northwards, hence the steep drop off in terms of temperatures between the south east and everywhere else. Moving onwards, it may take until Tuesday night until the cool air reaches the far south, high 20s still possible on Monday and Mid twenties on Tuesday (The north will be cooler by the start of the coming week). Wednesday morning will be a culture shock with temperatures widely in single figures and a grass frost possible in the north with modest elevation. A lot of places I still expect to not see much, if any rain in the coming week, most coming from potential thundery downpours before another ridge builds in from the middle of the week.