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Everything posted by Allseasons-Si
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All roads lead to cold Rome Nick -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That Scuasian block is more prevalent on this run and disrupts that Scandi trough hmmmm!,what would come out of this? -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes as other's have just said,the UKMO is very good and i can explain why... 12z v's 00z(slight timing obs) ...it's more amplified downstream off the ESB(eastern seaboard),this would enable better upstream amplification in the Atlantic. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have edited my post swfc^ i was referring to the ICON. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good question as there is no error message on Meteociel! as for this morning and seems no one has mentioned it,the 06z run was more amplified than the 00z 06z 120 v's 00z 126. i was looking forward to the 12z ICON as it's the first afternoon run out -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As much as possible with a cherry on top. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
New signal? -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Turn for the SE in phase one... turn tor the NE in phase two... all roads lead to cold on this run..lets not hope it is in Italy -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's all words under the rainbow,it's...ing great Nick to peeps,if this comes off it's not a toppler when heights lower to our south. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now the gfs is starting to smell the Santa coffee... up she goes blimey gfs,you know how to cause drama don't you. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 18z is a few 100 miles north better with the ridge. though i think it will take until next WINTER to catch up with the ECM -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Love it this is me viewing the 12 gfs then this is me viewing the ECM then this is me in reality... ...MET OFFICE anyway,the 18z ICON is more amplified than the 12z and a shallower low 18z at 120 v's 12z at 126. now the final run of the day...the 18z gfs... prams and dummies in tact -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As is potential optimism But you are right as it is still ten days away,lovely ECM though it has to be said and as @nick sussex says there would be a cold lock in from there with re-newed height's in the Atlantic. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That trough in the Atlantic is disrupting against the block at 216,and it should go under. Edit: and it does... BEAUTIFUL -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WAA going up into W Greenland at 192... BTW,did anyone see the control run...."BONKERS" it does look like some of the EPS clusters with height's to the NW/NE with trough dropping down into Europe. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I like the ECM at 168 v's this morning with more amplification into the Atlantic. obviously there is slight timings but you can't split 12 hrs on the ECM. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't worry,the GEM saves the day.... in all seriousness,there is plenty of time for upgrades,...if any -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't worry about the micro bits in fl just yet, lets get this ridge into play first as the macro details are within the same theme. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More or less strait vertical WAA up the west side of Greenland,good run this Ed. just to add... look at the trop pv and NH profile,...stunning. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Allseasons-Si replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Ed,more amplified off the ESB 192>