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    Severe weather; particular interest in convective weather.

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  1. Looking forward to the Perseids meteor shower - well the peak anyway as we're already within the period where we can see them. Have already spotted a few meteors when the night skies have been clear recently.
  2. A misuse of the word irony, and the smiley faces are back. We have a fool in our midst.
  3. Ah, here they are.. Right on cue..
  4. Looks like the silence has been broken... They are well and truly here now. Blood hasn't dried yet either...
  5. A deathly silence from the usual suspects... Just watched a video of the shooting - absolutely terrifying.
  6. Can't seem to open more than one GFS chart at a time (usually view two side by side). No biggie, but just thought I'd make you aware. Ah, they do open but underneath one another as opposed to two side by side...
  7. 27C; dewpoint 18C currently. Phew! Ready for potential 35C tomorrow lol. 

  8. Period still covered with uncertainty at this range, naturally, but some quick thoughts having glanced at latest outputs. Tuesday likely to be storm-free with very warm temperatures (perhaps hot toward the south-east) with long draw southerly to south-easterly flow off the continent. Plenty of CAPE showing on GFS, however strong, amplified continental ridge and dry profile aloft means likely to be very little in the way of deep convective activity, save for a very low likelihood of isolated break outs over high elevation over north and west UK. Tues night and into early Weds sees 500
  9. Yep, not surprised GFS modeling has converged with ECM/UKM on a potentially stormy outlook Tues/Weds - euros always leading Already considering booking a day off for this one, should current outputs hold to Monday. Moisture in abundance, plenty of instability, and an adequate shear profile would ensure good storm development/low-end severe convective episode. Still a little too far out though, but, finally, something in NWP outputs to get interested about.
  10. Yes, nice outlook for Tues/Weds on ECM/UKM where we see a negatively-tilted upper trough digging south to the west of Iberia, with an amplified stout upper ridge building over southern/central continent. At the surface, low pressure is modeled to approach from S/SW drawing up an increasingly warm, moist and potentially unstable air mass on the eastern flank. GFS different with the trough not getting as far south, and upper pattern generally not as amplified as euro models. More inspiring that it's the ECM/UKM showing the favourable synoptics and not the GFS in isolation, as is usually the cas
  11. Another dull and cloudy day in the country today, though perked up a bit for a time...


    1. lassie23


      Manchester always seems to have cloudy nothingness

    2. weather09


      Same with Leeds.  Must be the northern climate... :unknw:

  12. Despite the fairly active period during parts of May/June, for me, has been somewhat underwhelming this year, so far, for storms. We've yet to see a period of proper heat, with setups favourable for the big storms lacking. Being the UK, always best to keep expectations low, but still.. Short term: shortwave upper low looks to slide SE during tomorrow bringing renewed push of cool mid-levels at 500mb from the NW, steepening mid-level lapse rates and generating marginal instability with surface heating from mid-late afternoon. Discrepancy between Euro4 and other models, though, on how fa
  13. Despite the dull wet weather, folks 'round here looking happy. Must be that mid-week feeling. 

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