Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on June 21 2015

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About Captain Shortwave

  • Birthday 17/02/90

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  • Gender
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    Chatteris (Cambridgeshire Fens)
  • Interests
    bowling, chemistry, meteorology, 1990s gaming
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. Another sunny start, today should be the sunniest day of the week with a drier south easterly feed. Temperatures look similar to yesterday so 25-27C the likely high. Tomorrow still has the potential to be hot though there will be a line of showers moving through at some point in the day, but either side there will be plenty of sunshine though turning slightly fresher behind. Still the risk of some torrential thunderstorms Sunday night as further shallow areas of low pressure move up from France.
  2. Lovely day with plenty of sunshine and just a little fair weather cloud. The temperature hit 25C by early afternoon but that south easterly breeze kind of stopped the temperatures rising any further.
  3. Things not looking too bad after this weekend with high pressure potentially building back in from the south west. GFS/UKMO The UKMO more bullish about this, but rain look restricted to the north and west. GEFs similar with the Euro ridge gaining more of an influence after slipping away slightly. So whilst not as fine and sunny as this week, next week doesn't look bad and still pretty warm, especially in the south and east. Nearer the present, 29C forecast for the Moray Firth tomorrow and in eastern England on Saturday, 30C still possible in the east on Saturday if the conditions remain sunny for long enough.
  4. A sunny start here, going to be a cracker of a day with temperatures up a degree or so. Saturday could hit 30C but appears to be dependent on how much cloud moves up associated with that front, if there isn't too much then 30C should be reached, if there is quite a bit and a few showers then we won't, also with the winds swing direction then some unexpected areas could hit that figure. Sunday night looks to be the one to watch in regards to thunderstorms as a shallow heat low approaches from the south.
  5. Still questions regarding the weekend, but one aspect of the breakdown might not be strictly true, that it might take until next week to fully break the warm spell down. Widespread warmth for the next couple of days at least. Into the weekend we see the potential for some showery outbreaks to move north across the UK. Arpege at midday on Saturday. This moves swiftly through with sunshine following behind. Very warm across England and Scotland away from the far north east where sea breezes could bring in low cloud, still high twenties, possibly closing in on 30C. Western areas with a lot more cloud will see temperatures suppressed. Sunday sees fresher conditions in the north and west with showers, further south we see a repeat of Saturday though the rain arrives late on in the day. Temperatures still pretty good in the east, in fact eastern Scotland will see a much better day in terms of sunshine and temperatures, still mid to high twenties possible. So in the short range, the heat looks to continue in eastern areas, it does turn fresher in the west. Lets see what the ECM comes up with.
  6. just fair weather cloud today, good spells of sunshine and just a light north westerly breeze. Up to 25c. Good call guys on the hotspot, Heathrow at 26c.
  7. Nice day, it did turn cloudier for a while during the middle of the day but the stratus tended to melt away leaving lots of sunshine and patchy cumulus. A high of 22C.
  8. Just a comparison for today (GFS/Arpege/actual temperatures) GFS out by a couple of degrees even at T0 apparently, Arpege bang on the money. So again in retrospect it is perhaps unwise to judge how warm it is going to be by the GFS which is wrong by a good few degrees even at the point of initialisation. So what do we have in store for the next few days So 24/25C tomorrow, up a couple of degrees on Thursday and Friday, interesting that the far north of Scotland (Morray Firth) could be the warmest spot with 28C, I suspect anywhere with prolonged sunny spells inland could reach that mark. Saturday has offered complications with shallow areas of low pressure tracking northwards towards the UK offering more cloud and the chance of showers (possibly thundery). This low near the UK is now a much more significant feature (UKMO downplays this somewhat and hence a much better scenario), small scale features like this are hard to pick up and even harder to model correctly even at four days out. Still a solid few days of very warm weather ahead with a good chance of this holding on into the weekend, especially the further south and east you are. So conclusions, maybe stay clear of the GFS for two reasons, firstly its apparent struggles with the longwave pattern as said earlier, second the fact it is clearly producing too low a temperature across the board even at T0. The second is with shallow depressions moving in across the weekend, that perhaps we need more runs to clarify the track of these systems.
  9. The ECM continues to model the weekend differently with it again rebuilding the Euro ridge with very warm to hot conditions persisting until the middle of next week when we finally see fresher conditions push east. An increasing risk of thunderstorms breaking out and heights lower but again temperatures close to 30C again. It will be interesting to see whether the ECM has got the handle of that southerly tracking low correct and hence is right about extending the warmth through into the following week.
  10. The GFS actually doesn't show a single day where we get into the mid-twenties, let alone closing in on the 30C, for example Thursday GFS just 21-23C with just NW Wales getting to 25C. Arpege calling for 25-27C widely Friday similar To me the GFS does look to be undercooking the temperatures by a good few degrees, add to that it is really washing out the warmer 850s which may or may not be correct, arpege last summer was a lot closer to the general temperature range. Still no real agreement on the evolution over the weekend, complicated by an area of low pressure running along the jetstream towards Iberia and how this interacts with the ridge over Europe. As such no agreement on timing of any breakdown and hence when cooler air from the west makes it across the whole of the UK. Just as an aside, can we try to keep things on topic in here, I know that might be difficult due to the horrific events of last night, but there is a thread open to collect our thoughts and emotions on the event. Thank you.
  11. As many have stated the GFS isn't exactly reliable in delivering accurate highs, though the first few days of the warm spell are now in range of the arpege which was very good at getting within a degree or so of the actual maximum. Thursday/Friday highs 25-27C widely on both days and by that I mean pretty much anywhere in the UK away from coastal areas where onshore breezes will develop. Still interest in how things will breakdown over the weekend, worth noting the GFS takes that low so far west that the southeastern third actually avoids this and stays very warm until Monday when a weak cold front moves south east across the UK. UKMO a little quicker perhaps with fresher air moving eastwards during Sunday. There is enough evidence that after this spell we could see another warm up during the middle of next week as the Azores ridge moves north east allowing another southerly source airflow. ECM differs again this evening and rebuilds the Euro ridge over the weekend with Sunday hotter still in eastern areas, in fact these areas remain hot and sunny throughout the whole bank holiday weekend, the west always at risk of thundery downpours.
  12. Lovely day, just a light southerly wind with lots of sunshine. Temperatures up to 24C.
  13. Not too bad, sunshine and just some fair weather cloud, temperatures peaking around 19/20C.
  14. Lots of sunshine here to start with just a little high cloud and a few bits of cumulus.
  15. Just subtle differences in regards to when that shallow Iberian low moves north through the Bay of Biscay and up through the western side of the UK, the ECM tracking this more slowly north and hence allowing a hot and sultry day in the east. The GFS a little quicker but interestingly we don't really see the decline of the Euro ridge with the ridge being re-enforced by the Azores ridge which moves in quickly during the end of the bank holiday weekend. The ensembles seem less keen with a NW/SE split and a west/southwest flow though of course the operationals could be more on the money. Otherwise Sunday offers the potential of seeing temperatures touch the low thirties, given the ECM has 850s up to around 18C over the south, just a question of whether we keep the clear skies for long enough or whether we see a more widespread breakdown during the day. Otherwise this week looks very nice with sunshine and light winds with the temperatures rising further from Thursday onwards and to be honest the temperatures before then look pretty decent.