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Chris W

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  1. Current warming estimated around 80C, and some output has it heading towards 100C with 10hPa temperatures of around +15C being mentioned. The 10hPa vortex has already moved as a result, and the 70hPa vortex is slowing significantly under the warm area. That linked thread details it. See also this link and video from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research (NIWA): https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2019
  2. I am not strongly-placed to technically describe this event, however as it is only the third in the last 20 or so years and looks unprecedented in scale I thought you folks would want to read more about it. This thread from the NZ Weather Forum describes it well: https://www.weatherforum.nz/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6013
  3. Ceduna, SA just hit its record all-time high temperature of 48.4C according to BOM SA on Twitter. That’s a coastal town. This side of the ditch, 33.4C in Christchurch today but looking at mid-thirties early next week.
  4. That would be an awesome relief, like the doctor in Perth! Except that in this case it is a front rather than a sea breeze. Meanwhile in NZ we’ve been hitting 30 a few times this week, that’ll do nicely.
  5. One report on Twitter says that Alice Springs has recorded its highest ever temperature today. The BOM forecast for Alice is 45 and for Melbourne it is 42, which in Melbourne’s case they do reach every 3 to 5 years.
  6. I had a look at the BOM page and saw that figure of 129mm yesterday, that is an immense amount of rain and I really feel for the people of Hobart. This system is now heading away from Australia thankfully, onwards to NZ but any comments on what happens there are not for this thread.
  7. I’ll bow to your experience but it looks a pretty decent event to me, particularly for NSW and Tasmania. Then we’ll see whether it does the usual and ambles across the ditch to cause trouble here!
  8. Fehi triggered a change from a very hot summer, quite glorious in December and January overall, to a very wet autumn for most of NZ. Cyclone Gita was terrible for central NZ in particular. Indeed the hydro lakes are their fullest for this time of year for around 20 years! It has been westerly-dominated from April since the cyclones and other lows soaked us in Februqry and March, but a drier and very pleasant start to May. Possible signs of a change to colder/stormier conditions mid-May, perhaps as a result of the SSW currently underway over Antarctica as I posted about in the aussie thread.
  9. That heat looks set to make way for cooler conditions next week (BOM Access model) as a sizeable southeasterly front, driven by a major east coast/cut-off low, makes its way across Victoria and NSW as far as Queensland. There should be some storm activity with that I would imagine! Curiously there is also apprently a sudden stratospheric warming underway over the Antarctic. I haven’t experienced one as yet down here so not really sure what it might bring for Aus/NZ. Potentially more cold interludes and more significantly cold to go with that?
  10. 'Snaw', love it! Some amazing photos and videos from you guys - wish I was back in Dundee or Edinburgh on the end of this.
  11. Looks like you're all about to get it from some very vigorous-looking showers. Enjoy!
  12. Lurking from NZ, for Pete's sake where was this when I was visiting Sunderland at Christmas?!!! Lucky so and so's all of you
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