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xmetman

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  1. I have always been fascinated by weather maps and atmospheric patterns or more strictly atmospheric circulation. So I decided to download the freely available NCEP re-analysis data to investigate it and used it initially to produce weekly mean pressure charts for the British Isles and the eastern Atlantic for the first 15 weeks of 2014. I now have data to display pressure charts for anywhere in the world in six hourly time-steps, and although the data is fairly coarse (2.5° x 2.5° grid), I can now produce weekly, monthly and seasonal charts of mean pressure and anomalies which I think provid
  2. I was just looking at the rainfall totals that I compile from UK SYNOP observations for the last month and was struck by how dry parts of Eastern England and Scotland have been. East Anglia has been particularly dry with Wattisham and Marham receiving just 15.5 and 16.1 mm of rain respectively up to 0600 this morning. As far as I see I have had received close to 100% of reports from the vast majority of sites, but of course I don’t see any corrections that may have been reported. I am sure the Met Office do, or have had problems with the Hawarden SAMOS (#1 driest site), as the 4.3 mm tota
  3. As you all know I keep a very close eye on Central England Temperatures and so far 2014 is certainly pushing the upper boundary for the warmest year since 1772, with a mean to date (1 January to 27th April) of 7.34°C, which is +2.13°C above the long-term average, and the third warmest in the daily series back to 1772. Interestingly four of the other top seven warmest starts to a year also occurred in this century, and 2014 is paralleling 2007 very closely. Table and graph at xmetman
  4. I finally got round to processing the latest UK Precipitation datasets that I download from the Met Office to have a closer look at the figures for last winter and see just exactly how wet it was region by region across the United Kingdom. Of course it goes without saying that the winter of 2013/14 was wet across all regions of the United Kingdom and particularly so in the south. Interestingly though, the North East and Central regions of England escaped the worst of the rain and the flooding that other parts experienced. Most regional records were smashed, but probably the most telling is th
  5. I was delving into the Objective Lamb Weather dataset maintained by the Climate Research Unit [CRU] at the University of East Anglia [uEA] as you do, and decided to rank some of the parameters in the dataset and place them in a tabulated grid, and at the same time display the matching surface chart from the Wetterzentrale archive. The UEA produce four datasets for the hours of 00, 06, 12 & 18, but I decided to use the midnight one so I could display the corresponding file from the Wetterzentrale archive. The only drawback with this is the Lamb Weather Type is not calculated as it is with 1
  6. I've just run an analysis on rainfall totals for the last 30 days (18 February to 20 March) that I collate from SYNOP observations from the UK and across the world. After such a wet winter, things have dried out very well across a lot of the UK, and for some places Its been a very dry 30 days, which although not exceptional for the months of February and March because they can be very anticyclonic, its such a great contrast from the preceding months. Hawarden in Flintshire is the top dry spot and has received just 4.8 mm of rain, and many other sites in Eastern England recording less than 20 m
  7. Hi The latest HURDAT2 data has just been released by NOAA for last year 2013. Although the season officially ends on the 30th November there was a late unnamed storm that appeared on the 3rd December for 3 days or so which brought the count up to 12 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes. Full report in blog with the following images: (1) N Atlantic plotted chart of 2013 tropical cyclones (2) Gantt time line. (3) Tabulated list of 2013 tropical cyclones (4) Annual ACE & hurricane count totals 1986-2013 (5) Table of Predictions of tropical activity in the 2013 season (courtesy of Wikipedia) (6
  8. Hi I've just done some work on what was the wettest place in Europe during winter 2013/14 and I found it to be Eik Hove in southern Norway. I did notice that it was the wettest place despite a good three weeks of January were it was more or less dry! The reason it was so dry is that a ridge of high pressure over Finland effectively blocked any lows in the North sea from crossing in to the Baltic as they had done in December (when we were on holiday there). xmetman
  9. Hi I have expanded on the work I did in analysing climate data reported in SYNOP reports for the UK to look at the whole of Europe. On the whole the results that I got from over 1300 sites look very good, and I only had to intervene at some sites because of minor corruption either in encoding or in transmission. Most countries in Europe did report 12 hourly rainfall totals at 0600 and 1800 UTC so all I had to do was add the two values up to get a daily total. Only one country let me down and surprisingly it was Iceland who couldn't or wouldn't use the good old 6 group which every one else doe
  10. Hi Looks like this winter could break the record for lowest number of air frosts [DJF]. I make the count 4 so far for 2013/14, and although the current lowest is 6 in 1924/25, there doesn't seem to be a cold snap coming this side of March. A 'CET frost' is always more difficult to achieve than a local air frost because it's a composite calculated from a number of sites. My total air frosts this winter for mid-Devon is in fact 11, but then again we are outwith the Central England area. I've attached some other charts in my blog as well: (1) Annual daily number of frost days(2) Daily Frequency o
  11. Hi The lows maybe not as intense, and the gradients not as tight, but that means the features that wrap around the lows are slower and take longer to clear, so if you have a look at the estimated accumulations for today since 0000 UTC they are still as high in my opinion. at least for the SW of England & Wales as they have been for any of the events in recent weeks. xmetman
  12. Hi I read an article in the Guardian today and it has me puzzled. Lord Stern states in the third paragraph of that article that climate change has arrived and is now happening. This may be correct , but what he says next to support his claim is not: “Four of the five wettest years recorded in the UK have occurred from the year 2000 onwardâ€â€œOver that same period, we have also had the seven warmest years†With regard to the rainfall in the UK I use as my evidence the UKP dataset maintained by the UKMO and which dates back to 1766, and is in fact the oldest instrumental record of its kind i
  13. Hi I've spent the last couple of days wracked in pain from my first (and hopefully last) attack of shingles whilst writing an application to total rainfall up for this winter for the UK from the SYNOP observations that I download from FSU. As well as a tabulated/ranked list of the accumulations, which Capel Curig is currently top of, there are a couple of plotted UK maps which I didn't contour, although its easy to see the wet spots. Hopefully I've got my logic right, and these totals that I've grabbed from the 0600 & 1800 UTC SYNOP observations are correct! As far as I can see, i
  14. Hi Here's a link to a map of estimated rainfall accumulation for the period 0000-1030 UTC for today over southern England on my blog: xmetman In Mid-Devon we had 6 mm which is slightly over what the 15 minute radar produced. Obviously the more frequent the image the better the estimate and for this part of Devon it should be close. Highest totals are in SW Wales and the Brecon Beacons with total in excess of 40 mm. I notice that the upper catchment area of the Thames around Cirencester have received an estimated ~8-10 mm. The map shows a noticeable rain shadow to the lee of Dartmoor with the
  15. Hi After such a wet month as January 2014, I decided to look at what evidence there was for an increase in incidence of extreme rainfall events across the United Kingdom. The best way to do this as far as I can see is to use the daily records that make up the UKP datasets and which are maintained and made freely available by the Met Office. They split the country up into nine sub-regions and provide daily values back to 1931 for each. On top of this they have 3 sets of composite regional values for Scotland, Northern Ireland and England Wales as well. The report contains graphs with an ann
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