karlos1983

As Richard would say... it’s the hope that kills me

These marginal events can be high risk high reward! There will be cold undercutting. Large areas of our region still very much in with a decent shout at a snow event.

Well..... as I was saying Jay it’s not impossible or improbable

Personally I’d be more nervous if I were under the warning now! As they have a habit of moving in these setups... but yeah it’s not ideal.

With the 528 Dam line straddling the south, cold uppers close by and plenty of moisture, the potential is definitely there imo. Take 4pm for example on the gfs low to our south, 850’s -4/-5. Some possibly heavy ppn in light winds! I would say a high chance of evaporative cooling coming into play as a minimum. So although a widespread snow event doesn’t look to likely right now, I think there is a high chance some will do well out of this. It’s a shame we didn’t have cold air in place. A classic channel low really is when we’ve had cold continental air in place and a channel low pushes up against any block. This is a different animal.

Well very interesting, but here’s some factual information: “those BBC graphics are showing EC12z deterministic and yes, it really has v little snow, hence the forecast *as it stands*?? Also bbc app updates using actual intervention at nearer lead times; rest is primarily EC based BUT represents ensemble blend rather than pure deterministic. It also uses algorithm for temps to be site specific based on historic climatology in specific set-ups. Temps have proved more accurate versus UKMO 'best data' blend used before.”

This low won’t even have formed in 24 hours time, so don’t expect anything to firm up until at least Monday. I’d ignore the mod thread as it’s IMBY Central! We should have a better idea of the general track tomorrow afternoon maybe, I.e the cone of uncertainty will narrow a bit. Until then I’d put it to the back of your mind to avoid disappointment, the odds favour disappointment for now imo..

ECM is.... interesting

Looks more like the Russian high nosing in over scandi as apposed to true scandi Heights.

Weeks 2&3 look good week 4 looks a bit west based but don’t worry week 6 all good

GAME ON?

This thread is absolutely hilarious sometimes! Today really has been quite something to behold heres an explanation in song

GFS not a million miles away fro the UKMO at +144

Never mind that Shaky, look North!

I think we’ll run with “Trend setter”

Bit of a pub special that! Cracking stuff and not the first time we’ve seen the gfs chuck that sort of run out in the low res over the past couple of days. It’s picking up on something for sure, let’s hope that’s the watered down version ??? That reminded me of march 2018 but with staying power!! How cold

Should be ok in the end, some half decent WAA heading up west Greenland

I’m slightly concerned the next frame could be very West Based -NAO

No worries, thought I’d answer rather than skip past your post

Decent ecm at 120

These are model based though. Radar is correct in terms of ppn, but the ppn type is determined by the conditions that were predicted at that time.

Yeah i heard about that, really sad news . Cardiff don't seem destined to sign anyone this window do they

You must be due a foot mate

err have you read any of the posts Jay