DTHFCJ

ECM rolling dont look too bad to me not wall to wall sunshine but no washout either..atm.(up to 168 i should say)Up until today the weather has been very good here warm sunny spells and it looks like a pool day tomorrow....again! well chuffed with this summer even if august does eventually go the way of the pear

Bridgend..small world i was in brackla now im in the hills in bettws..like i said enjoy your visit home

Which part of wales are you going too?..tbh no matter what the weather is the scenery is at times breathtaking(when theres no hill fog!)..enjoy

and 26 dont

yet another top post Sir,really enjoy your input Frosty..

agree hence my ? i look forward to the ensemble means.....ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png ? 10 days away at least..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png All aboard the rollercoaster....(better bring your waterproofs) tropical in the middle there

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-48.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-72.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-96.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-120.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-144.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-168.png?12 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-192.png?12 NAEFS not looking too bad either edit the further south and east you are.......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png ok its not bone dry but plenty of warmth(hot tbh) around on these yoyo springs to mind...

John that would be a very good idea ref an explanation of how to use them...... courtesy of Snowking(hope you dont mind Snowking me re posting this).......who posted this 29 June.... Might be a good idea just to do a quick illustration to clear this one up (I do understand it is confusing with the difference between heights and SLP - getting your head around the different pressure layers of the troposphere is one of the most tricky things to do, but its essential for more expansive forecasting) So, heres a couple of basics, the sort of things that I used to take a look at when I only had a chance to glance quickly at the models. I have made some markings on the below image - the latest height anomaly projection from the ECMWF As John has said, ignore the colours for now - follow the lines! (Again its tricky to get your head around, but don't automatically assume that the higher heights (reds) will always lead to high pressure, and vice versa with blues). By the lines, we are talking about the "horizontal" black lines, which are indicated by the green arrows drawn. If anyone can think back to GCSE Maths (or possibly even physics), think of these in terms of a Sine wave. When they point up, they are a peak (or in meteorological terms, a ridge) and when they point down, they are a trough. You might have heard that term trough used a fair bit on here - ridges and troughs are what make up the Longwave Pattern across the Northern (and Southern - though we rarely focus on this) hemisphere. By this, we mean that the weather all around the globe follows a series of ridges (areas of high pressure) and troughs (areas of low pressure). We can identify such areas on the annotated chart above. I have shown a ridge (in the blue box) forecast across the UK - taken in current context, in around 8-10 days time, the current ECMWF suggestion is of ridging across the UK. How can we tell it is a ridge? Because those black bars are pointing towards the north pole. I have also identified a trough (in the yellow box), which would indicate an area of 'troughing' - essentially, an area (or collection) of low pressure. We can tell its a trough because the black lines are facing towards the equator. So, its a case of looking for ridges (black lines facing poleward) for the chance of more settled conditions, and troughs (black lines facing equator-ward) for unsettled conditions. It gets a lot more complex than that - we can start looking for closed ridges/troughs, and in the winter, we also look at certain colours of the black lines indicating where the 528DAM line (considered a good measure of the 'snow line' under most circumstances) is. But we'll worry about that another day. In the meantime, when looking at height anomaly charts, look for ridges for potential settled spells, and troughs for potential unsettled spells, in the vicinity of the UK thanks to Snowking

agree 100%..the ECM ensembles mean have been showing this for a while.....be they right or wrong they are showing it also... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif trough there yes but nothing like the last several summers...i know before im told wait for 3 or more runs.....etc etc

cheers SS

it used to be,its defo on this evening though ....they sometimes put it on the bbc website though....

Summer sun have you got a link to that please?

my apologies,i copied and pasted your code and included the full stop!...lol cheers im in

hi,is this the fantasy premier league,ive tried the code..it dont work?.... if not heres another code for anyone who wants to join 613340-149574 sorry off topic,Mods feel free to move to where it should be "footynet" is the name

Although not fanatstic these dont look too bad for us,i can see a trough there but at least its not as deep as the last few summers? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif im still trying to learn these charts tbh..... looks to me to be some ridge towards the south east....

Frosty..love your posts,so much goes into them and your enthusiasm is top qualityi too have learnt a lot form many posters on here,my knowledege of the weather has increased reading many posters posts...a few users have been mentioned and there are many more that take the time to try to explain whats going on with our weather which is far from easy to explain at times....whatever happens from here this summer in my books has been perfect,its another lovely day here in south wales and after the last few weeks i will not moan when it becomes more changeable IF it does...... sorry for going off topic Mods

How are the ensemble means looking?....i bet not as bad as the ops?.....

Ensembles are not too shoddy..both GFS and ECMWF..12Z's,(especially the further south and east you are) apologies ref not posting charts,im sure Frosty will be on the ball shortly though.... NAEFS are not bad either,cue Bluearmy....

trust me on this one i hope your spot on,tbh you normally are too,this last couple of weeks have been nothing short of fantastic and i like many have enjoyed every single second of it,i know you rate NAEFS Nick...and for the sake of 6 weeks of zero school lets hope they are on the money edit,this summer to me has such a 2006 ring to it....i remember 2006 had a 2 week run where it was very unsettled..(my 2 week holiday off work!) fortunes then changed it settled and the settled weather carried on and on and on ariston...... just checked NAEFS,see what you mean...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif Good agreement there for unsettled,mirrors the METO 6-15 dayer

tbh its the first time i have ever seen those sort of temps on the bbc website...records to be smashed??..who knows......

Just looked on the bbc site,looking at londons 10 day(er)..i know they are just ranges they use on the extended but "could" max out as mon 31c,tues 32c weds 36c and cooling off thurs to 35c (at least they are showing the potential is there) like has been mentioned.... paris knocking on 40c door on the thurs.....25th