CanadaAl
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks like 22 Dec onwards could well get interesting. Best chances for anything prolonged seem after New Year. That seems to be the general idea -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
You're right, we'd be looking at 5 day of Atlantic max before mid Atlantic blocking primes itself for the big day. Certainly a lot of tasty synoptics, even if this easterly doesn't deliver. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And the Atlantic never truly wins even at T156. Here i was about to right off the scandi high. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'll say though, much better at 132, almost primed for an undercut. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Deleted -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm also wondering if it's folks are focusing on near-term evolution as apposed to later on. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well it's for midnight on Saturday the 15th. Chances are the south would have started warming up. 12 hours earlier and it's probably looking like bigger totals in the south, -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We really won't know until that block sets up shop. Could be 48hrs out before the models really have it pinned. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Very nice! Just a few corrections west and most of the UK could be in for the fun -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Wouldn't take much for those -4/-6 uppers to get over East Anglia and it could well be game on for a time -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Unfortunately one of the caveats of the high being too weak to allow the low to slide underneath but still too strong to allow it through. Let's just be thankful its not stuck over the UK -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
More slight upgrades on 0Z. Better angle on the low and better geopotential heights over scandi. Will be a slow road but a turnaround could still happen. Edit: Also more encouraging to see higher thicknesses over Greenland once those Lows slowly get a move on. Much more promising than a couple days back. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's all about positioning. Last thing anyone wants is stalling lows flooding the UK. If they have nowhere to go it's not good news. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
You're right, I was looking at the Atlantic low but yes there's an eastern correction on the Scandi High. Not great. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Slight west correction at T102. Fingers crossed the GFS is on a bender to remember at the pub tonight! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm glad Walden could be in for some of the action if that chart comes off. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
i'm still hoping there's a Christmas miracle last week of December. Wishful thinking though... -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm just thankful it's not heading straight for ireland/scotland. Would cause all sorts of damage. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
reminds me of 14/15 and 17/18. NW to SE aligned jet. Could be worse -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Someone get Michael Fish in here! lol -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Interesting viewing.. I'm hoping for that low to slide SE and the High to start retrogressing W. One can hope -
I believe two SSWs happened in 2013, 2010 and 2009 I think. It's unusual but does happen
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It was six years ago today since "That ECM" Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Quite spectacular uppers really. I'm landing at Heathrow on the morning of the 14th, Could make it quite interesting if there's a snowfest waiting for me -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm fairly sure that is SSW territory. I was told -8 or above to classify as SSW. shame its 384 hours out!