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Captain Shortwave

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Captain Shortwave last won the day on June 21 2015

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About Captain Shortwave

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    Meteorology, science, retro gaming and writing fiction.
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    Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.

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  1. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    So tomorrow looks like another fine day, again cloud could build up which could prevent temperatures rising towards the 30C mark. Probably 28C the high tomorrow, probably a degree or so up from today for most. Friday looks interesting with increasing instability ahead of a cold front. This could trigger a few thunderstorms, sunshine amounts will probably be higher with infill being less of an issue. 30C the high in London probably. The weekend looks mostly dry, Saturday the cloudier and cooler day with the risk of a little rain or perhaps a heavy shower if the cloud breaks up. Sunday looks fine, sunny and hot.
  2. To be fair the sheer audacity of an operational model to throw that extreme a solution in high resolution is worthy of comment, though it will probably not happen and we will see something more realistic. Like the extremely cold runs during the winter..... oh wait they actually happened so perhaps disregard that part. We get these runs virtually every year, so it will likely be replaced by something more realistic with perhaps low thirties towards the south east on a couple of days. Though it almost feels like tempting fate if you do say it won't happen this year.
  3. Well we have; 1) A huge Euro/Scandinavian ridge with hot air being drawn into the arctic circle and beyond. 2) An Atlantic trough which also looks to become omnipresent, the jetstream running SW/NE across the north west of the UK. That broad set up certainly makes a plume event a possibility and more widespread heatwave conditions cannot be ruled out in the last few days of July. It only takes one low to stall and sink south in the Atlantic like on the GFS and we get roasted. It might or might not happen but to dismiss it entirely looks unwise at the moment and frankly it more brought on about desire than the evidence we have in front of us. As for the ECM, sums up the metoffice thoughts with the East hot next week and the west a little cooler and fresher with showers (There would likely be some kind of dividing line where some thunderstorms could break out). Week 2 suggests again that high pressure could begin to dominate more widely but again that is too far away to make a judgement call. ECM ens to day 10 Inconclusive in terms of whether the ridge or trough will dominate, a sort of in between where the east is warmest and the west has more of an Atlantic influence though again nowhere would be cool under this set up unless you get very unlucky under a frontal system.
  4. A tougher call for week 2, some serious ensemble evidence to suggest that a major heatwave will breakout over a large part of Europe, the UK is right on the edge so we could see no real heat (though I suspect conditions will still remain above average and showery), a major heatwave which could be of July 2006 or even August 2003 proportions, or glanicing blows with temperatures still likely to reach higher than what we have currently seen. ECM ens Tough call longer term here though the further south east you go, the better chance of seeing hot conditions prevail. GFS 12z, jeez that 37C is right over me, I really don't want my first child to potentially be born on the hottest day ever recorded in the UK!! Highly improbable, but not impossible given the charts above, plenty of wiggle room to shift the the ridge into a furnace position, or of course leave us rather wet.
  5. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    A little brighter during this afternoon compared to yesterday but still a lot of cloud. The temperature is still a decent 25c with barely any breeze at all.
  6. A few posts have been removed this morning. Can we please avoid the name calling and insults please and stick to moaning about the model output. Thank you.
  7. Day 6 charts UKMO/GFS The UKMO gets the ridge fully across the UK, the GFS seems to have a more organised area of low heights to our north which pushes down on the ridge somewhat though for many the weather is fine and very warm and thisrun does seem to have a little more amplification so more of a ridge might appear later on to our east.
  8. Pretty decent from the ECM with high pressure building across the UK again, a very potent area of tropical maritime air to our west which would help if skies are clear to breach the 30C mark yet again. The ECM looks pretty similar to this mornings run with another low trying to dig southwards in the Atlantic.
  9. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    The high cloud from the cold front reached here around 2ish so that has probably prevented 30C being reached. Still it is 28C and holding steady with some clearer breaks moving in from the west. So for the whole breakdown thing, looking at the temperature predictions this week will probably be the warmest/hottest of the year so far (Most of the hot days strangely have occured over the weekends). Last week highs (Mon - Fri) - 26C,22C, 22C, 24C, 26C This week - 28C(maybe higher), 25C, 26C, 29C, 28C (based on model output). I suspect places further east such as Norwich would see an even bigger extreme with regards to this week being warmer than most of the summer so far.
  10. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    29c reached across a large part of East Anglia now including places that have missed out on a lot of the heat. It actually feels nicer than last Sunday with lower humidity.
  11. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    Arpege predicted temperatures for the next few days Tuesday is probably going to be the coolest day of the week and even then 25C looks possible. The only real hope for rain is that the temperatures are high enough to help develop some potent showers. The extended outlook doesn't bode well for those wanting rain either with pressure set to remain high over our part of the world and for those who have suffered with the low cloud from the north sea could very well see their fortunes improve as winds from the south west look like they will start to prevail.
  12. General ensemble guidance ECM GFS It looks like we are seeing signs off the well signposted transition towards an Atlantic trough and Euro/Scandinavian ridge set up with the UK close to the boundary with the jet starting to align more SW/NE across the north of the UK. The GEFs hold a pattern similar to the day 10 charts all of the way out to day 16 so probably a NW/SE split with the north west seeing changeable conditions with near normal temperatures whilst the south east in particular looks to remain quite dry and pretty warm with always the chance of glancing blows of heat from the south. Given this coming week is supposed to be cooler and more unsettled, I must admit that I am feeling this is being a little too overplayed given that temperatures could reach the mid twenties on any day this coming week in the south and rainfall looks limited to showers so many will probably see no rain whatsoever.
  13. Captain Shortwave

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    Missed out on the heat yesterday as i am down in south essex again where there was a breeze off the Thames but it still reached 25c compared to 28c at home though. 30/31c possible today and tomorrow across inland parts of East Anglia with a gentle SW wind and mostly clear skies. To be honest this week still looks decent with good sunny spells and only a couple of showers with temperatures only falling to the mid-twenties.
  14. The ECM and UKMO both want to drift a shallow low close to the south of the UK at the end of this coming week. This would probably increase the risk of thundery downpours. Otherwise by next weekend it looks like we will see pressure build across the UK again. So fingers crossed that many will at least see a little bit of rain over the next few days.
  15. Oddly enough next week will probably be warmer for many of us down here as we have lost that NE wind. Looking at the models i think southern areas could be struggling with any rain with reliance of showers which will probably be rather scattered as pressure never really falls that much. Tuesday looks the best bet but it looks like high pressure will probably ridge in enough to squeeze out shower activity for many.