March Blizzard
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Posts posted by March Blizzard
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10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Min today is 5.8C, while maxima looking like hitting the 13s early tomorrow morning, so the CET should remain on 9.9C on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
9.9C to the 22nd (9.5: +5.0)
9.8C to the 23rd (8.2: +3.5)
9.7C to the 24th (8.7: +4.0)
9.7C to the 25th (8.1: +3.6)
9.6C to the 26th (8.6: +4.3)
9.7C to the 27th (11.9: +8.0) [Record High: 10.6C]
9.7C to the 28th (10.2: +6.1)
9.7C to the 29th (9.8: +5.9)
9.8C to the 30th (12.1: +7.9) [Record High: 11.0C]Seems the GFS is flirting with the idea of more record breaking temps after Christmas. Perhaps a 10C+ finish shouldn't be ruled out just yet?
At this juncture, how likely would you consider a post-correction final figure of 9.2C or above, equalling or beating the warmest March on record?
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1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:
Wow I thought April 2011 was exceptional in terms of anomalous warmth. This one does a pretty good job of marginalising it. Not a single night anywhere near freezing here and no ground frost, remarkable mid-late December warmth. T-shirt and shorts weather. The last few nights have been the warmest I have ever known it (in terms of the warm gusty wind) inside the Dec-Feb period (if not for March 2012 I'd include March in this as well)
Lets compare;
December 2010 here;
Mean Maximum 3.3c; 4.8c below normal
Mean Min -1.5c; 4.6c below normal
Mean +0.9c; 4.7c below normal
Current December to the 19th;
Mean Max 13.0c (4.9c above average)
Mean Minimum 10.2c (7.1c above average)
Mean Temperature; 11.6c (6.0 Above average)
Ok I'm comparing it to the 2003-2010 average which is on the cold side compared to the 61-90 (due to 2005 and 2008-2010) Mean Max against the long term is 4.2c above and 6.4c above for minimum
This is more memorable for me than Dec 2010 in terms of extremes.
March 2012 generally had cool/cold, still and clear nights. Pretty much the opposite to now and is the reason it was cooler than this month up 'till now.
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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:
It would feel positively Baltic compared to what we've got now!
To be honest, this is the coldest mildest spell on record for me. Like how others have mentioned, the complete lack of sunshine and persistent winds have ensured that the house never really warms up during the day. I work outdoors, so I'm not afraid of any weather really, but it has actually felt a bit chilly in my house on occasion. Its nuts.
I still cant get my head around this month being warmer than March 2012. Gotta love those big diurnal ranges!
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
You're right, fair point! A winter month with a CET of 6c wouldn't be that unusual for us, how things have changed.
Yeah, do you remember those cold 6C winter months?!!
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4 hours ago, Nick L said:
1685/86 saw a DJF CET of 6.5, 6.5 and 6. So it was pretty mild but not that mild. That's a similar average to 2013/14.
Is that not exceptionally mild? Especially when you consider at that time Jan and Feb probably averaged in the low 3's Celsius, or even less.
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21 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:
It's got to the point where I don't actually want any cooler high pressure or continental flow before the end of the month, like there have been some musings of, as that would mask what looks like being staggering temperature anomalies for southern parts of Britain. Come January the 1st though, I'd like a change please.
I kind of agree with this, unbelievably. In a way I want the December CET record to be completely obliterated.
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4 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:
Interestingly, Piers Corbyn said this.
"This will be a memorable Winter, but that doesn't mean whatever speculation you might have heard on the web will happen."
And by speculation I am guessing he means the usual cold and snow talk that comes around every year. Perhaps he has gone for a super-mild Winter right the way through.
The mildest December and coldest February in the same Winter? That would be memorable!
Anyway, it's Piers, should we pay much attention to what he says/implies?
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I saw snow in January this year, so I've not had the same long wait as many in the south have had. However, whilst I can live without snow, It would be nice to at least have a cold, settled and sunny spell. Some low winter sun and frosty, starry nights would be some very welcome tonic.
May have to wait a while to see that, though.
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It's crazy to think that this month has a very good chance at ending up warmer than March 2012 (8.3C) and for the most part that felt absurdly warm for March.
In a way I'm hoping that the current December record is obliterated, and we end up above 9.2C, the value for the warmest March on record. That would be a turn up for the books.
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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:
If this December becomes the warmest on record, it would be exceptionally mild for November never mind December, it would be exceptionally warm for March. Warmest March is 1957 with 9.2C. It would be staggering if it beats this.
I mentioned this somewhere recently, a Decemeber warmer than the warmest March. 9.3C or higher...we couldn't, could we?!!
Anyway, in regards to the CET comp, it looks I'll get off to a good start with third place (7.2C) barring any serious cool-down late in the month. Craig Evans has pretty much already won this month- wouldn't it be funny if he went too low!
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4 hours ago, daz_4 said:
This year. What the **** is up with that high in south? It has been sitting there with short breaks whole year, making our summer unbearably warm and dry and now it's killing winter. I don't like winter that much but we are in desparate need of cold and wet weather. Our region will run out of water in June if this continues. I've been waiting for the pattern to change since summer 13. It's the same old story.
I think nearly everyone in Europe wants this pattern to change, and likely for very different reasons. In much of the West and North of the UK we have seen enough rain for the winter already, whereas it looks like the continent is really dry. If we could send you some of our water, we would, there's more than enough here.
It would be interesting to see a rainfall map of Europe for the past 6 weeks or so, I'd imagine there would be some major contrasts.
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28 minutes ago, cheese said:
Uh, not quite. It's been exceptionally mild here - only today and yesterday have been remotely cold, and yesterday was the first sub-10C day this month - and that was only 7C, exactly average for December.
The average for the entire month until this point is 10C which is 6 degrees above normal.
In fact, looking at the stats from Redesdale Camp, it's been very mild there too with 8 out of 12 days having highs above 10C - so I'm not sure the perception matches reality at all.
Fair enough, by northern England I meant more Cumbria/Northumberland rather than our locations. Saying that, if Redesdale is very mild then I'm obviously wrong!
In my defence, I never mentioned "below average".
It only got to around 7C in my location yesterday, and in the wind it felt quite raw. Certainly felt closer to average December than "mild".
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14 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
Indeed it isn't mild everywhere.Freezing in the snow in the far north of England.Scotland continually in the cold for at least the next 24hrs with frosts tonight.Colder air coming as far south as the midlands overnight too.
It shows the notable differences in perception between north and south at the moment.
It may be zonal but it isn't mild all the way.
The perception matches reality; the north/south temperature gradient has been stark and persistent for a while now, with the midlands south being very mild and northern England northwards being closer to average.
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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:
It struck me that the El Niños that were classified as strong to very strong 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 all had Aprils that were on the cool to cold side and or had a notable wintry episode in them after those winters.
What about March and to a lesser extent Feb, WH?
I'm thinking along the lines of a tail-end winter...
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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:
And we are still going to wait.
We could even up having three Decembers above 8.0C and yet not one at 5.9C which should be climatologically easier to achieve than 8.0C
That really is quite ridiculous. What an odd quirk!
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Wasn't warm out there today. Hovered around 7C here with a cold wind.
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Never thought my 7.2C guess could be significantly too...low!
I'm looking for a final CET of 9.3C, beating the warmest March on record (9.2C).
Would it be foolish to rule even that out?
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To me its like we are at an "all bets are off" point in regards to weather. Seems like anything can happen now.
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Just seeing the footage on BBC news. Unreal. Feel so sorry for the people affected.
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On 2 December 2015 11:56:21, Summer Sun said:
9.3c to the 1st
4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average
Just a thought, is this warmer than the figure for the 1st June? If so, has the first day of Winter ever been warmer than the first day of Summer in the same year?
Edit* Looks like we just missed out - 1st June was 9.5C.
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18 minutes ago, Nick L said:
According to the official Met Office records, no:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes
Although that 2009 event holds the 2/3/4 day records.
Edit: I now notice the note under the 24 hour record mentioning the "any 24 hour period" record, d'oh!
" The highest 24-hour total for any 24-hour period is 316.4 mm from 0000 to 2359 on 19th November 2009 at Seathwaite, Cumbria. "
Either way, if that new figure is right, then that's still a decent jump to a new record. Insane rainfall up there.
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34 minutes ago, Nick L said:
That would smash the 24 hour UK record of 279mm.
Didn't we breach 300mm in Nov 2009 somewhere in Cumbria, Nick?
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Puts it into perspective, the rain here has been relentless and annoying, yet it's not on the same level as those in Cumbria and other places are enduring with flooding.
I really hope it eases soon and the minimal amount of damage is caused. It really has been nasty for quite a while now in the NW.
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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Could parts of the country be close to this time two years ago in terms of rainfall? Cumbria seems to be in a bad way this evening, and the latest GFS shows no nd to extremely wet, mild SWly conditions, with a short-lived drier spell nexct weekend, apparently, as respite.
I'd imagine many places have surpassed it. If in remember correctly, it was more anomalously wet in the South then, so less* rain caused more problems in the form of flooding etc in places that don't normally see that much rain.
This time round, however, it's the normally wet NW England, Wales and W Scotland that are anomalously wet, so you'd think these places have seen more rain at this point than the south did in 2013/14.
*But still quite a bit!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
It only got to around 7C in my location yesterday, and in the wind it felt quite raw. Certainly felt closer to average December than "mild".
North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Woah what on earth is going on?!! Just been woke up by heavy rain lashing against my window on strong squally winds. Sounded like a hurricane out there.
Eerily quiet now...