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Allseasons-si

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Allseasons-si last won the day on June 6

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    Hemingfield,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
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    extreme weather,walking
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    severe storms,snow wind and ice

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  1. I say wait...again,there are hp cells left,right and center...north of us,don't forget this too quick to throw the towel in i would say
  2. More heights into the pole on this run,Siberian hp cell growing and buckling the trough to the north of the BI,i suspect a link up pretty soon with both the hp cells,one in the polar regions and Siberia
  3. At 120 it's a stait northerly(no squiggly lines) and and wesward correction on the heights into Greenland although the heights are not as strong,mmm!
  4. yes Damianslaw,i would give it a green light by gettiing carried away,but still too far out to call on this,like i said earlier,that Siberian hp cell is growing on each model run so i would stop at this junture for now
  5. The NAO/AO is as you were from last nights
  6. I know it's the icon model but just waiting for the 18z to come out,it is an upgrade to the 12z in regards to the trough seperation in the Greenland area at 120 where the heights get into the pole forcing that Svalbald trough further south,trough over uk a bit further south too now onto the 18z gfs
  7. Evening all very good model output again today and here is my two cents worth,and i will start with the 850 temps,if the models are correct nearer the time my theory is that the -temps will come down by 1or 2c maybe a bit more at a push,and if we get some type of continental flow going,the 850's doesn't need to be -5 or below,you can achieve snow with -1 to -2 uppers,short travel over sea and dry continental air is the reason,whereas if you have northerlies,northwesterlies or even westerlies,you need the uppers lower than -5 because of the long track over sea now i will have a look at what is going on from today's outputs,i am picking this baseline/timeframe(@240 hrs) as it is relevant to what i am going to discuss and not because it's way in FL cos it is i have been keeping an eye on developements over in Siberia that the hp cell over there has been growing more and more on each and nearly every run(some don't go out that far) from most models and is showing on the mean charts now,and there has been a slight westward shift in pattern because of this siberian block putting more force on the trough and i would not rule out this trough going further south ecm and gfs mean at day ten ecm and gfs op at day ten+ the control and jma at 192(the control being a cold outlier) as can be seen on the dutch ens below wind direct still shows a dip into easterlies around the 29th/30th,the op,control and gem show that with the majority of the ens too the 500mb height anomoly's from the NOAA shows more ridging into the Atlantic from the last couple of days,big chunk of pv over eastern Siberia and a horseshoe wedge of heights from Atlantic into the pole and down into mid Siberia/eastern europe.
  8. Yes,looking at that trough coming down,it has cold air inbeded in it
  9. This is much better from the 18z,heights punching into greenland on this run at 144hrs talk about a backtrack,i would have thought that it would show this on Sunday lol.
  10. A definate backtrack from the gfs at 120, the main three, more oomph up to the NE on the gfs
  11. Wait the 18z and the 12z height going up now.
  12. Steve murr posted this chart from the ecm last Friday for this Thursday not bad is it in fact...pretty cock on. well done ecm.
  13. Latest from the NAO/AO the AO is tanking again whereas it was showing to go neutral on the last run,the NAO was showing to go neutral positive on the last run but stays neg just(going on majority)
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