karlos1983

Well maybe to coastal regions of the East/ south east, certainly wouldn't penetrate to far inland. I think if we tapped into an easterly, for it to give a widespread outbreak of cold, we want to be seeing some decent pooling on the continent of -15 uppers. 0 or -5 aint gonna cut it. imo anyway

Lack of any significant cold over the continent though!

That is a little misleading Ali, the last paragraph on the long range fcst (4th-18th) reads " Looking towards the second week of January there is a chance that pressure will rise in the south bringing more settled and drier, but perhaps colder conditions. However, unsettled weather is expected to continue in the north." Although I am a little confused as to how High Pressure in the south with unsettled conditions in the north would bring anything of a cold nature....... EDIT: and shuffling through the GEFS Purbs is somewhat of a depressing waste of time, none paint a particularly cold picture..

A fantastic read, really enjoyed it. So much effort has clearly gone into it. Looking forward to an interesting winter ahead. Thank you

Yes, if you look hard enough, just off the coasts of Britain, you can see the Icy waters closing in on us, oh no hang on, its the waves breaking....

This may be a stupid question. But how on earth does the majority of the United states and north Mexico, the UK and pretty much all of North West Europe manage to be below or well below average in terms of temperatures, when everywhere around the said locations is show positive values? more especially areas north/North West/North East of the mentioned? where is the cold coming from? Presumably it is just because it's a long range average? Then again, I guess Canada, and north of us as well as Russia, warmer overall is still Cold in winter. I'll have another cup of coffee before I post in the morning next time it think

I've gone 50/50, way to early. Confkers are still on the trees

absolutely bucketing it down here. and has been for a while. I bet the roads are atrocious! Bournemouth Gardens have flooded. The rain band appears to be pivoting right on top of us. Could be some big totals IMBY. Wish i had my weather station up and working after my recent move! Might need a canoe to get out of work at this rate

feeling very pleasant out

You can't beat the Bournemouth Airshow when the sun is out and the temperature pleasantly warm, it;'s a sight to behold. Last year from memory was glorious.

seen a few tweets today saying if today is good for you weather wise, then tomorrow will be poor and if today is poor tomorrow will be good, a good old east west split then flip.My take on it however, if you happen to be in the central zone, its crap today and it will be worse tomorrow! Basically that's an IMBY forecast.

GFS 06z looking very similar to it's 00z out to +120

Not a cool ECM chart at +120, yes maybe the hottest air will be pushed East by the weekend, but it was only really yesterday that gave us a tease of longevity, the models were quite consistent that it would not be mega hot, for a sustained period. At least that's how I remember it.

Could see flights grounded in that heat

All for heat and the extremes, but the thought of being at the F1 at Silverstone next week in that heat is pretty daunting. 30c ok, but much above no thanks. Elderly and vulnerable could be in real trouble

I'm going to say, although great charts and possibly not the most reliable source, I really hope that does not happen. Sleeping could be somewhat difficult. at 2am .....

I'll be in a tent in a field at Silverstone from Thursday. Coolant in hand

Next week is looking crazy! Not often you see the Mad Thread that busy at this time of year.

Yes, it's looking Hot for Thursday and Friday. Better check my tent for leaks

I'm heading to the British Grand Prix in 9 days time along with Thousands of others. Weather will play a big part in not only the result of the Race but the overall enjoyment of the event and more importantly preparation of what to take to not let the weather spoil it, or to enhance the experience. So who can give me an idea of what weather we expect as planning is well and truly underway! Thank you!

I hope your right knocker, I'm off to the British GP 2nd-5th July & i really don't fancy being knee deep in mud.

Some very impressive lightning out there. ppn intensity picking up now as well. You can almost feel the energy. Would appear we are in a pretty good spot

Massive flash of lightning and the longest rumble of thunder ever right here. Wow

Very dark to the south, impressive looking rain band.

such a shame we couldn't see this sort of output in Jan/Feb. Not idealistic for late April. Be interesting though that's for sure