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metaltron

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Everything posted by metaltron

  1. metaltron
    When the high is dragging in the -15 uppers, of course. The isobars are not close enough together because the high is too far north - it's a disgrace really!
  2. metaltron
    An enjoyable run so far, definitely a shift toward the UKMO from the GFS tonight, but thankfully not a total backtrack. Note how the area of high pressure sat over the UK on the GFS helps funnel the cold further south - the UKMO makes much less of this. The ECM is extreme in the other direction- it leaves too much high pressure over the UK and the cold goes too far south!
  3. metaltron
    UKMO making me nervous now; gone from hero to zero with a risk of the cold air being too far north. GFS looks great!
  4. metaltron
    GFS looks risky, with the centre of the high pressure far away to the north. UKMO and GFS very different, wouldn't mind a middle ground!
  5. metaltron
    To my eye it doesn't look like the shortwaves are the issue, rather that the high is too far north and the orientation is wrong. The high being too far north is my biggest worry looking at the GEFS ensembles. If we can get the high further south (ie over central Scandi, not the Azores!) and then retrogress it towards Greenland then I think it will drag the cold pool with it.
  6. metaltron
    It looks like the Genoa low got caught up in the easterly, which created that low.
  7. metaltron
    Further to my previous comment, note how a lobe of the polar vortex moves around the arctic high until it is over the Scandi high; pushing it further south.
  8. metaltron
    That lobe of the polar vortex that moves in from the east and over the top of the Scandi ridge between T72 and T96 is doing us no favours; it squashed the ridge on the ECM 00z as well, but on that run the Scandi High held on.
  9. metaltron
    Don't forget the JMA. If anything I'd say its been even more consistent with the trigger low than the ICON; no wonder the Met Office are on board!
  10. metaltron
    I have huge respect for the ECM due to its superior modelling of the troposphere/stratosphere interactions, and what a win we have here for the ECM vs GFS,UKMO etc !! #IStandWithTheICON Easterly incoming!
  11. metaltron
    Well after this hit and run easterly, with a high pressure cell flying over Scandinavia before being sucked into the Russian high, I'm struggling to see much to be positive about in the EC ensembles (apart from the generally below average picture) - not a single ensemble run today, from the ECM, has managed to deliver maximum daily temperatures of -5 for de Bilt - you'd imagine if there was a serious chance of an easterly, then at least one run would manage it in a 15 day period.
  12. metaltron
    2.0C please
  13. metaltron
    The ICON 18z still doesn't look great. The Azores high is further east at 96z. It's not awful but it will be pretty disappointing if it's proved correct.
  14. metaltron
    My impression has been that the UKMO has been awful this winter, especially at T144, but hopefully its right today! Anybody remember the Mid-Atlantic cut off low drama last January when the UKMO trumped the GFS/ECM, to coldies' despair, after Knocker said the UKMO looked the more likely evolution? So it is possible that the UKMO can be right against the ECM/GFS, but I think everybody would like to see the ECM agreeing later on.
  15. metaltron
    Hopefully we can see some amplification in the Altantic in the next few frames with more of the vortex relocating to the east of the Sceuro high.
  16. metaltron
    3.5C
  17. metaltron
    4.9C, please.
  18. metaltron
    6.6c
  19. metaltron
    15.2C please
  20. metaltron
    Ah ok so if the control and op are different then ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by resolution, whereas if they are similar the ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by starting data. Think I've got it. Thanks!
  21. metaltron
    The GFS control run is more amplified than the OP this morning. I read here a few days ago that the control has the same starting data as the op but with lower resolution. So is the control meant to point out possible errors in low resolution? For example today the low resolution version of the same starting data is more amplified, so should we expect the ensembles to be biased towards amplification this morning?
  22. metaltron
    Yep at last
  23. metaltron
    I live in Croxley too but snow is really disappointing, I've got 2cm in garden at the moment
  24. metaltron
    Sorry but what is 1mm in cm of snow? Thank you. Really light snow here for last 3 hours, hope it picks up
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