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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Oh well the GFS shows the half way house solution between a cold block and a much milder south westerly shown tonight on the ECM, yep it's low pressure pushing through the UK.... AGAIN!!! Story of the winter really if this is the way forward, never classic zonality due to reasonable arctic blocking which despite the horrendous weather here has actually existed for a good part of the winter. It's just been steering near enough everything straight through us which is the problem, and when it hasn't it's been extreme jet streaks coming out of Canada.
  2. Captain Shortwave
    A very wild afternoon here, torrential rain and gales, then followed by more torrential rain with the odd flash of lightning. The wind got up for a time this evening too, but has calmed down a bit now I think.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Well the ECM flips... or is it flops this time, not sure Got to be honest, from the output this evening, the signs are not good really, GFS is a no but that's a given most times. UKMO frankly is sending the low east at day 6, so it's just the GEM really supporting anything which resembles significant cold.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, I scored a zero in the snow cup..... Again Clear, but not even a frost. Time to have our butts kicked by mother nature for the umpteenth time this winter.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Only the ECM can show a south westerly from the Carribean and then on the next run have a bracing easterly straight from Siberia. Look at that cold heading our way Strangely the ECM is poorest during the mid-range, failing to develop cut off heights over Iceland and relies on some very dubious amplification which looks much higher risk than a small chunk of heights shown on the UKMO/GEM and to an extent GFS which can link with heights over Svalbard.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Well the ECM crashed trying to pull a cold maneuver
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Solid effort here Huge differences to our west between the ECM and the UKMO/GFS here with the trough disrupting upstream and allowing a cleaner northerly as well as better ridging into Iceland on the latter frames.
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Another wet day ahead by the looks of it. I don't understand some of the north vs south stuff going on. What happened to showing a little bit of empathy for those affected by the current flooding situation.
  9. Captain Shortwave
    It's not brilliant but it's something colder and drier
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Meanwhile the most promising chart in weeks comes along for Scotland which has not been given a single mention Snow for Scotland and NW England from a brief blast from the Arctic. Shows that with the weakening jet you could get enough separation of the energy between Greenland and Scandinavia to open up a northerly flow if transient. Also as Steve below says the upstream low should move along the southern flank of that Scandi trough and would definitely put a dividing line across the UK with snow to the north.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, dry and cloudy here, better than expected as it looked like it might rain for most of the day today,
  12. Captain Shortwave
    On the other hand it's means I can sail to work after all the rain that system will bring. On a serious note that Friday fax is absolutely awful
  13. Captain Shortwave
    That's lucky number 7..... to a tee
  14. Captain Shortwave
    The type of pressure build from the ECM would probably bring more in the way of frost than we have been currently experiencing. Yes given the flow from the south the daytime highs would probably be double figures quite widely, but you would get a large diurnal range as the flow would quite likely bring clear skies if we get winds coming up from Spain as opposed to around the Azores region. February 2008 is a good example where some places reached the mid-teens during the day but experienced widespread frosts at night.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Rather windy this morning, fairly dry just a few spots of rain from the thickest cloud as it races by.
  16. Captain Shortwave
    There is a chance with the ECM/GEM showing more significant ridging in week 2 GEM Some hints but at this range it could very well dissolve into nothing in 48 hours time.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    One day the outlier control run will be right. ....probably when it's showing wind and rain
  18. Captain Shortwave
    If only John, if only That's tastier than my pasta carbonara!!!!
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, the showers have arrived here now. Hoping we don't see too much rain and wind today.
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Watch out for his chili, because frankly the loss of chili is the worst thing that could happen in the entire world It's dry here at the moment (desperately trying to regain weather related discussion but probably too late.) I'm guessing Andy Murray needs to watch out for his curry
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Now we need a Miles to watch out for his tiles and a man call Justin to watch for his dustbin
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Darn missed it, will have to watch on iplayer later Edit ah that's Thaxted road, that was the road I was told was flooded this morning.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    That's the best I've got. I call it a ramp for fleas
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Bit of a win win here, the storm misses us to the south and we end up in the dominant lows cold flow giving heavy wintry showers, especially in the west. Could be our lot though as the northern hemisphere profile looks very poor for our part of the world with the PV barreling around Canada with the other side of the pole seemingly free of any real energy. I guess we could bank the ECM for the start of next week as it doesn't bring destructive winds and the frontal rain stays mostly south of us. Plus the potential for some snow (especially over higher ground) I tried to be positive.... honest
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, fair to say there was chaos on the roads this morning, some of my work colleagues got in over an hour late as many of the roads around this area were closed due to flooding. The outllook continues to look as bad as even with storms tomorrow and possibly early next week. No end in sight to be honest.
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