Luke McDonnell

What puzzles me is that in some winters you can get cold conditions in both Europe and North America (e.g. December 2010) which was under negative NAO conditions but at present we have cold conditions over North America and zonal conditions over Europe and some have said that our current stormy and wet conditions are a result of the temperature contrasts over North America sending the jet stream in our direction - wouldn't you think if that was the case, you would expect stormy and wet rather than cold or snow conditions in Europe in December 2010 too? So why in some winters does North America get cold and Europe mild, others both cold and others again Europe cold and North America mild (you only have to look at February 1991 for that when Washington DC was pushing 20C? And also why is North America getting anomalously cold conditions with a neutral to positive NAO and on the back of what has been a very cold stratosphere in relation to average? I recall when we had such a cold stratosphere in December 2011 North America was not particularly cold perhaps mild in some parts. Does Stratospheric warming have more of an effect in Europe or is it more important in determining future weather in oceanic climates as opposed to continental ones? Luke

Interesting views - yes I understand the existence of life elsewhere is purely speculative as we only have one sample of life to work with which is that on Earth. But I find it difficult to believe that we are the only technological civilisation in the Universe - even if life or intelligent life was very rare it is just by a matter of statistics alone that life should occur elsewhere and probably technological intelligence. Even the Rare Earth hypothesis suggests that it is only advanced multicellular life that is rare and single celled simple life (e.g. microorganisms) could be quite common in the Galaxy - this is based on the fact that simple life started quite quickly after the formation of the Earth but the jump to multicellular life took a lot longer. But all this assumes that the conditions for the formation of life on Earth are typical if repeated across the Universe - it could for instance be possible for the jump to complex life to take place quicker on another planet due to different environmental factors unique to that planet and planetary system. I am also interested in the possibility of life in binary systems like Alpha Centuri which has 2 sun like stars and one M class dim red dwarf (technically a triple system) - do you think complex life could be possible in that system. What we have also got to take into account is that while we often assume that a technological ET species is ahead of us I also think it is a possibility that they could be behind us too - if their was a race equivalent to humans in the middle ages on a planet 20 light years away we would not know about them as they would not be transmitting any radio signals - but however assuming such a planet exists we could possibly pick up some signals about possible life from the new generation of space telescopes which are designed to look for chemical markers of life in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. Luke

Hi, I am curious about the possibility of advanced technological life elsewhere in our Galaxy/Universe. I would like to think we are not alone as far as technological intelligence is concerned but there are different schools of thought ranging from the fact that technological intelligences should be common based on the shear numbers (e.g. ~200 billion starts within the Milky Way Galaxy and billions of galaxies in the universe meaning that life supporting planets should be common) to the Rare Earth hypothesis which states that the occurrence of complex or intelligent life is very rare due to it being a result of many improbable factors (such as a large moon in relation to the size of the planet to ensure the axial tilt is stable, correct placement of the planet in the area around the star to maintain water in a liquid state, correct placement within the galaxy - the galactic centre would be unsuitable for life due to radiation, frequent supernovae and the presence of supermassive black holes and the placements of Jupiter and Saturn like gas giant planets further out than the terrestrial planets to prevent the terrestrial planets being bombarded by comets). Personally I do not subscribe to the Rare Earth theory as it seems to rule out so many possibilities - could binary star systems sustain complex/intelligent life - it was once thought that binary systems could not have planets in stable orbits but we are now discovering planets in such systems. I think the Rare Earth theory is too Earth-centric - IMO a planet does not have to be exactly life Earth to support life and many planets may have moons - the only planets in our Solar System that don't have moons are Mercury and Venus - Mars has 2 small moons - even tiny Pluto has a large moon in relation to the size of the planet. So I am just asking for your opinions about the possible existence of other technological civilisations in the Milky Way Galaxy - personally I think that there could be at least 1000 in our galaxy at this time - if not more - I know you can bring up the Fermi paradox which says that if technological life is common it should have either contacted us or visited us by now - but any other civilisation is going to be constrained by the same laws of physics as we our and I think it may be of a consequence of interstellar travel being difficult - as getting close to the speed of light can bring a lot of hazards to at least biological beings. Also we have the SETI program looking for radio transmissions but we have only been broadcasting for 100 years or so but it is likely too be at least 500 light years to the next star/planet with a technological civilisation so the chances are they have not got our broadcasts yet. Also taking into account that signals sent out from Earth may degrade over time by the inverse square law so at 500 light years they may be very difficult to detect even by the most sensitive of instruments. It will also be interesting to speculate on what an alien species of a human or more level of advancement would be like - would they be bipedal like us, would they have similar technology to us (e.g. computers, aircraft, electricity, radio etc.) and would they be likely to have a similar political or sociological structure for us - it would be interesting to get some speculation on what alien life and technology would be like. Luke

.Do you think us in Liverpool could get any? BTW it has been perishingly cold here today especially for the middle of March - and we had a few flurries of snow before coming home from work on the bus the snow did stick on the ground leaving a dandruff like covering. Luke

.Not flying though - I go to watch the planes on the top of the car park level 13 I am into my aircraft and stuff especially watching the Emirates A380 take off I am sure you have seen it on final approach from your location pretty impressive. Luke

.Sounds like a good possiblity - I am planning to go to Manchester Airport on Wednesday will see what comes maybe I will have more chance of seeing something than in Liverpool being further east. Luke

Just as a matter of interest does anyone have any update on possible snow potential for later on in the week I think we could be in with a chance of something. Luke

Do you think I will see some more snow before winter is out - I was disappointed by today considering that today was hyped up a bit in the model thread - someone posted "a severe spell looks on the way" or something along those lines and that was on Thursday so what happened to make it a poor show? We should have had quite a good snow event going by those forecasts a few days ago - were did it go pear shaped? I am not asking for the sort of snow that the likes of Boston got (3 feet) but just a few cm will do me and I will be happy - and I would like to see it stick around a bit longer than last time too - do you think I have still got a good chance of seeing some lying snow this week - according to the GFS we could see snow on Tuesday or Wednesday has anyone got the lastest on that? Just saying I normally follow this thread - don't post on it too often it is normally a good thread but sometimes like today reading it can make me feel more depressed that it not snowing LOL! Luke

Great cold spell for me - I have gone over a week with snow on the ground in Garston and it had a great finale with the very heavy snowfall last night that was indeed exciting we must have had about 8cm or so - I went to see my friend in Chester today and they seemed to have even more on the ground thier upwards of 10cm - it is melting away now with the rain but I think we may get another cold or snow spell - probably in February but we know that March and even April can deliver too (e.g. March 2006/April 2008) so plenty of time for cold and snow yet. I am also curious - I am wondering if Merseyside/Cheshire got any good snowfalls during the February 1991 cold wave - can't seem to remember anything in particular around that time but I think we would have probably had something - I think I remember Hot Cuppa saying that we got around 10cm or so in 1991 in this area from a front passing though rather than the initial easterly - does anyone recall what this area got then? Also how about January 1987 - I think Saint Snow over on TWO said Merseyside got some of the powdery snow but nowhere near as much as the SE - and very cold temperatures. Luke

.What is your temperature thier BT? I would like to see some low temps this week before we loose the snow cover - is the sky were you are clearing now? Luke

.Cheer up - you have got quite a bit of snow out of this spell - and so have I too I consider this a decent cold spell - not in the same league as December 2010 but certainly a "good" winter as far as cold and snow is concerned by the standards of the 1988-2008 modern er@! By UK standards this has been a good spell of wintery weather - my only compaint would be that there seemed to be too much cloud cover to allow very cold tempeatures at night so far in this spell - e.g. in my area the temperature has refused to go below freezing even with snow cover meaning we have had partial thaws. IMO, I would not buy any model output that shows a strong Polar Vortex (e.g. tonights ECM FI) - remember CH saying that the SSW would kill the PV? - yes the blocking resulting from the distruped Polar Vortex may be in the wrong position to have an effect on the British Isles but I would imagine that strong PV surely must be downgraded as we approach the reliable timeframe. Luke

Got quite a few cm today not a bad effort and it was cold too - also had a few drifts here about in South Liverpool so not bad - what I really like about these spells is the cold temperatures you can get with snowcover do you think we could get some pretty low temperatures over the next few nights? Backtrack - you reported that your temperature was rising does anyone know why that is we do have cloud cover but I though it was clearing a bit as the snow cleared away. Yeah - it is cold now - below freezing but I want to get it is as cold as possible so I can keep the snowcover for longer! Luke

.Sounds nice - must be warm rain though not the coldish rain that we get here even in the summer sometimes - has it been hot most of the time though and did you get any thunderstorms over there? Luke

.Oh have you gone to Australia sounds nice remember it is summer thier - did you spend Xmas in Aus btw? sound like you are having a good time are you on holiday or visiting family? Luke

Hi Spurry, Do you think that over active atlantic could have been the result of increased solar activity at the end of december and that could have resulted in the failed easterly - there must be something driving the overactive atlantic I can't seem to understand at all why we switched from a decent easterly being modelled to "locked in" zonality were you get poor charts for cold day after day for that either the backround signals must have changed dramatically or some external factor must have come into play (my theory was increased solar activity). On that note, do you think I will get snow early in the New Year - even March can deliver (e.g. 2006) or April (2008) so surely it can't be impossible, can it???!!

Hi BT, Yes even with me here in Liverpool it is unusual to go though a whole winter season without any snow cover at all - and actually we haven't had any falling snow never mind lying snow this December and to go though a season without any snow at all would be unusual. But I do think we will get something in January or February that might make up for this snowless december especially if the stratosphere comes into play (hope I haven't jinxed it as we have been pretty unlucky so far this winter) - I do think we will see at least one period with snow on the ground do you think that too BT? Also Backtrack, I was not too happy with the fact that we went from what some called "charts as good as December 2010" when we had the easterly progged in the models to what some call "the worst charts for cold since Netweather started" - how could that be the case as when we had that failed easterly the backround signals were looking good for cold - how did we go to locked in zonality from then?!!? Luke

But remember December 1988 was considerably milder than this month - one of the mildest Decembers on record - this december could still end up slightly below average and if it is above average it will only be slightly above due to the colder first half of the month - plenty of time for things to change IMO. Luke

Becoming very clear there is zero prospect of snow for most out until the 2nd week of Jan at the earliest. I honestly thought this winter would be much better than last year but low and behold still waiting for the 1st flake here,and none on the horizon. fed upsville. It's funny because even I in Liverpool saw some lying snow last December which was milder than this month - and this month I have not seen a single flake of snow falling at all - and that is not just the case in Liverpool but also in parts of the country who see snow more frequently than we do - even Scotland have not seen much snow at all. Even here in Liverpool (in which it is difficult to get snow on the ground) it is unusual to go though an entire winter season without any snow at all - normally we do get lying snow at least once during the winter season. Luke

I thought the stratospheric modelling is more stable than the trop modelling and therefore more stable and less liable to big changes? Luke

Hi Nick, What do you think it the main driver of the current pattern at the moment? And if at the time of the failed easterly the backround signals were in support of this then how did the backround signals change for us to get a protracted zonal period after the easterly imploded? Luke

Agree with you on that one - even the likes of 1981/82 had a mildish zonal period between the 2 main cold spells and most decembers of the 1980s were mild and/or zonal even if they were followed by cold weather in January and February (e.g. 1985 and 1987). And even back in the likes of the 50s and 60s we still at a lot of mild winter months - its just that the famous winter of 1962/63 occured then that that period really stood out. Luke

Don't worry - remember Mid January is well into FI - if FI was showing cold out until mid January we would have posts saying "exercise caution" or "it's FI, not going to happen like that". Remember everything is liable to change that far out - if Easterlies can implode (or go right) in the semi reliable timeframe then surely we can't rely on an FI chart 3 weeks off. Also we have got that major wild card of the stratosphere that may mean a prolonged protracted zonal period is not as "nailed on" as some think. The worrying thing is though you are normally one of the more optimistic posters on here when it comes to cold and snow - and one of the more knowledgeable - you know thinks must be pretty bad when the mainly optimistic posters become pessimistic (remember Steve M going over to the pessimistic side and getting upset about the failed easterly - now that was a bad indicator). Luke

Don't be ridiculous - it is funny and it amazes me how some people still cling to the "moderrn winter" theory after we had december 2010 - the coldest December for a century with the coldest pre Christmas period on record and 2009-10 too - which was the coldest winter since 1978-79 - yes you said that on average February has been warmer but if we can get the coldest December for 100 years then I can't see anything preventing us getting the coldest February for 100 years or even the coldest March for 100 years - you quote that March has been snowless for your location since 2000 but in March 2006 we got a good fall in March 2006 in Liverpool and remember any snow in my location is hard to come by - we even got a fall in April 2008. So you are saying the moderrn winter is more likely to effect the later part of winter than the ealier part of it? Anyway happy christmas to you all and lets hope for some good snow in the new year I would like to see some good shots at cold and I think what is going on in the stratosphere is promising and could help to provide a good cold spell. Luke

.See what you mean but I don't think they were blips how did we get those winters in the first place especially in the modern eraa? What you have got to remember is that December 2010 was the coldest December in 100 years so the coldest december in the lifetimes of anyone on here and probably most of your parent's lifetimes too and yet we still preach this modern er@ nonsense LOL. If we can get the coldest December in our lifetimes we could certainly get a winter as cold as 1962-63 in my lifetime and I do believe I will see that in my lifetime. Luke

You are saying that you do agree with the "modernn winter" theory but do you think that it could be that we have hit a turning point as far as our winter synoptics are concerned since 2008 or do you think the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 etc. where just blips and normal service has resumed say this winter or last - and why after the failed easterly did we get this zonal pattern we are in I do find it strange given the teleconnections. Personally I do not subscribe to the MW theory as I do think it is cyclical - why do you buy the MW theory - Ian I remember him quoting that he thought that a 1995-16 would no longer be possible before 2008 and then we got a colder winter than 1995-96 followed by the coldest december for 100 years surely that should prove that there is no such thing as a moddern winter. And also - we got decent cold spells even in the modernn era aswell - remember the likes of 1991, December 2000, 1995-96 etc. all occured in this epoch - the theory is certianly dead and buried now IMO we may have man made global warming influencing things (personally I am sceptical) but climate changes over periods of hundereds of years, a period of 2 decades is a short period of time in climatic terms. Luke