karlos1983

you can't deny the 06 GFS is remarkably similar to its 00z run

it doesn't look good, the low is heading north I really think the GFS has lost the plot comletely. Time will tell, if not I risk losing the plot completely!

in that order?

I'm sorry but it's not a case of GFS vs ECM..... its GFS vs pretty much every model going. right now I don't trust any of them, but if I have to back 2 models at D5 it would be the UKMO and ECM, in that order.

It's nothing like the GFS though.. probably just delays the coldest air arriving. The GFS has a much deeper feature by the same time stamps ICON GFS

looks like the gfs has been to a party and is now in complete isolation!! GFS was the first model I viewed with my coffee at 7:45am and I almost made it Irish as I got that sinking feeling. I’ll be honest I was pleasantly shocked when one by one all other models in the GEM, ICON, UKMO and the ECM showed the cold spell still very much on! Surely the gfs will begin to tow the line starting with the 06z? Those 4 can’t all be wrong at such short range surely?

Not even after a promised easterly only to be ripped away by “that ECM” at +72. Not that I’m bitter about that still...

Cheers Nick, mainly been lurking this year for multitude of boring reasons. Same boat with Covid fingers though thanks for the stats, that’s interesting and I think we can claim D6 just about for the 18z show tonight. The way it blows that low up really doesn’t look right to me, but famous last words ? Fingers crossed for the 00z.

Hi Nick, hope you’re keeping well? Any idea what the 18z performing like in the stats? Do they break it down by run or just by model?

Let’s be honest, it won’t be the first pub run to disappear by morning. I Take some comfort in that. who’s setting their alarm for 4am

Heights are on the move, cracking ending possibly on the cards here.

oh my, brace yourselves. fl beauty incoming

Mean looks closer to UKMO than it’s operational to me

I think the gfs has broken all lockdown laws, broken into the pub and been on a proper sesh!!

Upgrade or trend away from cold... which one is it the newbies scream.? personally I’d say it’s neither, short term it’s been quite a consistent picture for the end of the week, we are in the almost cold enough for all category, but it’s going to feel a lot colder than of late. Question remains where we go next week, but currently a mild outlook looks unlikely, as does anything remarkably cold & snowy. lamp posts definitely on standby for some as we approach the end of the week though. That’s good news for week 1 of Winter in my book

6.9c & 72mm

Hi Dorset, My Nematodes arrived on Friday and they are in the fridge. I also plan to do it this week, as you say the weather looks good with nights not dropping below 7 or 8C. seems the best time to apply is in the evening from what I’ve been reading? Good luck with yours, I hope you manage to salvage your lawn.

That’s plenty warm enough then, thanks v much

Hi everyone I hope you’re all keeping safe and are in good health? I’m after some help. I’ve got an infestation of leather jackets in my 1 year old Lawn I’ve ordered and received parasites that will hunt them down and kill them, but I can’t apply it until soil temperature is at least 10c. Has anyone got an accurate reading for my general geographical location? thanks Karlos

Hmmm, most snow events happen in late Feb/March aided by a weakened PV, that’s not looking likely anytime soon. It’s highly probable this year’s breakdown will be a late one given the strength of that beastly PV! northwesterly colder than normal airflow seems our only straws to clutch on this winter. Don’t worry though, next winter ️

Oh well, that’ll teach me for digging the sledge out in November. I take full responsibility

No, this is probably the quietest I’ve ever been on this forum, because from every angle this winter looked doomed until at least Jan & that’s progressed through January now.... so you can bet your bottom dollar, just as we want spring...... it’ll snow

This crops up every year and tickles me pink! i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden. march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either.. snow can stick in March

Flat as a pancake More up and downs than the Jet stream at present! Shaky.... Relax you will pull a muscle

yup I agree. Actually the UKMO & ECM are not that dissimilar at +144 and by D8 on the ECM you wouldn't kick that out of bed would you?