CanadaAl
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I wish you all could see the hefty flakes falling out the window. 5cm tonight with -20 expected tomorrow. ahem.. back to the models: As we watch the rollout of the GFS 0z, the 18z is showing promising signs of holding on to the initial block with more flip-flops expected I'm not banking on calling anything beyond thurs/fri at this stage. Same time period on the 18z/12z/6z just to show how haywire it is.
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
CanadaAl replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed. I also think MetOffice website forecasts will start to fall in line which will come as a bit of a surprise to some. With these charts i fail to see how it would be 7 in London on Sunday. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
CanadaAl replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed. This is what stuck out to me too. Flow coming from Italy rather than Scandi. But impressive charts all the same. Especially this early on in the season. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah, you only have to look at the US and Canada to see a raging polar vortex at play. Albeit not as strong as 13/14 but it's pretty close. Some record cold in the west and heat in the southeast results in a super charged Jet. So it's not surprising it's going to get so mild. -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is one raging PV! even the persistant feature of the last few years, the aleutian/NE Pacific ridge is nowhere to be seen. -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't get too downtrodden. There will likely be a string of cold winters again in the next years just as they were in 2009-2012. I mean just look back at 1895-1928. It probably seemed cold winters wouldn't return but they did. Global warming will change things but not as dramatically over the next few years. -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've noticed a garden path emerging from the 11 onwards. Even a scandi high a couple runs back -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Firstly, Merry Christmas to all perusing the forums this evening... Secondly, It is disappointing seeing those height rises further south from a cold seekers perspective but it is so desperately needed. Ideally a high sat over the UK would be even better. Eyes down for the 18z... -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Amazing to see this ridge building only a few days out now where we didn't before. beyond 25/26 is anyone's guess. -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
CanadaAl replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely been a while since this type of huge disagreement. ECM not looking to back down so let's hope GFS falls into line. Would be a very nice frosty christmas. -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
CanadaAl replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Leaving from the UK tonight. Leaving behind a good 10cm snow here in Calgary. On the plus side I guess it'll be much warmer in the UK. Shorts, maybe?! -
So we've been doing this road before haven't we.. But it's interesting to see how thicknesses are lifting near the UK around 17/18. Both on ECM and GFS. I don't know if others have been following the CFS 9 Months but theres been a consistent pattern of settled and colder conditions around Christmas and beyond (Those that watch GavWeatherVids xmas updates will know what I mean). Could GFS be picking up on something past 300h? It's unlikely given how things are but interesting nevertheless. Never a dull moment CFS for Christmas Day ECM 240 - Note the lighter blues and less purples near Greenland: GFS 348 - Height rises N+E Interested to hear peoples thoughts...