Allseasons-Si

Who is looking forward to the next chase? not been on for a couple of days as my partners condition is not good,...still waiting for the results of her MRI scan,but i am strong,...you have to be... weather is weather and if something is more importent then you have priorities hope to be posting more soon GN you lot,...you are all family in here

Oh no,it has reached the houses

It has erupted just north of Grindavik

Grindavik evacuated as a massive swarm of Eq's is happening eruption imminant... Skjálfti VAFRI.IS Skjálfti

I wonder if we can throw this tpv lobe SE with residual height's(white box) to the NE of it in future runs,the lobe already looks negatively tilted compared to the 12z.

Erm!!! what's happening here at just t90? it seems that there is height's trying to force/sheer this trough south,...mmm.

Please stay on topic or post's are going to be removed model output discussion in here only,if you respond to an off topic post,...it will get removed please stick to the forum guidelines thank you

I just want to refresh everyone's memory here and why is everyone looking at a breakdown 7+days away when this cold spell hasn't even started yet,7 days is a very long time in meteology and anything is possible up until then we have a cold and unstable airflow forecast from the north and it is damn right pointless guessing when and where snow will fall because it is one of the hardest weather types to predict and there will be disturbances popping up at very short notice it's going to be cold,...it's going to be frosty,we have no rain forecast,we get out on a lovely cold crisp walk instead of dreary grey sky's with drizzle keeping us in and feeling depressed and the models can and will change(not by much) but it will look different in the models come next weekend i garentee that to what we are seeing for next weekend ATM We have a quick race into phase 6-7 on the MJO plots come the end of the month so edure a brief blast of zonal(IF it does happen) ,then back to another chase beginning of Feb @MATTWOLVES 3 i am glad that you have your dad's ashes by your side and he will always be by your side pal,% all the best to you my friend in the meantime enjoy the cold crisp weather

If London is good below the -5 line,then all is good good night guys

That mean is,...i mean is a beauty my local and London flatlining below the -5 isotherm,...take note,...this is coming to a place near you.

Look at the mean 850's now -8 into the midlands than the borders of Scotland we are still upgrading in this regard,...how much upgrades can we take,...all of them

The control and mean are both an upgrade at 120,...keep the upgrades coming,....pleeeeaaaaase 18z v's 12z short gefs ens,...-10 mean

Because the cold pool to our north is intensifying on each run= deflecting them further south i said the other night that this trough to our N/NE is the main player here

People worried about snow chances need to keep a calm head on here,we have a cold spell coming,...granted but the snow chances will come at short range,...believe me. Edit: @Met4Cast just said the same and it is true,...get the cold in first,snow will folow.

OH WOW!!! SW system quashed,...we stay in the cold game for longer +look at the seperation of pv lobes and to top that a trough out to our west get sheared off completely. what a run.

What a difference in terms of 850's because the shortwave comes down from the north instead of phasing with the pv lobe over the NE states

The gfs is a big upgrade in keeping the two pv lobes apart,...a lot better.

Yes me too,...it's a shame they don't add extra like the 00z/12z upto t180 so i suppose we will see in the morning if it keeps the two vortices apart longer,keep these apart for longer prolongs the cold spell,...simple's looking at the cpc,...the 6-10 dayer keeps us in the cold pattern but the ext'd has shifted to the other medium range models unfortunately.

No shortwave drama around S Greenland on the 18z ICON hence the further push of colder air into the UK thanks to a cleaner flow. 18z t114 v's 12z t120.

Guess what!!! the gfs is a mild outlier *AGAIN*

UKMO 168 thank you very much.

This set off a glacial flood... Glacial Outburst Flood Has Begun in Grímsvötn WWW.ICELANDREVIEW.COM A glacial outburst flood has begun in Grímsvötn, experts have confirmed. An M4.3 earthquake occured at the site this morning.

This is a really good set of gefs ens for London.

The gfs was way in la la land on the ens,...bodes well in keeping the low further south... that is a good ens set for London BTW

The control has the low further SE than the 12z The mean is colder,...probably tracking the mid week storm further south. the ens for London are colder than the 12z via this midweek storm compared to the 12z...