karlos1983

I'll take the Op please over the GFS(P), which leaves a PV lobe over Greenland and that low over Newfoundland (I think), surely destined for our shores. FI I know.

UKMO and GFS not a million miles away from each other at 144 it has to be said

UKMO doesn't want to let the Atlantic in With cooler 850's heading west Didn't see that coming from UKMO must admit.

This is worth a watch. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsvideosmobile.php

That really is a good post and should go some way hopefully of halting people comparing this winter to last, the difference is huge, the PV as illustrated is in a right mess compared to last year at the same time. Plus other factors in our favour which can be seen in another discussion room. It is going to be fascinating model watching in the coming weeks, cant wait.

Hey Frosty, good to see you posting, your optimism is missed in here from my point of view!! Don't be too downbeat, all the signals regardless of what the MetO have to say imo, point to a completely different winter to last year. Drop into the Strat thread for example. Come Mid December I think this room will be buzzing! Lets not forget it is still November (Autumn) and already we have had some excitement from the models, didn't come off this time, but here's to the next bite at the cherry Karl

Nice and Bartlett..... Do those words go together in winter?

Nice precip spike as well

Hi gtltw I'm not concerned at all by the lack of uppers, I have a lot of confidence in this winter season being completely different to last year, following the Strat forum, Eurasia snow cover, state of the PV etc. the fact we are showing these charts now, in November is extremely encouraging. Even if they weren't as they are, I still wouldn't be that concerned. It's all good!

GFS (P) certainly an improvement on the 06z

That may well be, but for me it's all about getting the heights in the right places now, hopefully the cold uppers will follow.

UKMO @ +144 looks better to me. Our low seems to be slipping off the SE?

Steady +120 GFS

I thought for my own benefit I would like to see what the verification was like for the GFS and the ECM @ days 7 and 8. so as I've done it, I'll share it. You can cast your own votes as to which model gets closer to what actually hapened on this day, both models do pretty well at day 7 it has to be said, before they both lose it a bit at day 8, particularly GFS. which will please some members no doubt!! GFS Day 7 Actual ECM Day 7 Actual GFS Day 8 Actual ECM Day 8 Actual Hopefully that comes out ok.... Both appear to have been far too progressive imo.?

Higher the better/stronger Ali

Bank 😠Nice lines coming straight up from the mid Atlantic to the west of Greenland. Gotta love a pub special.

Purga, It is clear for all too see with these charts that everything is in the balance and actually all pointers are that The mid term and winter in general is looking better from a cold perspective. Take a look at the Strat thread while your at it. Emphasis on "take a look"

In a word - Blocky ! I would say it's almost impossible for the UK not to hit the cold if that verifies

What a run from the ECM. However it's going to need some friends to join that party before I even consider trusting it again after "That ECM". Very nice to see all the same. The uppers are irrelevant, get that in place and cold uppers WILL follow!

With all that's going on, and with the setup looking really good for coldies (potentially) and with support from the Strat in terms of warming, I am quite optimistic about the 2nd half of November and the first 3rd of Winter in general. Just remember, TELL NOBODY!!

Looks pretty night and day to me actually Purga and Last Year

liking that site a lot. Cheers Matt.

Brain is already in the Bar, come 4:30 I'll have a drink for everyone in the LakeYard overlooking Poole Bay, happy days

What a beautiful day it is. Sun always shines on my birthday, which is good because I'm in sulk mode, dirty 30's

I'm pretty certain it was chucking those sort of charts last year and nothing came of it. That model should be taken with a lorry load of salt! I can't find the Archive for 2013/2014 winter, but I'm convinced it was horrendous in its long term modelling, which should come as no surprise really.