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CanadaAl

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Everything posted by CanadaAl

  1. Unfortunately too much power in the Atlantic in this run to allow the block to build and settle in Scandinavia. Could very well flip in the next run though.
  2. Looks a little bleak but I have to say EC has been tipping to zonal a lot lately and hasn't always been right
  3. Crossing fingers that this trend continues but just too far out right now. Still possible though
  4. You read my mind nick, I was thinking the same thing. I remember it only being picked up 5 or so days before
  5. I'd still say there's hope. Strat warmings seem a consistent trend
  6. I think if you read between the lines a bit, it's looking like a good run, more hints at some sort of MLB (Central Europe/Scandinavia) and looks like the beginning of an SSW right at the end. Let's wait and see!
  7. Yes it's certainly looking like north america is getting a big bite of the cherry but also with sniffing of a Scandi high in the FI, it's far away but appears to be appearing more frequently. Could be a trend, could not. I expect my locale to be going right into the freezer that first week of dec
  8. Back looking at the GFS 18z, more improvements with the elongating low and this new low springing up across the north sea keeping things in a north-easterly. and the sniff of scandi blocking in FI is encouraging
  9. what a complete flip in fortunes past 240. Atlantic knocking but scandi ridge trying to form. Safe to say it doesn't have a bloody clue what's going on.
  10. I assume it's short term and the evolution of the low next week that caught peoples attention.
  11. They don't call it the "MAD" thread for nothing... Slight downgrades depending how you look at it but with this much uncertainty only 5 days out, it could still go either way
  12. Looks to be less low pressure west of Greenland in this run. Also noticing it having a hard time modeling the track of that low in the channel. Could be the difference of rain to snow in some areas. Not focusing on much after t+100 at this point in time. So much variation between each run, not worth worrying.
  13. Unfortunately one of the Caveats of November blocking is usually a pretty pent up Vortex especially in the Canadian sector. Scandi/Icelandic highs are more likely to hold than Greenland highs it seems. Obviously there are exceptions.
  14. You're giving me flashbacks! All because of a tiny shortwave. Early December. 5th if i recall
  15. We would normally have given our right foot for such synoptics so early on. People always getting hung up on run to run.
  16. I expect their supervisors told them to downplay it a bit to avoid the inevitable mass bread and milk buying that would ensue. Especially looking at the 18z! Yes the GFS outcomes may be a little extreme but it's safe to say the likelihood of prolonged cold (dare i say.. close to Nov 2010) is certainly on the table.
  17. Low res will do that. After 240 everything gets watered down.
  18. Wow incredible over on the Scotland thread. Proper Canadian style blizzards. wild.
  19. Definitely lowestoft and canvey are the big winners tonight. Thanks for the pictures! Looks like showers are losing their energy quickly after moving inland. Perhaps they'll go further inland throughout the day on Tuesday. I think Wednesday could be better for more inland parts as winds swing to an ESE direction.
  20. To be honest I still think it's an upgrade to what we've been seeing in the last couple of days with the low being sent up across the uk and further north. We're starting to see the GFS model the cold pool and how it is slowing down the low and shallowing it. Don't get me wrong, an easterly trajectory would be far more favourable but the 0c isotherm only tracks inland briefly before being pushed south again on Saturday. Maybe i'm in denial but i don't think the fat lady has sung yet. I think late weds/thurs would be time to call it. I'm seeing echos of Jan 2013 happening. Low was modeled to send southerlies but with only 96 hours ahead, the negative tilt was picked up and there was a big snow event and the cold won (20 January 2013). I've added the models for comparison: Left: 0z, 16th January, Right 0z 20th January. Maybe not the best example but it shows how the models struggle with cold pools. Below is the diagram for the clusters for the 0z GFS (Cambridge). So far the op is on a milder track compared to the other members
  21. keeping it a mainly snow event. From what i'm aware of, the snow won't turn to rain unless the 0C line crosses over
  22. Excuse the scribbles but this is my rough idea of how things will pan out by Thursday. I think the streamer set up will really set up those in the estury area but areas further north and west may struggle to get close to 5cm. In November 2010 where I lived (NW essex) there was barely 5cm but down closer to Chelmsford it was near a foot. Don’t expect anything near to that extreme but the pattern seems similar
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