CanadaAl
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Posts posted by CanadaAl
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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
No denying todays trends aren't favourable but I'll wait until the overnight runs to comment - Still some members going for prolonging the cold & I suspect there will be a few more shifts in outputs to come as the low is yet to be fully resolved.
Frustrating for sure, but not entirely over yet.
Depends really, the GFS is looking encouraging with the Euro/Scandi heights building towards the end. Yes it's FI and will change but this is not the first run to suggest this outcome.
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I wish you all could see the hefty flakes falling out the window. 5cm tonight with -20 expected tomorrow.
ahem..
back to the models:
As we watch the rollout of the GFS 0z, the 18z is showing promising signs of holding on to the initial block with more flip-flops expected I'm not banking on calling anything beyond thurs/fri at this stage.
Same time period on the 18z/12z/6z just to show how haywire it is.
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1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:
Evening all,Excellent ECM 12z along with hopefully a prolonged cold /very cold further outlook,going to be a big shock to the system with temperatures heading lower as the week progresses.Will be keeping a close eye on hpa temperatures to allow for showers to turn more wintery.
Agreed. I also think MetOffice website forecasts will start to fall in line which will come as a bit of a surprise to some. With these charts i fail to see how it would be 7 in London on Sunday.
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21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
The gfs operational is on its own this morning.
The ukmo, parallel and GEM all make more of the low to our South and put us in a southeasterly flow rather than East. Granted ukmo uppers still ok, just.The evolution remains messy but an Easterly from Russia/ Siberia is not on the cards right now (which is what 2010 was)
Over to ECM in an hour!
Agreed. This is what stuck out to me too. Flow coming from Italy rather than Scandi. But impressive charts all the same. Especially this early on in the season.
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20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I was wondering why no one's posted any ensembles yet today. Ah, here we have it: little support for a major late-run cooldown. That said, the operational and control runs are also the two least perturbed, which would give them a tad more reliability than the others?
Time to write off winter? On the 27th of December?!
Yeah, you only have to look at the US and Canada to see a raging polar vortex at play. Albeit not as strong as 13/14 but it's pretty close. Some record cold in the west and heat in the southeast results in a super charged Jet. So it's not surprising it's going to get so mild.
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That is one raging PV! even the persistant feature of the last few years, the aleutian/NE Pacific ridge is nowhere to be seen.
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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
Here we are again at the end of another December with nothing of note showing in the models from the perspective of a proper cold spell as we move into January. If things do not begin to improve soon we could be looking at yet another poor winter from a cold perspective and that is with solar minimum and a fairly neutral ENSO state. I know that background signals like high solar activity, a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO are generally not conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK, but in a year where these background signals are not poor in this way, if we cannot see something decent in cold winter conditions in the UK, then we have to question if we can ever see winters like 2009-10 ever again, or ever again see the sort of severe spells like December 2010, or see even the cold spells like we had in the 2012-13 winter ever again.
I wouldn't get too downtrodden. There will likely be a string of cold winters again in the next years just as they were in 2009-2012. I mean just look back at 1895-1928. It probably seemed cold winters wouldn't return but they did. Global warming will change things but not as dramatically over the next few years.
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Well tickle me silly.. what do we have here
It's not over yet folks
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Did someone say garden path?
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8 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Gfs consistent asever
It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least
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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Quite a snowy and cold 18z into FI...
Probably different in the morning ...
I've noticed a garden path emerging from the 11 onwards. Even a scandi high a couple runs back
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6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Yup, a consequence of the jet moving north -
NW Scotland looks in the firing line over the coming week or two..(If GFS is to be believed).
Firstly, Merry Christmas to all perusing the forums this evening...
Secondly, It is disappointing seeing those height rises further south from a cold seekers perspective but it is so desperately needed. Ideally a high sat over the UK would be even better. Eyes down for the 18z...
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Amazing to see this ridge building only a few days out now where we didn't before. beyond 25/26 is anyone's guess.
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Definitely been a while since this type of huge disagreement. ECM not looking to back down so let's hope GFS falls into line. Would be a very nice frosty christmas.
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Leaving from the UK tonight. Leaving behind a good 10cm snow here in Calgary. On the plus side I guess it'll be much warmer in the UK. Shorts, maybe?!
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13 minutes ago, Mucka said:
GEM looking excellent this morning. A shame it is one of the lesser models.It is probably closer than GFS though.
What we really need is ECM to follow up and keep the trend going.
the GEM is a real gem it has to be said. Ever the optimist lol
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possible WAA west of UK as we head into low res...
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
GFS T192, looks like a slider, but under what??!
There's no block there! T850s disappointing at this point:
But that could change, the architect of all of this is the jet stream:
Unusually far south if that strong...expect the unexpected from now on...
I'm taking anything past Dec 15 with an enormous barrel of salt at this point. It makes for entertaining viewing at least
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1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
The UKMO this evening looks positive, just need to nudge the low heights further South on t144 and we're in business in UK as a whole and not just Scotland.
Yes, It's also sending that low SE instead of E on friday (96H) which could bring some brief cooler air and maybe snow even to lower levels on it's back edge.
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Look at those thicknesses. Much less purple to go around
0Z
18Z
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40 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
Would that be this winter, only 8 days old, with another 82 days to go? Which has already delivered a lovely cold start to December with widespread frosts for many, and an Atlantic storm now in the western approaches? Some have been reporting hail and thunder in the south west today as well. Goodness me, hasn't this been a promising start to the season? No reason to lose heart so soon, my friend, just because we're not all buried in snow - yet. Every year I see the best winter weather conditions develop almost overnight from nothing in the 5-7 day period so we should all keep looking because the next great blizzard may only be just around the corner!
Thank you. Safe to say the models are making a hash of anything past the 14th. Some building heights, some not. What appears to be a weakening PV over greenland. It's still game on. Plenty to keep positive about.
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So we've been doing this road before haven't we.. But it's interesting to see how thicknesses are lifting near the UK around 17/18. Both on ECM and GFS.
I don't know if others have been following the CFS 9 Months but theres been a consistent pattern of settled and colder conditions around Christmas and beyond (Those that watch GavWeatherVids xmas updates will know what I mean). Could GFS be picking up on something past 300h? It's unlikely given how things are but interesting nevertheless. Never a dull moment
CFS for Christmas Day
ECM 240 - Note the lighter blues and less purples near Greenland:
GFS 348 - Height rises N+E
Interested to hear peoples thoughts...
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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:
I would give it another run Steve since it at least sees the mini ridge if not the disruption.
As crewe says all those many years of experience had the forum hold on for UKMO but we have seen further twists as well just as people threw towel in and we could still eek out some cold after the trough moves through, just not the dream charts that deep down we probably knew were dreams.
I agree. I'm waiting until Sun/Mon to see how this evolves. Sure it could be that the cold snap gets snuffed out but we shall see...
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
18z a little less amplified than the 12z which was a little less amplified than the crazy 06z
this run probably close to the middle of the envelope at day 6
Exactly. Bringing us back down to earth a bit lol
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Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep. Insane snowfall intensity over the midlands and heavy rain for the E and SE.