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East_England_Stormchaser91

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East_England_Stormchaser91 last won the day on May 18 2016

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    Male
  • Location
    Peterborough, N Cambridgeshire
  • Interests
    Spanish Plumes, Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow, anything else that is extreme!
  • Weather Preferences
    Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy

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  1. Whilst I’m sure the GFS will change its tune as we go on, I can’t remember such warm air appearing from the east, other than perhaps 2003, that started off as a huge, slack generally easterly flow continent wide, with all the hot air piling up over W Europe. As said previously, North Sea coasts would be pretty dismal, but out west, it would be a complete stark contrast with 30c perhaps in spots such as Blackpool, Liverpool, W Scotland and SW England. UKMO is simply stunning, and more within the reliable timeframe too. So I’m not too worried about the 12z, let’s just watch it unfold day by day and relax!
  2. Agreed it is the most unreliable, but it doesn’t mean to say it’s entirely impossible, although we all know the chances are extremely remote. Under the right circumstances however, I really do believe we can do it. Uppers will ideally need to be 22+c between mid July and mid August, an uninterrupted slack flow from S’ern Spain, lasting for a few days. Nevertheless every model and forecaster at some point have had some big blunders, take the met office on a few occasions, with the unforgettable 2007 barbecue summer! And also past tornadic storm setup days I.e 28th July 2005 and 28th June 2012, which the met office only went as far as describing these forecasted showers on these exceptional days as heavy thundery showers! A bit of an understatement given the severity and danger to life the storms on these days posed. In a nutshell, everyone and everything can have their ‘crap’ days!
  3. Would be good elevated activity to my eye from that. However, if we still have the hot uppers and the jet stream starts to ride over them, then that would create the recipe for the real severe potential, prolonging the storms, becoming organised and of course, supercell potential.
  4. I kid you not, 1 July 2015, this belittled model actually called the 37c from day one! despite the main 3 deviating on the outcome up to the event. The NAVGEM stuck to its guns.
  5. This is beyond stunning, all across the board as far up as the outer Hebrides seeing mid to high twenties! And with the World Cup on, this is seriously looking very 2006-Esque! To top it off, most models actually reload the heat further into the latter time frames! I think we could be seeing our first 30c of the year next week that’s for sure, how high will the temperature get after that will be the next question! If it ends like the 12z run however, parts of the south could see some serious storms, but perhaps a continuation of the heat, something that happened often during the 90’s. Exciting and very uplifting indeed.
  6. August 1997, I have faint memories of. End of May 1999/ beginning of June 1999 and July 3rd 1999 (what a year that was) 4/5/6 July 2001 saw a very impressive outbreak of severe storms and a MCS over SW England and Wales. July 30th 2002, probably the most noteworthy day of that year. Peterborough and St Ives (Cambs) got flooded at about lunchtime and a series of severe storms tracked up central and Eastern England, plus with overnight lightning on the night that followed. The commonwealth games at Manchester we’re on at the time, and will always be used as a cross reference for that severe day in this part of the world. August 2004 was overall a very decent month, of course remembering the awful floods of boscastle on the 16th. June 28th 2005 we had a very impressive MCS track north, then August 31st 2005 delivered a spectacular lightning storm here, still to this day some of the most frequent lightning I’ve ever seen. July 2006 has impressive storms that broke down the stifling heat. 2007-12 in a nutshell we’re all non events, failure after failure with plumes seeming to avoid here at all costs, infamous El Gordo being of note. 28th June 2012 was a revival I suppose, despite not seeing anything here. 3/4th July 2015 here was the most impressive for a decade, and delivered a spectacular lightning fest. 27th August 2016 (I missed) but it looked awesome in Peterborough into Lincs and heard all about it!
  7. East_England_Stormchaser91

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Just been through some torrential rain near kings Lynn, roads becoming flooded!
  8. East_England_Stormchaser91

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    Not too sure. Perhaps later on, if those developments further south ever make it. In fact they are barely moving at all..!! We’d have a greater chance if something developed nearby.
  9. Not all the time. 64,000 strikes recorded on 28th June 2012 came from mainly surfaced based storms.
  10. Sat24 showing all the clear slots the other side of the channel and over the Low Countries. Think it’s going to be one of them days watching in envy over the other side of the water.
  11. Unless cloud has completely cleared elsewhere, this isn’t looking too promising if I do say so. Activity was meant to have got firing off by now, but not even a cintilla of any real development at all. Belgium and Holland as usual getting in on the action, plus using up and gobbling up the rocket fuel. This cloud needs to be getting a move on, otherwise it may be too little too late for the sun to really get to work, resulting in the cap not being broken.. I’ve seen this way too many times before.
  12. Referring and correcting to my earlier post, that in the channel is nowhere near a MCS by the way, and never was! A MCS would or have been throwing out tonnes of lightning and miles bigger. The term is used way to often nowadays, when really referring to a multicell storm at best. This is what a proper MCS looks like, just to bring things down onto a real level!
  13. Wish that MCS was as active as what our fellow stormchasers are probably witnessing right now in Oklahoma/Kansas, my word it’s chucking out a serious amount of lightning!
  14. Have a look on YouTube of the storms on 28th June 2012
  15. BOOM!!! Oh yesss!
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