snowstorm445
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Posts posted by snowstorm445
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Yeah the Icon outcome is pretty favourable to us here in the Low Countries. Nearly 24 hours of snow by the looks of it! Seems odd that it wouldn't lead to more streamers heading into Southern England as well with those tight isobars.
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Plenty of snow across Ireland for Friday on the latest GFS and UKMO runs, the former bringing in a thaw quicker though it has to be said.
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1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:
Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, hihers uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out.
True that actually, was just looking at the pressure charts. Also very cold uppers still holding on in most across the northern half of the British Isles.
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GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z
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ICON at the end seems to have a battleground type scenario forming with the Azores low southerlies running up against northeasterlies moving in. This is towards Sunday mind. The low on Friday seems to be further south meaning cold(er) uppers for longer over Southern England.
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14 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:
The first spell of dec 2010 covered Waterford in snow for 2 weeks as I worked there but the second saw only a dusting as flow was from the north then. West Cork I am sure did well in the second spell but maybe not so much for east Cork
If I remember correctly bits of County Waterford (around Dungarvan) saw very little snow at all, especially later on (the Comeragh Mountains probably shielded them). Also while West Cork did see a bit of snow (even relations of mine down on the usually very mild Beara Peninsula got a good few inches if I recall), the extreme south coast (around Kinsale) was also snowless I think.
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Scandi High in late FI, bringing -8 uppers across the UK and Ireland
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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:
Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.
Snow over England north of the M4 corridor and Northern Ireland. Rain for Southern England and Southern Ireland.
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Very much expecting downgrades at this stage, obviously you imagine that you will be wrong eventually but after six years of waiting for even the most watered down snowy spell you know the same thing will happen every "winter". Maybe wet snow showers on a few days if we're lucky, lying snow maybe for an hour or two even!
Particularly grating for me as having been abroad (mostly) for the snowier winters of the late 2000s, I fully expected to see something similar when I moved back home in 2011. How wrong I was, nothing since then.
We've obviously witnessed a real paradigm shift in winter climate. Snowy winters by and large will clearly be things of the past.
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GFS certainly remains very chilly towards the end of the run, although the Synoptics are a bit of a mess with a very weak Greenland high setting up alongside the Azores high.
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Both the GFS and UKMO are good in the short to medium term but are consistent with the High sinking southwards, GFS especially so.
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High pressure sinks over British Isles in the ECM this morning, bit of a change from yesterday’s runs.
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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.
Thats a rather sad and lonely looking low over the Azores lol.
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6 minutes ago, warrenb said:
Different times, mine was for 120-144, Chino was later in the run. But the damage has been done by then
"Damage" is a tiny bit over the top. Synoptics are still great, a lack of immediate northeasterlies doesn't make the run a disaster. We'll see where this takes us.
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20 minute heavy snow shower just finished here in Cork.
Didn't stick though.
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Easterly fails to really even get started on the GFS. Disappointing run overall. We shall see how this progresses tomorrow.
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I have to say it is eerily reminiscent of "that" infamous ECM (early December 2012). In case anyone needs reminding:
Still, the background signals are there, and we have much to be hopeful about. Lets hope the GFS and other models wake up and smell the coffee.
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Even if the 6z isn't as good for our part of the world as the previous run, the story is the same regarding the PV.
(http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014110706/gfsnh-0-192.png?6?6)
Completely in tatters, above average heights over the North Pole. Amazing stuff for this time of year.
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my pet spider said something about cold
Ah, so that's where Maddan gets his forecasts from...
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2011. Horrible year. Apart from some warm(ish) weather in April, nothing really noteworthy. Very mild end to winter, a washout of a summer, and an extremely boring Autumn; ridiculously mild right into November, with non-stop rain (although not particularly windy IIRC). Ramped up zonal weather in December, with some wet snow events but hardly noteworthy compared to the year before.
Overall very disappointing, especially with regards to winter.
2012 wasn't great, but some serious flooding in Cork in late June. I can recall the end of May being quite warm as well. A much more seasonal Autumn IMO. The highlight of the year was probably the hysteria following "THAT" ECM.
2013 was the best with regard to recent years. Good all-round. Some snowy days that continued into March, very chilly Spring, exceptionally warm weather during July, and some serious windstorms towards the end of the year (which I suppose made up for the lack of cold).
2014, so far has been quite good. Aside from the lack of any serious cold, the summer was amazing (even August wasn't that bad around here). Decent Indian Summer during September (as opposed to the mild muck "Indian Summer" during 2011).
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CFS is just for fun....Gavins own words
So before all you coldies start having panic attacks this was from his own 6 months CFS forecast from last yearJan 2014 was down for a full on Northeasterly & Snow and we all know what happen last WInter.... The very opposite
Capture.JPG So regarding Gavin's lastest CFS video......Let's hope the complete opposite happens this year Agreed. I can distinctly remember Northern blocking being written all over the CFS this time last year, and it obviously never materialised. Why people pay it any heed when it comes to actual long-range forecasting is a mystery to me. Proof if any more was needed that attempts at forecasting weather accurately months in advance are fairly pointless.
"OMG, CFS forecasts mild winter in October, winter's over!"
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Nice summer here overall. Can't remember every single day's weather in detail, but overall it was generally very pleasant and dry, if a little hazy and dull at the start. Even into August there were a good few sunny days, although noticeably cooler than July. The last few days have been dull but still dry and rather warm.
Really hoping for a decent winter this year. 2012-2013 wasn't that bad (March was a good month for cold weather) but last winter was quite poor (one day of lying snow with about 3 days of falling snow in total, although it was mostly through cold zonal events, nothing exceptionally cold). Even if this winter was average, a decent week-long cold spell would be great. Northern blocking for several weeks would be even greater.
I understand the long-term signals seem to point to something more conducive to colder weather, but my gut tells me that it will be average. There seems to be some correlation between warm summers and mild and wet winters IMO, whereas many of the recent cold winters AFAIK were preceded by cool and wet summers. Of course my gut also made me believe that 2011-12 would be a cold winter as well, and that certainly wasn't the case! We can only really trust the reliable timeframe at the end of the day.
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Both the Euro4 and GFS suggest wintry showers tomorrow night into Saturday for most of Ireland, especially on higher ground in the North and East where it will be coldest. Dew points shouldn't be a problem, and temperatures are expected to dip to freezing in most parts:
Dew points:
Expect accumulations on higher ground, but snow itself should reach most low-lying areas, mainly after midnight:
This will be a very marginal event, btw, so don't be too disappointed if it falls as rain. I can't see many areas near coasts getting much in the way of snow, particularly here in the south, and in the west.
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A couple of wet snow showers last weekend, some of them quite heavy, none of it lying though. Apart from that, only a bit of sleety weather around late November/December (I think?).
Last year was quite good, we had a number of snowy mornings from January through to March, some of which accumulated to a few cms. The year before that was probably worse than this one, nothing but some brief wet snow in December.
Some snow is forecast here on Friday night into Saturday. Its likely to be very marginal, obviously, but any snow is better than none!
Didn't stick though.
So before all you coldies start having panic attacks this was from his own 6 months CFS forecast from last year
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yeah just seems true to form for this part of the world. We manage to squeeze out a week of rare below average temperatures and frosty weather and we're immediately punished with the mildest of mild synoptics, probably for weeks on end.