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smhouston

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    Sheffield,754ft ASL

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  1. Sorry, I maybe being dumb, but don't those first 2 charts indicate only the West of the UK getting cold conditions and everyone else getting between 0-4c which is cold but nothing out of the ordinary, just typical winter temperatures?
  2. Find the whole "GFS isn't get data which is why it's rubbish" laughable. People werent claiming this few days ago when it started coming in to line with the other models. As soon as it goes on a different tangent then out comes the conspiracy theories to somehow justify its wrong rather than picking up on a trend that things may not be as cold and rosey as it may seem. Not surprising an employee would come out with it when they're not getting paid. Threat to national security? Hmmm As for incompatible data formats, yeah maybe true, but a person will not be converting the data by hand, there will be software routines doing so Anyway, disappointing to still see the GFS not swing back, and even more so the UKMO taking a slight step away from cold. Hopefully not a trend? As ever though, FI is T96. No model handles cold scenarios well. Could argue ECM usually is too agressive with cold and usually waters it down nearer the time, purely based on what seen in the past
  3. Not really,that just shows that people need to stop believing FI charts. Genuinely is pointless posting things 10 days out and getting excited (and even downbeat) by them when they will not look like that General theme looks like becoming increasingly colder. Looking dry at first which can be disheartening, but as ever we need the cold first. T144 is the absolute maximum for believing, and even then I'd be reluctant with that and would opt for T96, possibly T120. Cross model agreement needed (including the much, sometimes unfairly, criticised GFS). If there is any chance a UK cold spell could fail then it will
  4. I can certainly see why this is a hunt for cold thread, should maybe even have hopecasting added. The fact people are getting excited at what charts are being produced over a week away shows how far we really are from actually getting something. When you see wintry theme snapped away within 48 hours of arrival despite complete model consensus several years ago it teaches you a very valuable lesson. Until all models are showing the same then the model showing your least favoured outcome will be correct, and even if they show the same, nothing is a given until it's happened. GFS being completely annihilated should be done so at your peril. No one model is correct, even 24 hours out the closest model will not be 100% what happens Unfortunately doesn't look like anything of note and hope will be shifted to mid to late January. Although, seems to be coming a pretty common theme in our winters
  5. Flippin heck, my work colleague lives in Brighton and even they have at least 5cm covering on the roads!
  6. Thought we was going to be inline for the big beefy showers which went over Hull but typical it's going to be too far south for Sheffield Really can't win this cold spell
  7. Lovely blue skies here in Sheffield (Chapeltown). Get the odd flurry every now and again but very small amount of snow from this morning has all melted now
  8. What a waste of time down here in Sheffield. Even looking at the forecast there is only light showers forecasted for rest of week. People seem to big easterlies up yet every time they don't deliver for us Does make me laugh in the model discussion when they always about how the south haven't had anything compared to everywhere else all winter, yet we've also not had anything of note either! Definitely chucking toys out of pram. If it's going to be bitter then there needs to be snow else it can do one for me. Roll on spring warmth
  9. I'd have to agree. This event was looking to be an awful lot of snow throughout this week for the Yorkshire area. That's unfortunately not the case anymore with us only really having Tuesday / Wednesday as the main event, and even then that only looks like it'll deliver a few cms. Sure some places will get more, but from where we was a week ago following the event through, it is rather a disappointment if it turns out like that.
  10. I'm not one to usually post on here and I'm definitely one not to ramp. Even the last failed cold spell I warned people not to dismiss the GFS, so I'd like to consider myself pretty grounded when it comes to these situations! However, wow. I've been a member for a while on here and watch every winter for a special events to be modeled and then disappear eventually, but this one is something else. An absolutely classic winter spell is on the cards as much as I personally don't want it to be atm. How deep the cold gets, and the amount of shower activity to be generated off the North Sea, is something else. The models will be right this time, except for that low to the south I reckon. All down the east side of the country is 100% going to get an absolute pasting, and no doubt other areas will too. Do not underestimate how heavy and consistent the showers can be generated off the North Sea, and that will not be known until T0. Literally the best charts I've seen so close to the time from all my years on here, which is quite a long time now (14 years). For a different thread, but extremely surprised how this has not been publically escalated by the METO. Absolutely dangerous conditions coming up...it's not the snow that kills. Extremely worrying just how cold it'll get and there are a lot of vulnerable people out there.
  11. With the record of Sheffield City Council, they've got no chance!
  12. Also, how much of a factor does sun come in to play at this time of the year? Could there be a lot of melt come Friday midday say if it snowed Thursday?
  13. What days are looking like being a risk? I'm meant to be popping away for a couple of nights next Friday / Saturday but must admit I'm concerned from what I'm seeing WRT to snow
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