Allseasons-Si

Hi everyone,been lurking but not much of a contribution today as i have been ill overnight and today,much better now though interestingly looking at the EC46 there does seem to be a relent in the cold as we move onto the latter stages of Jan(fun times before this though for quite a few peeps) but this may be a temp blip looking at this Weather regimes probabilities graph it shows (as we know) a blocking(red) then an Atlantic ridge(purple) then a -NAO(green) upto the 19th/20th then a relent in the scenario's for cold weather but doesn't mean that Zonal will be the form horse(blue) as this could mean that the jet could be further south,...southerly +NAO if you like but we don't know this yet but what about after this? this does look(ATM) that this will be a temprary afair as we loose the zonal signature (blue)as we enter the new month to more of a blocking regime also looking at the Time-longitudes diagram,this reflects the above,i have marked out the scenario's on the basis of this chart below,GH for Greenland high(red) on which we know that the foundations is set for this,zonal (blue) for the latter part of the month,but looking ahead there is tentative signs that blocking to our NE at the end of the month (SH=Scandi high) may take a foothold then migrate somewhere nr the UK(UH=UK high) then migrate W/NW again,all speculative ATM but something to watch for in the meantime,...a great week of model watching to get through in terms of who will get the snow midweek next week And one final note or two,...great post's again from @Catacol @Tamara @Met4Cast @TEITS and a good selection in here too but please keep the IMBY post's to the regionals where they do belong,...thankyou.

There is my arctic rabbit sitting proud,i remember a cold spell showing the same synoptic charts(cannot remember the year) that produced. i really must go now,...hold the fort and be nice

Just had an hickup,....really? i love this chase ha ha.

One thing that is bullish about the gfs is them Alaskan heights,i don't know what impacts it has down the line but is this forcing the jet further south in our local? it does seem to be forcing colder weather down into north America.

I think the gfs needs a safehouse It does get the jet further south though,...bless it so there could be some surprises from the mediocre run even though i support Man Utd,this model reminds me of it ATM over to the overnight crew,...i am out night guys.

But wait,...it might be sniffing a new pattern,...watch for height's here(black arrow)

I am back and i did miss the ECM run as i had to nip out and another cracking run it was too and just about anyone could see some snow over the next two weeks i just thought i would add the NAVGEM below before having a look at some other stuff,a nice blocking high there on this run with no phasing issues with our northerly trough with the ESB trough It is going to turn colder as we all know after the mild-er blip from the 11th-12th as the gefs and EPS ens show and i think that this cold spell is starting to have a bit more legs to it the cpc still banging the blocking drum,...this has been consistant for some days now and you can see in the ext'd anomaly the lower heights to our SW,this is that feature that we see on the dets and to some extent on the means to heralding an approach of lower preasure from the SW under the base of our northerly trough,it does look to me that it slides south of the UK but this is just an anomaly but it looks good to me EC ens graph 850's and 2m temps look cold with the op on the mild side of the pack of 850's but look at the 2m temps,this tells me that the op is still cold at the surface. well that's my brief look at things,...on to the 18z we go them Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004085

Nope It has been a great build up since the start of the new year and may it continue,also we are in prime territory (Jan) for it to happen and then we have Feb to start again ha ha,...love it there has been some great insightfull post's on here over the last few weeks models watching and i am sure that everyone including newbies and the experienced alike are also taking a lot in,i for sure have been over the years that i have been on here,a great lurning experience that's for sure great comunity in here barring the odd bickering and imbyism which does spoil it for some,...it's always the case regarding who gets snow and who doesn't but i will tell everyone on here that it is difficult for everyone in the UK to get snow from one cold spell i wish all the best for this cold spell and get snow but if you don't,...don't blame the weather there is always the next time eh.

I am back and i did miss the ECM run as i had to nip out and another cracking run it was too and just about anyone could see some snow over the next two weeks i just thought i would add the NAVGEM below before having a look at some other stuff,a nice blocking high there on this run with no phasing issues with our northerly trough with the ESB trough It is going to turn colder as we all know after the mild-er blip from the 11th-12th as the gefs and EPS ens show and i think that this cold spell is starting to have a bit more legs to it the cpc still banging the blocking drum,...this has been consistant for some days now and you can see in the ext'd anomaly the lower heights to our SW,this is that feature that we see on the dets and to some extent on the means to heralding an approach of lower preasure from the SW under the base of our northerly trough,it does look to me that it slides south of the UK but this is just an anomaly but it looks good to me EC ens graph 850's and 2m temps look cold with the op on the mild side of the pack of 850's but look at the 2m temps,this tells me that the op is still cold at the surface. well that's my brief look at things,...on to the 18z we go them

We wouldn't know that yet as it's relatively in fl but you can see the notion on this gif,i hope it doesn't happen as a lot of us don't want it to happen,reading between the lines of the Meto though sounds V promising so who knows.

Unfortunately it would phase with the ESB trough(red arrow),so not that good really,we need clean seperation of these two for height's to sustain the pattern.

UKMO at 168,...not a disaster like the gfs...but could of been better,still a way to go yet to be resolved.

UKMO/ICON 144,... LOVELY. the gfs,...well i have stopped viewing it

UKMO/ICON and the gfs at 120,...gfs what are you doing to us cracking UKMO and that it's better than the ICON.

UKMO/ICON at 96,...yes gfs,...mmm.

That's the Alaskan ridge,the ESB ridge is off NE Canada here...

but seriously,...i hope the other 12z follow the ICON,it was sensational to watch it unfold may the force be with us

The difference is huge here,...for the better,...great start to the 12z

Clean as a whistle this run ICON 12z v's 00z

It is just one run and one run that i am commenting on,the low/trough is further south on this run regardless of height's to our NE,we are still in cold air by a marked trough to our NE driving the pattern and what ever encroaches us from the west SW hitting the cold air will have a battleground scenario written all over it we may well not hold the pattern for long but at least we have a chance of seeing some snow somewhere over the UK in this period,...where is yet to be decided high risk high reward.

It doesn't matter as long as we have cold over the Uk whilst troughs/lows slide E/SE ,would keep us in the game the cold is further south on this run too.

The gfs moves the SW low into a better slider territory,...slide it further east as the 18z show would keep us in with the colder game 18z v's 12z.

Just a quick one whilst Man utd are at half time this is good going forward to get us out of a quick unfavourable position to race round to more of a favourable position latest CPC however kepping in with the blocking theme to our NW,i am still happy with that

EPS mean from 144... 216 v's 240 00z,...oh yes.

Brilliant ECM,...very cold with disturbancies in the flow... sorry for the quick post as i am doing dinner.