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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, decent weekend down in Benfleet, had thundery showers with hail both days. Coldest night of the year tonight by the looks of it.
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, looks like it's brightening up from the west after having rain last night. Hopefully it will be a good day. Almost the weekend
  3. Captain Shortwave
    Very robust Scandi high forming on the ECM. Very common to happen during Spring and the surface conditions really depend on the flow around the high. Winds south of east generally bring sunny conditions whilst north of east can bring a lot of cloud with the time of year deciding how far inland the cloud gets. Also there might be rain in the south east quarter which might take some time to clear away which also adds some issues for some. If the ECM is right, then that high could stick around for a long time. The later frames do show an improvement with drier and warmer air moving up from southern europe so the low cloud would break up for most to allow warm sunny spells.
  4. Captain Shortwave
    looks like 6-9C in the north with the south remaining in double figures. Yes frosts by night but nothing special for March and still for most at low levels there will still not be any snow. Higher levels again could get some but again they got loads during the winter as they were high enough for the copious amounts of rain to turn to snow. The biggest middle finger from the models this morning is the cross model support for some kind of high to form to our north east with low pressure disrupting and heading south east through the UK. Would be typical to pick up an easterly now as it do nothing but bring in lots of low cloud.
  5. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Some cloud, some sun. Also the models starting to show a Scandi high developing. If only it was December/January when that happened
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, rather disappointing day today, a lot of cloud, though not overcast. Like many others I can only hope for the best for your dad. All I can say is stay strong and try to stay positive and hope things improve for the lot of you.
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all. Cloudy to start here. Hopefully it will brighten up. Also can 20C be reached again? Certainly possible
  8. Captain Shortwave
    I sure did. Looks like I will be keeping this until next winter. Unless a miracle happens Better get some sleep now. Night everyone
  9. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm by sheer definition, a burst of energy coming out of the states would surely result in the flattening of the pattern and more of a north/south split with heights sitting near the default position over Iberia into France with low pressure to our north. Heights do want to build in from the south west after the weekend and there are some signs of a new ridge forming in the Atlantic with a very weak slither of heights over the UK between the cells east and west of us. An example but probably a key timeframe. We need an easing of the jet to allow the ridge to our west to amplify andallow low heights to drop into the gap through the UK. Will it happen? I guess I'm the yin to your yang and think longer term high pressure will reassert itself just to the south/south west of the UK. But plenty of time for changes. One thing is for sure, the coming weekend will be a lot cooler than recent ones (though perhaps that is a given considering 20C was breached over the past 2 weekends).
  10. Captain Shortwave
    Evening, seems the showers missed me (apart from a few spots of rain). Pretty decent day overall. Some frosts might occur over the weekend along with some heavy showers for a time (but nothing really shouting a proper wintry blast)
  11. Captain Shortwave
    GEM has finally joined the northerly party GFS UKMO So a chillier weekend up ahead, though 850s looks very marginal south of the Scottish border.Nice longer northerly shot would be better here to get a more direct and prolonged hit.
  12. Captain Shortwave
    Cloudy here this morning, not overly dull with a few holes in the cloud. Hopefully like yesterday the cloud breaks and brings some warm sunshine.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm one issue is the GEM, which has consistently gone for no cold snap this weekend, and also no return to drier conditions next week. The model drops a low towards Iberia which prevents a northerly establishing and also forcing the Azores high away from the UK. The models does bring in a cyclonic easterly, but it's not particularly cold. I have to admit only the ECM looks to be bringing cold enough conditions for low lying snow. GFS looks toned down and the UKMO only is around -6C 850s. Still time to improve/or vanish. But the GEM is the sticking point as it's been pretty blunt in saying no to this for several runs now.
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, cloudy start this morning. Had to happen sooner or later I guess.
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Evening all, before the day is done I might as well show some musings about the weather coming up. First of all, this coming week will generally be cloudier than we have seen recently and as a response generally cooler. The exception being Wednesday which could be another day where 20C could be broken if some sheltered spots. After that it should turn cooler and fresher with single figure maxima probably next weekend. Beyond that it looks like there will be another plunge of cold air air down the Eastern seaboard and as such will engage the jet heading into the Atlantic. The strength being key but I reckon as it will be weaker than we experienced during the winter that the power should ease when it reaches us and head further north, hence perhaps we will see conditions settling down again in 7-10 days time. What intrigues me is that ridging over the Pacific which continues to inflict unseasonable cold over the Eastern states and Canada. But given the weaker jet at this time of year it might help in continuing to bring the Azores high close to the UK. Any significant cold looks unlikely apart from maybe a brief PM blast next weekend. Spring so far is going to plan in my view (if anything more progressive than I thought, I thought our first 20C max might come at the end of this month or the start of April)
  16. Captain Shortwave
    A little hope for those who want snow What also interests me from all the output is the easing of the westerly conditions after next weekend, perhaps suggesting that the unsettled spell might not last too long. Also it seems that energy is yet again reluctant to clear from the Greenland region than the models originally suggested. High pressure gets back in again The polar airmass might give some snow showers in places for a time. Days 9 and 10 look settled across most of the UK.
  17. Captain Shortwave
    More than just welcome. To see 2 days already this March where 20C has been reached is really something. I've thoroughly enjoyed this spell. Nice to see the sun for a long period of time.
  18. Captain Shortwave
    About to hit the road and return to Saffron Walden. Windows down probably playing some classic rock along the dual carriageway. Have a good afternoon everyone
  19. Captain Shortwave
    What a lovely afternoon here, and yet again it looks like the 20C mark is being broken in the region with Lydd airport in Kent supposedly at 20C right now and I'm sure more places will join it with a couple of hours until the maximum temperature is reached. 17C and completely clear here in Great Yarmouth
  20. Captain Shortwave
    My bad Still I must say that from the models, the only white thing I will see in the morning will probably be going in my breakfast cup of tea Maybe an Atlantic ridge will rise from the depths in future output to bring cold air down from the north, otherwise it just looks rather wet with low pressure residing close to the UK after a rather cloudy and average first half of the week. Edit - Nice unrealistic low resolution run from the GFS there. How it pulls a blocking high to our north east from T192 I have no idea
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Morning, slightly hungover and currently residing back in the triangle (of sun for once). Another lovely day on the cards. Thanks Steve by the way. I personally want to move on from this winter and frankly getting exciting over charts showing cool and wet conditions doesn't exactly do it for me. I hope we see improvement to a proper winter blast or some spring warmth rather than a return to what we saw all winter. Anyway hope everyone enjoys this fine Spring day (two fantastic weekends on the bounce weather wise).
  22. Captain Shortwave
    Hmm the GFS really need to fix their model as those predictions looks way over the top considering the predicted air temperatures 6-9C here Surface pattern shows it being pretty windy, but not enough to create very low wind chill temperatures. Very disappointing runs in my eyes which seems to buck the trend on here this morning. Unsettled and wet with temperatures slightly below average looks to be agreed on to some degree, of course at this time of year this means temperatures across the UK falling shy of double figures rather than anything particularly cold. A clean northerly with snow showers I would like, a big area of high pressure over or just to the south east of the UK I would like. But not a return to the conditions we suffered throughout winter. I am really enjoying seeing the spring flowers and the blossom on the trees which was almost non existent at this time last year.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    Another lovely sunny afternoon here, warm again too. Even the weekend looks decent for this region. To think after the horrors of the winter just gone, the first half of March has almost been bone dry. Who would have thought it.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Away from the short term, no real sign of any significant cold outbreak or settled weather. Just a few ridges from the Azores high here and there which could bring drier conditions with the risk of frosts. Looks like a return to a more mobile westerly pattern with alternating mild/cool airmasses. Nothing spectacular either way.
  25. Captain Shortwave
    Morning all, clear start to the day here.
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