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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on July 22 2018

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About Captain Shortwave

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    Meteorology, science, retro gaming and writing fiction.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. I’d be surprised if we saw widespread totals like that, locally perhaps but I suspect a lot of areas could stay dry if we are dealing with showers. This looks better than the last few days at least, in fact many could have some pretty decent weather and if we are dealing with showers/thunderstorms then there is a bit of interest in the mix. One concern is the potential for winds off the north sea on the ECM suite that could bring a lot of mist/low cloud. So edging the final position of that shallow low westwards would be helpful as that should allow more of an east/south easterly element
  2. Steady or heavy rain and a strong north east wind. Yep it is a summer write off day. Shame it looks like repeating itself for a good couple of days as well.
  3. The low cloud rolled in during the morning, whilst it did lift and become broken up the fact that there was extensive mid/high level stuff meant it remained cloudy and as such only reached 18c. Ironically the first spots of rain and sunshine appeared at the same time today, during the evening.
  4. A fine and very warm day here, some cloud just starting to bubble up. Currently 27c.
  5. Strange day, just some fair weather cloud and a moderate westerly breeze, yet the temperatures are doing well, almost at 25c here so feeling warmer than it actually looks.
  6. Always love a bit of uncertainty. U.K. trough or this… Certainly a better outcome though the pressure rise at the end of the week brings the risk of mist/low cloud into eastern parts for a time. The day 6 temperature profile looks teasing to say the least with the 16c isotherm approaching the south east. The GFS looks to have made a decent shift west too albeit still with showers and longer spells of rain passing through.
  7. The one clear trend this morning is that the low pushing up from the south will likely be slow moving as opposed to your typical thundery breakdown where the low gets absorbed quickly into the jet stream. Two days between these charts and that low has trundles a couple of hundred miles. This could be a very wet end to the week for some. Hopefully it comes with pyrotechnics. Week 2 - I am dubious of Uber-blocking charts, something less extreme will be the result, however how settled/unsettled it will be is unclear.
  8. I was a little worried as the morning was quite cloudy with a lot of in-fill, however this broke up around lunchtime to leave a mostly sunny afternoon. A high of 22c.
  9. The models are certainly eying up the possibility of pushing an area of very warm/unstable air towards the U.K. Wednesday night, it would likely result in elevated showers/thunderstorms (Most likely towards the South eastern half of the UK. Unsure if 30c could be reached during the day, like tomorrow we may end up falling just short. Beyond this, the UKMO throws up another ridge with a cold pool maintained to the south west of the U.K. We await the GFS, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the current American solution is too quick at moving that trough east over the U.K.
  10. Lovely day yesterday with mostly sunny skies and the temperature hitting 25c. Not looking likely today, thick cloud here since around 7am, you would think that the wind was blowing from the opposite direction.
  11. Plenty of sunshine here this morning, the temperatures are rising nicely and we should hit the mid-twenties again. A high of 24c today with fairly low humidity.
  12. The ECM temperature forecast for the weekend match up well with the forecast cloud cover (Sunday for example has large amounts of cloud over SE England and the nearby continent whilst further north and west there are clear skies). Feeling a tad dubious about this, or at the very least the amounts predicted, not to mention forecasting at that time frame accurately would be very difficult so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next run remove this completely. Week 2 looks a little more mixed with weather systems getting a little closer, but how much progress any rain makes is still up f
  13. There was a brief shower this morning that was unexpected (especially due to the lack of significant cloud cover). Lots of sunshine with some patchy cloud and it feels humid outside.
  14. ECM day 6 High pressure pretty much slap bang over the U.K. Very warm and sunny for most as any fronts get pushed away from the north and west of the U.K. Day 7 The position of the high doesn’t get much better than this for countrywide summer weather.
  15. Not a showstopper but some very solid temperatures during this week. Winds generally from the west or south west, so eastern parts will see the sunniest and warmest conditions with the risk of more cloud and a little rain towards the north west. Week 2 still suggests another push of heights towards the U.K. If we can draw a continental flow or see surface heights settle through the U.K. we could see very warm or potentially hot conditions develop (close to 30c). GEM looks good at day 7 A pretty close match to the UKMO at day 6.
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