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Chris W

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    Christchurch, NZ
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  1. Chris W

    Australian Weather

    I had a look at the BOM page and saw that figure of 129mm yesterday, that is an immense amount of rain and I really feel for the people of Hobart. This system is now heading away from Australia thankfully, onwards to NZ but any comments on what happens there are not for this thread.
  2. Chris W

    Australian Weather

    I’ll bow to your experience but it looks a pretty decent event to me, particularly for NSW and Tasmania. Then we’ll see whether it does the usual and ambles across the ditch to cause trouble here!
  3. Chris W

    New Zealand Weather

    Fehi triggered a change from a very hot summer, quite glorious in December and January overall, to a very wet autumn for most of NZ. Cyclone Gita was terrible for central NZ in particular. Indeed the hydro lakes are their fullest for this time of year for around 20 years! It has been westerly-dominated from April since the cyclones and other lows soaked us in Februqry and March, but a drier and very pleasant start to May. Possible signs of a change to colder/stormier conditions mid-May, perhaps as a result of the SSW currently underway over Antarctica as I posted about in the aussie thread.
  4. Chris W

    Australian Weather

    That heat looks set to make way for cooler conditions next week (BOM Access model) as a sizeable southeasterly front, driven by a major east coast/cut-off low, makes its way across Victoria and NSW as far as Queensland. There should be some storm activity with that I would imagine! Curiously there is also apprently a sudden stratospheric warming underway over the Antarctic. I haven’t experienced one as yet down here so not really sure what it might bring for Aus/NZ. Potentially more cold interludes and more significantly cold to go with that?
  5. 'Snaw', love it! Some amazing photos and videos from you guys - wish I was back in Dundee or Edinburgh on the end of this.
  6. Windchill must be seriously cold.
  7. Looks like you're all about to get it from some very vigorous-looking showers. Enjoy!
  8. That's the absolute business for a coldie.
  9. Lurking from NZ, for Pete's sake where was this when I was visiting Sunderland at Christmas?!!! Lucky so and so's all of you
  10. Just decided to check back in from cyclone-ravaged NZ and you have both a beasterly and a Greenland high coming going by the GFS...top work guys!
  11. Tomasz Schafernaker in his week ahead video indicated that an easterly was coming and showed interestingly enough in the graphic that the high was to the north of the UK in a very helpful position for a cold easterly. Granted a graphic is not a chart, but I do believe that the BBC place a graphic’s content where they mean it to be. I agree that the gfs output as it stands is plausible, particularly given the mild air over Southern Europe, but my experience of significant cold is that it really develops inside 24-48 hours of commencing. So I’m also prepared to believe that the gfs May come round to the other solutions. I would come down on the cold side of the fence because I see blocks as being hard to shift, but I’m not completely convinced.
  12. GFS still sending a lot of energy north and tonight is pushing the high east very easily. It seems a little too eager to do both of those, but the Atlantic low does look very vigorous so it may be too much for the block.
  13. After New year there look to be a couple of days for snow chances via the last several runs off the GFS op. Around the 1st/2nd further north with a weak incursion of PM air, before a more significant chance around the 5th with a low/slider again bringing TM air against PM air. After that it does look as though Atlantic ridging and height rises over Scandinavia are trending more so than lower pressures, but as has been said the uncertainty and unpredictability of this winter's synoptics and variations has been high. From my point of view it is an extremely interesting time and one loaded with potential for snow and cold.
  14. Excellent post stodge, to me this is extremely interesting modelling and at the same time extremely interesting weather. Beats anticyclonic or mild gloom any day!