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CanadaAl

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Everything posted by CanadaAl

  1. CanadaAl
    Incredible radar over East Anglia!
  2. CanadaAl
    Encouraging to see the GFS op being a potential mild outlier
  3. CanadaAl
    This is exactly it and look at the bigger picture, We've had two exceptional SSWs (even resulting in the Japanese climate centre adjusting their graph axis) I think once the colds in, It will be here for a good while
  4. CanadaAl
    I still think it's too early. They won't really know until Weds/Thurs once the cold is entrenched. Even if there's rain, it would likely turn back to snow as the low tracked east.I think the models will really struggle with this for the days to come
  5. CanadaAl
    As some have already pointed out, It wouldn't seem likely for this low to track much further north as this air will be frigid and likely keep it in the channel. Plus with surface cold I still agree unless you're in the far south west, you'd see a significant amount of snow. Either way Monday-Friday look incredible
  6. CanadaAl
    Notice that low disappears in this run on the GFS, like the UKMO. I think this would result in lower snow chances but a more direct colder feed. (-14 uppers in east anglia). Very interesting!
  7. CanadaAl
    Also, the days fell on the same dates in 1962. An omen pehaps? lol Amazing analysis from @Bring Back1962-63!
  8. CanadaAl
    Yeah, I more mean the nature of how it'll bump against the cold air. Yes it could be marginal also but I think there could be a few surprises in store. Also, steve mentioned the low would likely correct south (I'm not sure if that was tongue in cheek) but he knows his stuff.
  9. CanadaAl
    Friday looks like we could see some transitional snow and then nothing really terribly mild in the next 7 days. lows crossing over taking w to e track and northerlies on the back ends. Going to make for interesting viewing!
  10. CanadaAl
    Yeah they're trying to look for deep easterlies and prolonged cold which isn't there but plenty to get excited about in the short term. They flip so much that an easterly could appear 5 days out in the middle of Jan. Just doesn't seem worth getting upset over.
  11. CanadaAl
    Here in NW essex, 5CM at least and still throwing it down. Looks like we got the sweet spot according to Wundermap. No rain to start, just snow since 7:55. Definitely can't see why there's doom and gloom on the MOD thread. Two pretty decent shots of snow (10th and today) and December isn't even over.
  12. CanadaAl
    Here in NW essex, 5CM at least and still throwing it down. Looks like we got the sweet spot according to Wundermap. No rain to start, just snow since 7:55. Definitely can't see why there's doom and gloom on the MOD thread. Two pretty decent shots of snow (10th and today) and December isn't even over.
  13. CanadaAl
    True to GFS's unpredictable nature, after being a cold outlier for the 12Z, The 18Z appears a milder outlier in the 18Z ensembles.
  14. CanadaAl
    Yeah it won't be there but it's good to see some variation in the runs. It almost seemed like it wasn't going to let go of that mild outcome
  15. CanadaAl
    Yeah doesn't look too optimistic. Best chance (going by this run's output) would be high over the UK and Atlantic going north and some amplification. Don't fancy having uncle Bartlett over for Christmas this year...
  16. CanadaAl
    Seeing the transfer of vortex from Siberian side to Canadian side at 240H, Not really what we want to see but still very much in FI. Lots of great amplification in the short/medium range.
  17. CanadaAl
    I believe the air is only lifted and warmed when coming from the SW (I live right by the rockies, they call them 'Chinooks') When arctic outbursts arrive from the north, the air is not really moderated until it reaches Wyoming/Colorado)
  18. CanadaAl
    Yeah I think high pressure becoming the form horse but probably sitting closer to the UK. Not overly mild at least for the south anyways, fog and frost with highs around 5/6 (2/3 under fog patches)
  19. CanadaAl
    Back in the UK for xmas and new years on Friday, hoping there's a little bit of snow left!
  20. CanadaAl
    0Z GFS seems to have Atlantic powering through but not as strongly as the 18Z. Hints at high building to the N/NE but quickly snuffed out by the atlantic at 200H. Seems they're overegging these lows. Saw a 935mbar low just off greenland. seems unlikely. However if that 935mbar low helps some WAA west of the UK, that could be interesting. Going to make for an interesting week of model watching
  21. CanadaAl
    Yeah GP, Tamara and others touched on this when they mentioned about moving into a new MJO phase. The models will continue to make a dogs dinner of it until at least mid next week.
  22. CanadaAl
    Ventusky (ICON Model) shows +2 by 8AM, back to 0 by 9AM. Any rain will be short lived
  23. CanadaAl
    I think it'll come back around 9/10AM. Supposed to turn back to snow later on
  24. CanadaAl
    Looks like sleet in chelmsford. Doesn't look great for coastal areas
  25. CanadaAl
    If anyone is curious, here's wundermap with radar and you there's some webcams too! https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
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