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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on July 22

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    Meteorology, science, retro gaming and writing fiction.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    A fairly decent day, dodging the heaviest showers and seeing quite a lot of sunshine. Still mild.... For now.....
  2. Well there is the deeper cold pool to at least inject a little bit of instability. The retrograde still looks good here as well.
  3. Certainly enough evidence that the high wil likely shift west during week 2 to sit close to Scotland with a generally light easterly across most of the UK. 850s look cool enough for temperatures to drop back into single figures with night frosts. It does look mostly dry though if we do see a distrubance along with colder 850s develop then we could pull something more significant than stratus off the north sea. I guess the excitement is more about how this game of hemispheric chess will pan out rather than the benign conditions we will see for the foreseeable. The trend continues to see the pattern retrogress, lets hope the high can maintain enough latitude to pull something significant our way.
  4. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    Quite a stunning sight when driving between kings lynn and home seeing a huge line of storms against the mostly clear skies before hand. Saw a few flashes of pink lightning before driving through some heavy rain.
  5. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    This thread has now been locked with a fresh new thread started below.
  6. Good morning everyone; GIven we are approaching the upcoming winter, I thought it would be good to have a new thread. As usual try to keep to some level of weather related chat in here and of course be polite and repsectful in your posting. Thankyou and yes winter is coming (Even if we do spend most of it wearing shorts)
  7. No real sign to be honest of anything cold even at the surface in the next 10 days, though it looks like next week we will see things become drier after what appears to be a rather poor weekend with wind and rain. High pressure and a southerly feed could result in very mild conditions if skies stay clear. To be honest in terms of seeing an amplified pattern bear fruit further down the line, perhaps reference is needed to November 2014 which had persistent heights to our East/North east which didn't really have an impact in the rather underwhelming winter that followed, so honestly from that one viewpoint alone I am unconvinced, that was also a year where a lot of factors did support a cold than average winter would be incoming. The morning runs so far again show a trough diging a long way south at the start of week 2, supporting the southerly idea. GFS/GEM day 7
  8. Captain Shortwave

    2018 Tennis Thread

    Whether or not the warning was fair. Serena could have been professional about it and not throw a tantrum and ruin the greatest moment of a young woman's career so far. That said she has form for this behaviour. From those professionals who have been defending her, they really need to take the politics out of the equation and publically condemn her behaviour. There might be inconsistency regarding the enforcement of this rule which could be looked at but in the end if you don't break the rules then you won't get punished. It is as simple as at, no gender or race cards are needed to be played here. I really do feel for Osaka here, she played fantastically and had a true highlight of her life robbed essentially by a woman was clearly gettig frustrated by a mixture of being outplayed and being unable to find the level of form she had during the previous rounds.
  9. Captain Shortwave

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    It may end up okay in the end, that low allows the jetstream to push east acrosd the north of the UK and into Scandinavia so by week 2 we now are looking at a strong area of high pressure centred over northern france and southern England so possibly a chance of warmer conditions developing than probably possible under a slack easterly feed which looked most likely a couple of days ago. Still a slightly bizarre set up developing late this coming week.
  10. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    A high of 15c before the rain appeared. A truly vile summers day.
  11. Captain Shortwave

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    At least it has been dry today so the weather is at least usable. Tomorrow however looks to be a washout, a shame for the tourist industry given it is the biggest weekend of the year. Though I guess we should be used to this even if we have dodged bad weather on every other bank holiday weekend this year.
  12. Captain Shortwave

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    Worth noting the ECM op is not supported by the ensembles. So at the moment the operational looks to be an outlier though of course at 7 days out it will be difficult to pin down a single system moving through the no other output seems to suggest that a trough will move east through the UK next weekend with the model outlook favouring the jetstream moving northwards later this week and sitting over or just north of Scotland so settled weather is favoured though the level of warmth remains to be seen. ECM ens GEFs Slight differences in the position of the high and of course this would affect the temperatures seen but settled weather is favoured for week two after a changeable week ahead.
  13. Captain Shortwave

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    This morning's run is certainly more believable than the "how many cut off lows can we stick over Europe at once" output of yesterday. Still at that timeframe you would suspect the pattern is probably too far north. The gfs is flatter but still sees high pressure driftung across from time to time with rainfall falling off after the bank holiday weekend. As for the weekend itself, given the excellent conditions we have seen on previous bank holidays this year, this one looks more typical, cool and fairly wet which is a shame.
  14. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    The rain cleared here just after breakfast. Not too bad with quite a bit of sunshine. It does feel quite chilly though at just 18c.
  15. 14.9c and 52mm A fairly dry and warm month, in the end the conditions will either revolve around settled conditions or more zonal set up.