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  1. No this is model output discussion not a positive thinking self help forum - we discuss the output. All to play for as the breakdown is quite a way away - from the models/current scenario it looks to me like we might well get a riding Azores that gets pinched off as a transient hp over us with increasing temps then rinse and repeat - 1995 style...
  2. samadamsuk

    The Madness Of Youth!

    I hope you have this in large canvas on your wall - thats such a good memory!
  3. I take it the air profile/ skewT isn't yet unstable as we're too close to the front - I expect we'll see flurries as it moves away, and especially as the winds turn E
  4. GFS 18z looks pretty good to me - yes the HP fetch turns milder after a while but that troublesome low in a weeks time gets wiped out by the block and we get dumped on in the process...
  5. I'm 44 and I'm sleeping in my bike shed in cirencester ..... I might aswell be 7 again :). No wind here as yet but the rain is on and off.
  6. Looking east from Cirencester at 08:11 tonight - some fine looking storms!
  7. In Cirencester here - can see the stuff trying to pop just east of me. Looks like the 'agitated cu' that you see in the states before the cap pops, some towers leaning too so some low level shear. Looks like its about to rocket!
  8. Explosive updraft north of Oxford - nothing showing in radar but the cap broke and its rapid.
  9. No, this is the storms and convective discussion thread, not the expectation management thread...
  10. I'm not sure about this logic. If Monday the forecast is for a working week of sunny weather, and tuesday it is for a week of rain, that doesn't mean we had a one day forecast. I think we might be confusing accuracy with prediction here. Who's to say that the forecaster wasn't looking out the window on the Monday and got the starting conditions wrong? Then you'd have a no- day forecast?
  11. Finally an interesting scenario shaping up for us storm lovers ... it may end up not panning out with warmth and lightning, but like with most hobbies it's the anticipation and preparation that's often more enjoyable than the event! (Especially true with naked paintballing). We just need to see that low shunt down to the right position - cut off low are notoriously difficult for models as we all know, so fingers crossed we get heat pump and warm moist easterlies... Samos ?
  12. What if we are still 'locked in' for a dire month and it is just that the current runs don't show it unanimously? Surely then this comment is doing the same thing in reverse??? This isn't the long range positivity management forum it's the model output discussion - with a lot of discussion on each single modem run. Things on a knife edge with the big hitters diverging right now! More runs needed as ever :
  13. I think I might have got the earths rotation the wrong way round! - in which case, point 5 makes more sense: Friction Torque (From: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi= The friction torque is the torque that is exerted on the earth’s surface due to the frictional force that occurs because of the wind directly above the Earth’s surface moving relative to the solid earth. If there is an net global westerly surface wind (i.e. a surface wind from the west) the atmosphere will speed the earth’s rotation up, transfer angular mome
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