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karlos1983

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Posts posted by karlos1983

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    Just catching up with the evening outputs which to be frank are underwhelming after Friday .

    Just too much energy spilling east . There were some signs earlier that the energy would split with some heading se .

    But the PV blob looks remorseless going by the day ten means .

    The UKMO tries to split the energy but still finds an annoying shortwave to the nw .

    It’s a bit frustrating in all honesty that the renewed upstream energy decides to turn up after downing a whole lot of steroids !

    At least there’s a week of more interesting weather before the crapola hits the fan .

    And although disappointing to see the block up sticks at the first sign of trouble some will at least see some snow and likely the odd surprise along the way .

    I’d give it till tomorrow to see if we could just squeeze out less energy upstream .

    It’s still just that far out in timeframe to hope for some changes .

     

    Crapola hits the fan 🤣 top filtering Nick 🤝

    I think it’s widely accepted that week 2 is going to see a return to milder conditions. It’s after that now that attentions are probably already turning too. 
     

    BUT! It would be nice if Tuesday into Wednesday does deliver, although it’s looking increasingly unlikely, because who knows where the blocking will setup, for sure it will somewhere, but it’s high risk, especially for the southern contingent. 
     

    But for me, end of next week the writing is on the wall, a reset of sorts before season 2! 😬 🤞🏻

     

     

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    While some well look to the following weekend for what happens next I'm still paying attention to the channel low for mid week, still very much in the balance

    UKMO det considers the low will hit northern France and miss the south entirely.

    Quick look at mogreps suggests its not clear cut. Half the 850's go above freezing in plymouth suggesting the low will push further north. A few go above in Brighton. Again look at Cardiff a couple of runs head above 0 with say 40% rising from -10's towards but not above 0. Same for Birmingham.  Still a chance the south will get the clear see through typesnow with the purple patch along the M4.   As such those discounting the channel low may yet be surprised as its not a done deal by any means.

     

    mogreps850birmingham.png

    mogreps850brighton.png

    mogreps850cardiff.png

    mogreps850plymouth.png

    Agreed, this is far from done, I think it will be a struggle to get this system further north than the M4 ish now, most likely scenario is it just misses the south coast, but there’s definitely interest for folk down south, no question about it. 
     

    if the ECM is showing it then it’s a distinct possibility, need a couple more to come on board for it to become a probability…..  TBC 

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    When can you cume over? I'm getting desperate ...

    “Trees ‘n’ bushes we’re your mushes”

    that’s my company name when I get round to opening a landscaping business 😜

    cold has drawn me back, not sure my sanity can take the mod thread yet, I’ll break myself back into the NW community gently I think! It’s been a while 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
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