March Blizzard
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Posts posted by March Blizzard
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Nice to see that there's a good chance for a very mild November. Hopefully it won't be ruined by any cold rubbish later on in the month...
Scott, it's impossible to ruin the current weather - it's at Rock Bottom. Any changes down the line, whether they be mild or cold, would be an improvement.
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I actually like the fog...
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Serious lack of snow in Scandinavia..
Yeah, I've got Kiruna on my Iphone weather app thing, and I've noticed how mild it's been for at least the last month; in November it should be around -7C by day and -13C at night, it's currently still above freezing by day and only getting to -3C or so overnight - considerably warmer than even the October averages.
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Here's what the 06z GFS shows for the first 10 days of the month
12.0C to the 1st (12.0: +2.6)
12.1C to the 2nd (12.2: +3.2)
11.5C to the 3rd (10.4: +1.4)
11.6C to the 4th (11.9: +3.4)
11.7C to the 5th (12.1: +3.8]
12.1C to the 6th (13.8: +5.6) [Record high: 13.4C]
12.6C to the 7th (15.5: +7.2) [Record high: 13.4C]
12.5C to the 8th (11.7: +3.0)
12.1C to the 9th (9.5: +1.4)
12.1C to the 10th (11.9: +4.0)
Close to record mild for the start of the month. The latest a daily CET of 15.0C or more has been recorded is November 5th so the forecast for the 7th is quite interesting. The graph below shows the rolling average CET for the years with the warmest first 10 days, and the forecast 2015.
Wow, that's some anomoly on the 6th/7th, a value more typical of June or September. Rolling averages above 12C this time of year just looks wrong.
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I'll go 7.7C please
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I honestly don't have a favourite or least favourite, each season has it's pros and cons.
If I had to pick one season to last perpetually it would probably be Spring - it has far more pros than cons, in my opinion, with it's variability and potential other-season characteristics it's biggest redeeming feature; you can have winter in March and summer in May.
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feels like I'm the only four-season lover on this forum.
Nope. I love the seasons, each has it's unique charm and each has it's pros and cons. The only problem, for me, is that in our country they aren't as pronounced/defined as I'd like.
I'd love a truly four-seasons climate - somewhere like Maine.
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So after a 5 month break the mild train is reloading.
For another 5 months, most probably...
...but hopefully not.
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It will show mild tomorrow
Would that be today, then? Or are we going back to the future?
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No doubt it was still a disgusting and vile day.
Yep, and to think, some on here actually prefer that to the cool but mostly sunny and dry conditions we had for weeks preceding it. Each to their own and-all, but I for one can't get my head 'round it!
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This October is going to be another record breaking month.Lack of rain.
Yeah, the lack of rain at this time of year seems very strange. More akin in feel to the dryness more typical of Feb/March.
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We are now entering what I think of as the leading "Winter periphery" - the mid to late October period in which frosts become more likely, frequent and widespread and daytime maxima can be really suppressed in the right setup. Also, we can start to see the first bit of wintry precipitation in rare circumstances.
Not winter, but not a million miles away.
After that you've got the "extended winter season", the five months Nov thru March, in which wintry conditions can feature and persist.
Narrowing further, the "winter season" of mid Nov to mid March. This is the time of year in which properly severe winter weather can occur, with ice days, blizzards and sub -20C minima possible.
The winter itself, Dec-Feb, is self-explanatory, with any kind of winter weather possible at any time during this period.
Finally, the winter "core" of Jan to mid-Feb. The time of year when the most severe conditions are possible/likely.
To finish, the trailing "winter periphery" of early-mid April. Frosts can still be widespread and potent, and the threat of wintry precipitation hasn't yet passed, but winter fast begins to lose it's influence.
Well...that's how I see it, anyway!
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Not keen for my location, to me that suggests NW'lys to dominate, so for areas away from north/northwest rain at low levels
Last winter I had a few good falls of snow from NW'lys, so with a larger/more anomalous cold pool this time round it could be a very decent winter for me if that's how it transpires.
Anyway, with a cold Northern/Eastern Europe that graphic hints at a lot of northern blocking to my untrained eye. Lots of encouraging signs for not just my location, but the whole of the UK in my opinion.
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Indeed MB working on roofs in sub zero temps with snow and ice can be challenging to say the least!
I can imagine!
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I really hope the AccuWeather Winter forecast is inaccurate - which it probably will be to some extent. I would much rather see snow than 'seasonal' conditions.
I'd take that.
I presume the "cold spells" for Ireland/Scotland are due in-part to the Atlantic cold pool, and "abnormal cold" in Scandi is never a bad thing for cold/snow potential for us in the UK. "Seasonal" is better than "mild", and with a lot of cold surrounding us it wouldn't take much to throw us in the freezer.
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Back in my youth i once walked nearly 6 miles in a Blizzard to get to Flagg at 4 in the morning to milk cows. A jurney i will never forget!
Aye. Being a postman walking such distances (and further) in horrendous conditions is par-for-the-course. I waded through the deep snow and ear-stinging temperatures of Jan 2010 and slipped about on the ice of Dec 2010 (even with boot chains) day-in, day-out. I have little sympathy for those able but not willing to walk to work and back. However, I can assure you a 2 and 1/2 mile walk on/in ice/snow takes more than half an hour.
Us rugged outdoorsmen are a breed apart.
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Today was the first day in which the sun starts to have the same intensity as the winter months.
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I'm running the risk of being a killjoy, but won't most of that snow west of the Urals and south of say, 60N, be transient/short lived?
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says who?
Sod's law?!
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Indeed. Today was awful compared with what we've had. I was away with friends this weekend and they were commenting on how good the weather had been. They were amazed when I said it had been the coolest September for 20 years. It baffles me that anyone could prefer this kludge just because it's a couple of degrees warmer.
Agreed. It's most frustrating in winter when a beautiful clear, cold spell/snap breaks down to mild, wet and cloudy muck. "At least it will be mild!" is gleefully stated by weather reporters, as if the bit of extra warmth (which I don't want anyway - it's winter) makes up for the dismal conditions.
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Could it be because the cloud was a lot more stubborn across C England yesterday than forecast and thus kept temperatures much cooler?
Maybe due to colder nights than expected? We're at/getting to that time of year in which maxima reach a certain limit, but minima hinge on cloud cover/wind overnight. An unexpected break in the cloud and the temperatures can fall way beyond the expected low.
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It would just be our luck for the cold pool to moderate or die completely, only to rise like a Phoenix again next April.
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The minimum today is 5.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 17s, so a drop to around 11.9C is likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
11.6C to the 3rd (11.1: -1.0)
11.6C to the 4th (11.6: -0.3)
12.1C to the 5th (13.9: +2.3)
12.8C to the 6th (16.6: +4.7)
12.8C to the 7th (12.3: +0.6)
12.7C to the 8th (12.2: +0.4)
12.7C to the 9th (12.7: +0.8]
12.9C to the 10th (15.0: +2.8]
12.7C to the 11th (10.4: -1.3)
So a slightly cool start, but gradually moving above average by the end of the first week
10.9c to the 3rd
1.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average
The disparity between the projected figure and the actual for the 3rd...
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That isn't my recollection, at least IMBY, so I checked the Met Office maps:Also everyone seems to forget how sunny last winter was. Record winter sunshine if I recall correctly, nowhere near as bad as the horrors of the 13/14 winter.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/winter
Turns out my impressions of a generally dull, wet winter are founded in fact - I'm in that blue blob on the rainfall anomoly map and the grey blob on the sunshine anomoly map!
It wasn't all bad, though, considering I saw quite a few wintry showers throughout the winter, with incredible falls on Boxing Day and in late Jan, with snow lying for at least a week into February, which was the sunniest and frostiest segment of the winter.
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Autumn 2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Don't get how anyone can like the current weather. Honestly, I don't. I'd prefer cold, but mild and dry/sunny would still get my vote over this tripe.