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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on June 21 2015

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    Meteorology, science, retro gaming and writing fiction.
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    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. The path of that cold pool is pretty much perfect from the ECM as it avoids the Baltic and north sea, very very clean advection and would probably see 850s bottom out around -18c across the south east with possibly -14/15c widely across the UK. That is bitterly cold.
  2. No point really commenting on the individual runs, but more to stress that the intense cold to our east is going to be another difficullty in terms of model output. You would think the current background signals are difficult enough. Personally i think we will get hit at some point in the next two weeks, but timing is going to be difficult to pin down and obviously the longevity of any cold spell that does arrive.
  3. This severe solution keeps cropping up. The risk of a severe spell of wintry weather is very real indeed. It might not happen of course for the UK but I suspect the coming couple of weeks will be newsworthy for some parts of Europe. Easterly winds look odds on now for the UK. It is just the question of whether they are dry and chilly or we get a deep freeze from that huge chunk of Siberian air which is going to be heading westwards in 5-10 days time. I understand the doubts given previous fails, but this set up comes off the back of so many drivers in our favour which are currently well underway so our chances are significantly higher than we have seen since 2013 but with with the jackpot prize almost within reach. I think this time we can have an element of faith that this could actually come off
  4. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    One London bus special coming up. I suspect this will be me in around ten days time... Seriously, the snow amounts from those beasterly charts would make getting to work very difficult.
  5. Well we do have an easterly starting in just four days time. If the ECM is correct of course. That said the middle part of next week looks bright with maybe a couple of wintry showers for the south east. But by now we have that Euro low developing with the high going over the top. Given the background signals we shouldn't see your usual sinker from here with further cold air pushing south west from the deep cold pooling over Russia. There is a reason why we are seeing multiple operationals toying with this, as well as the Metoffice repeatedly stressing the risk of significant snow. There is a real risk of severe cold pushing in from the east, enough so that the forecasts have to stress the risk despite large amounts of uncertainty. Personally if we get to this point in four days time then I think that parts of the south and east could be in a spot of bother.
  6. The ECM is good enough to lower heights suffficiently to our south and prop the high far enough north for an easterly. My goodness, that cold pool coming on the scene in week 2, that would be one in the historic events list if that comes off. It is certainly feasible given the background signals at least. There would also be some snow arriving during that first pulse of cold air around day7/8
  7. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    If the high gets far enough then the beast will get unleashed on us. We pretty much have two options for next week now. Either the high doesn't get far enough north and we end up with a dry contimental feed, or it does and the deepest cold pool in years takes a direct hit for our region. There is a reason why disruptive snow has been mentioned for days.
  8. I know that the ECM has led us up the garden path on many occasions, but maybe this time it is right. At three days out we have a low developing off the coast of Canada. I know I might be completely wrong here but i just cannot see this behaving in the manner it is shown on most of the models. I can't see this blowing up and then simply detaching itself from the polar jet, and then trundles into the mid-atlantic and becomes cut off allowing a flat jet across the Atlantic which is part of the reason for the poor outcomes. The trough to our west on the ECM simply makes more sense to me. Still I am not sure how quickly the cold will actually come but I still think we will have a surface east/south easterly by this time next week.
  9. So we have most models fairly dry and not particularly cold at day 5. Then we have the ECM showing an ene wind with the -8c isotherm already across the SE with colder air sitting just to our east. What drama at the moment.
  10. I know things are getting pretty tense with the model output being distinctly volatile with the Metoffice updates being a valuable source of information. But can we please keep to model discussion in here as there are pages reserved for the metoffice updates already. Thank you.
  11. Driving across the A66 in heavy snow was an interesting experience. Certainly beats the rainy Fens I guess.

    1. shuggee


      Yay! Welcome oop north :laugh:

  12. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    Well today ended up pretty horrid with steady rain. As for next week, we could be in the freezer in 6/7 days time or we may never go cold. Still no nearer to knowing what direction we will go in.
  13. At day 4 we have an area of low pressure exit the US, but somehow it manages to take an eternity to interact with the deep low heights towards Greenland. If this interacts earlier you would see the heights close to the UK drive NNE and allow the cold air to our east to back westwards much more quickly. A lot of uncertainties regarding that interaction between that low and the tropospheric vortex over Greenland, this could act as a catalyst to dig low heights a lot further south in the Atlantic in the earlier timeframes which would be a big help going forward. I must admit I cannot see that low trundle aimlessly towards the Azores.Okay the trough finally begins to dig south but it takes a very long time to do so.
  14. Looking at the GEFs, there seems to be two routes where we miss out. 1) The high doesn't get far enough north and we end up under a Euro/Scandi ridge, still likely to be chilly with a south easterly flow. 2) The we get the block but the cold air from the east phases with the Atlantic trough too far north and we see low pressure develop to our south west with either a chilly and wet or potentially very mild and wet if tropical maritime air gets pulled up over western Europe from that stalling low. Examples of both Our middle ground between these two solutions is our winning spot where cold air advects west over the UK with low heights developing directly to our south allowing showers or longer spells of snow. The quicker the evolution occurs (GEM being is the best solution) would cause less stress I feel, the longer this episode goes on the more dangerou the scenario gets. As for those charts above, if the high sits to our east there is always a chance of the pattern re-amplifying to get the cold air back in, the latter solution to be honest may be a game over situation as a west base -NAO tend to turn increasingly into a +NAO over time with westerlies returning. Anyway for balance, lets see a winner shall we.
  15. GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 6 Large differences between the GEM and the GFS/UKMO by day 6, the GEM is possibly one of the best runs I have seen up to day 10 with bitterly cold air pushing wests next week. The UKMO is better than the GFS in regards to better cold pooling pushing west under the high. Larges amounts of uncertainty in the 4-5 day range so we could see the output turn into snowy nirvana or we could still end up losing out.