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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on June 21 2015

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About Captain Shortwave

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    bowling, chemistry, meteorology, 1990s gaming
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    It has been sunny and calm so far today. Hopefully this will continue.
  2. Ultimately we have cold and unstable air towards Iceland with a series of Atlantic lows which it can be drawn into creating an Atlantic trough, whilst we have heights to our north west we have these cut off and too far away from the UK to steer low pressure to our south. We need subtropical ridging to push north and allow cold pools such as those over Iceland to clear south east to give us a chance. In the end the increasing likelyhood is that we will see a deep trough develop just to the west of us which could kick off an unsettled period of weather and low pressure is allowed to move close to the UK and deepen in response to the cold air moving south into the Atlantic. GFS In the end the GFS like the ECM this morning tend to keep heights fairly high over Europe with a north/south split, but there is scope for the jet to move further south though not enough probably to deliver cold conditions (Just unsettled or very wet the options). There is always a chance that we could get another go at getting some cold conditions, but that relies on the movement of any arctic heights which have proven to be very hard to predict.
  3. SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    A really gloomy day today, it was pretty much twilight from early afternoon with lots of mist and low cloud.
  4. New thread with the winter madness just around the corner. Signs of a more amplified pattern setting up over the next couple of weeks, nothing too significant just yet but the odd frost here and there is likely in the colder periods. Remeber to keep things civl in here please and at least try to have a bit of weather in your posts. Thankyou
  5. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    Not a bad day so far with cloud clearing to a chilly and quite sunny afternoon. So... I will be locking this thread in a few moments and a new one will be posted. Edit - Locked, new thread here
  6. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    First frost of the autumn today, had to defrost the car at half 5 this morning. Still a glorious day followed so good times.
  7. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    Nice Sunday up here, a chilly day sure but with good sunny spells and light winds.
  8. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    A better day today with some sunny spells, a cracking red harvest moon on show on the drive back from Peterborough. It was a shame I couldn't get a picture that did it justice.
  9. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    A very dull day today with a lot of stratus floating around. It still felt quite mild with little breeze around again. Looks like we could see the first widespread frost of the season on Sunday night. Temperatures around freezing potentially.
  10. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    Not a lot to say westher wise, a lot of high cloud over the past couple of days though with some sunshine here and there. Not a lot of breeze so it has felt pleasant. Hopefully things will pick interest wise over the coming weeks.
  11. Quite a change over the past 24 hours. The ECM shows this nicely coparing todays day 5 chart and yesterdays day 6. A flatter upstream pattern results in a weak dig southwards of cold air in the Atlantic and a faster process of cutting that low off, hence a less pronounced burst of warmth from the south. So even by Friday a cooler north westerly flow will be developing. A word of caution on those cold looking charts in week 2, the same scenario could occur which could scupper a potential cold plunge if the models have over amplified any northerly flow at the very end of the month. That said the evolution in question (The initial burst of warth with pressure building close to the UK and then retrogressing is supported by the MJO progression). It is a question of whether the models are over-egging the responsible by making it too dramatic or indeed too quick. Still the pattern remains interesting going forward.
  12. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    Brian was never going to bring too much trouble overour region, the storm peaked well west of the UK and has steadily filled as it approached us. Just a breezy day here with a lot of low level cloud with limited sunny spells. The pattern next week is highly amplified which could lead to proper warmth again or a cold spell if we end up on one side of a ridge or the other.
  13. Good agreement on a southerly flow developing during the second half of next week as said above we see a highly amplified pattern develop with an Atlantic trough digging far south towards the Azores allowing warm air to pump northwards over western Europe. GFS/UKMO/ECM How long this pattern lasts is unknown and could breakdown quickly with a lot of options on the table with a spell of unusually warm weather, westerlies returning on possible retrogression with much cooler weather developing. I would suggest that an amplified pattern looks more likely to verify at the moment with the potential for blocking to set up and be maintain suppressing the development of the polar votex as we end the month. To make a point the GEM would get us close to Halloween 2014 levels of warmth for late October by next weekend.
  14. Sunshine levels October 2017

    Ex-Ophelia really has been the only notable event this month, otherwise the weather has been rather benign and with winds from a gnerally mild direction it has been fairly cloudy with very mild nights at times. September was certainly the more inteesting month. Well beyond now we have a low which will cross the UK this weekend but then it is probably 50/50 on weather we see a more changeable pattern or whether heights over Europe gain the upper hand again.
  15. SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    Well 23C was reached in the sunnier spells until the sky got a spray tan. It really was quite a sight to behold. I did manage to get a picture before the smoke and sand cleared so got the orange sun with clear blue skies just sitting behind it. I will just have to see if I can get it off my phone of course. Some cracking photos, it is wierd to think that in the end the chances of 25C being reached was thwarted by a strange combination of saharan dust and some wildfires over a thousand miles away.