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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on July 22 2018

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About Captain Shortwave

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    Meteorology, science, retro gaming and writing fiction.
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    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. Well time to crack put the fancy single malt, although it will probably turn out to be Bells in a fancy bottle..... Hopefully it won't be long to see the next route to cold, and then the next way it will fail.
  2. Two areas of frustration here; First the ECM, a whopping deep and broad trough forming over north America around day 5 which seems broader than the other models, that is where the Atlantic pattern flattens out and the trouble is once that initial chance goes the ECM locks the pattern in with that Pacific ridge/US trough combo which leaves us with a fairly modest westerly flow (sort of like winter 2014/15) The second issue is even if the initial ridge works we still have the finer resolution of the cols pool to our north east, note how the UKMO and GEM are holding a cold pool over Norway where the deepest cold is held and forming its own little circulation which will cause trouble for advecting the cold in our direction. Ah the perils of easterlies, last year was less stressful because you already had the Scandi high in situ before things really kicked off. Still could all change, but i must stand back in awe at what could happen across parts of the US in the next ten days, to be hit with such brutal cold (sub -20c 850s) not once but possibly twice in that period. It could still change, you have two solutions at day 4/5 from models which should be close to getting the pattern right at that timescale so fingers crossed for better output later.
  3. Ecm has diverged from around day 5 onwards by lifting out that upstream trough whilst the ukmo/gfs keep this well defined to day 6 allowing a stronger northwards push of the Atlantic ridge. Slightly concerning that you would think the ECM should be the best bet to resolve this at this range. Still it looks a little suspect at the moment given the trough splits with the parent low deepening as it rides over the ridge. Oh well on to the 00z suite we go with all options still on the table.
  4. General thought for week 2, possibly that the high to our north east will decline as the next low from the north west probably drops south east on a similar course to the ones coming through over the next couple of days. So an east/north east flow for a couple of days which could bring snow showers into eastern areas before a more general band of precipitation moves south east through the country into possibly very cold air. The pattern looks primed to remain cold or very cold throughout with low heights in the Mediterranean being the constant feature. Worth noting that the solutions keeping some weak high to our north east is perfectly feasible which would adjust any Atlantic lows westwards.
  5. Decent set of runs this morning, of course the detail will change. Even with pressure from the west once the deep cold becomes entrenched over Europe any high building over the top will be difficult to sink and will likely sheer away instead, the day 10 ECM will probably leave a battleground as the low heights upstream disrupt. Speaking of the ECM, very very cold by day 10, probably widespread sub -10c minina under a slack easterly feed.
  6. General take on things given the morning output. Either we are going to see this signal dropped later on, or (and which i think could be more likely) that the trend to build heights to our north and north west will accelerate and we might start to be looking like having a blocked pattern set up from day 7 onwards, whether is cold or very cold depends on the intensity of cold that drops around any developing high and the track it takes. Easterlies will always be colder due to not having a large sea track and cold can remain in place or intensify at this time of year over the continent. 06z gfs and para are a step in the right direction.
  7. Eastern areas becoming very cold with the arctic air remaining as well as a light flow developing off the continent, that colder denser air is important in the hope of fighting back against whatever comes in from the west. Quite tight on the upstream evolution, there is probably enough there to allow the low heights over Greenland to bleed south east rather than pushing away that weak high. Day 8 is good enough, that low has had the sting taken out of it and is looking like dropping through the UK whilst retaining an airmass cold enough for snow with pressure rising in the Atlantic.
  8. So front after front just grinds to a halt close to the UK. Not particularly great as the precipitation dies a death with a cold and cloudy outcome. By the way this like other solutions will likely be further away from reality than normal. On the flip side this evolution is nowhere near normal. Something is afoot and that wedge solution keeps cropping up.
  9. Well this is better... An easterly in week 2 which eventually becomes cold and unstable enough to bring in some snow showers, Good trend this morning across the board were the mid range pattern is more amplified compared to recent days and as such we are now starting to seeing more interest from the second week of January onwards.
  10. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    Happy new year to everyone, hopefully the weather might get more interesting.
  11. Captain Shortwave

    Overview of 2018 - thoughts and summaries

    An interesting year, well until mid-August when things have become more non-descript. The wintry blast in late February was truly something, not an awful lot of snow but some quite extraordinary daytime temperatures. A repeat happened in March with a little more snowfall. Then the period up to mid-April which brought concerns regarding flooding impacting the crops in this part of the world, only for the rain to simply stop and it would not rain much for the next four months. May/Early June were disappointing as frequent winds between the north and east resulted in gloomy conditions only for this to improve in late June with July getting very close to the extraordinary summer month of July 2006. Many days topped close to 30C with fairly low humidity, but there was a brief spike in late July which was something I have never quite experience in the UK, temperatures close to 35C with almost tropical levels of humidity, to have these temperatures with large amounts of cloud cover and thunderstorms was quite something (not so much for my wife who was 8 months pregnant though). The real focal point of this year has been how weak the westerlies have been with frequent prolonged spells of dry weather, yet rainfall totals have been raised by the fact that when rain did arrive i tended to linger due to the same slow moving longwave patterns.
  12. Day 6 GFS/UKMO/GEM All three have that shallow trough slowly being absorbed by the upstream ridge pushing north east in the Atlantic, slightly different ideas on how to resolve this. The UKMO seems quite keen to dig a large cold pool south east towards the Azores (This looks a little erroneous to me). One thing I will say is I don't think a return to westerlies is the way forward with the high staying close to the UK, just a case of hoping to see a trough dig a long way south across the eastern parts of the US to finally give our high the amplitude required to turn things colder. The GEM attempts this though the high is always too close to the UK.
  13. Still waiting for something significant to develop but a couple of reassuring things to look at. The last few days we have not seen any real effort to develop and truly cold and wintry pattern, on the other hand the most amplified solutions from the ECM have tended to pretty fairly close to the mark as the day 7 charts a few days back have been pretty much replicated whilst other models have moved to this. For me i think the models have tended to overdo the natural cooling over the pole trying to increase the strength of westerlies and now we are seeing this be moderated with high pressure remaining in place. I guess we can hope for an amplified operational in the coming days because it probably has a better chance than normal of verifying than normal given the background signals. Fingers crossed.....
  14. The ICON is okay, certainly not cannon fodder at least at it has its favourable quirks as it comes with a lot of free to view information. Moving on, well a lot of money is being bet on the strat response suddenly appearing in the models for week 2 to drive that UK hign further north, it will topple regardless but the further north it gets to deeper the cold pool advected into Europe which could then move westwards. At the moment the day 5-8 range shows a weak northerly which could bring isolated wintry showers to north sea coasts. That said a move to bring a front south across the UK to clear away the cloud would be a good thing as mild and dull doesn't really cut it for me. I get the feeling that the uk high could remain in place for longer than is currently projected as the strong jetstreak coming out of the states is reduced somewhat but the high never gets far enougn north to bring bitter cold, the upstream set up just seems to want to throw up ridges from the Azores which is a problem when your major route out of this is to drive low pressure.... towards the Azores....
  15. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    The cloud has drifted down this afternoon unfortunately. Nothing unusual in these set ups though.