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metaltron

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Posts posted by metaltron

  1. 1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    Not the same though can be said for the storm tonight. I think the main reason that the start of the week showed not much of a feature is it deepened after the uk. 

    Where as yesterday we saw the idea and continued support of it deepening slightly earlier and this brings stronger winds. 

    I don't like the look of the front sweeping east from around midnight, could really increase the winds as it clears through 

     

    The GFS was showing a deeper storm for tonight before it capitulated a few days ago. 

    • Like 1
  2. I can't remember many of the months but out of the ones I remember:

    January 2010 - snowy

    February 2012 - snowy

    March 2018 - snowy

    April 2016 - remembered for the hail and snow showers late in the month

    May 2018 - sunny

    June 2017 - hot

    July 2014 - some great thunderstorms

    August 2017 - remembered for a whole day of heavy rain

    September 2016 - thunderstorms near Manchester which cancelled a Champions League match

    October 2012 - colder than average

    November 2016 - cold last week

    December 2010 - snowy (and my favourite month of the decade so far)

     

     

     

  3. The models are all over the shop with this low approaching from the south - the GFS has a stronger low than on its 6z run whereas the UKMO shifts the low south when compared to it's 12z run yesterday. We could play "pin the tail on Bertha" again, but I fear emotions would be too high in the winter! Imagine handing out the prize to the person who predicted the low would be over Scotland on Friday!

  4. 31 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

    WHY I BELIEVE THAT THE GFS OUTPUT FOR WEEK 2 WAS COMPLETELY WRONG

    My post yesterday (now buried on page 2 of this thread) compared the run into to the predicted upcoming cold spell to some earlier severe spells dating back to 1947 and up to 2013. I will make further reference to the March 2013 spell towards the end of this post when I compare it to the current and predicted set up. I intend to demonstrate with plenty of evidence why I feel that the GFS is being far too progressive in bringing back the Atlantic after the turn of the month. In fact, I do not necessarily see this happening until well after mid-March, although one or two very brief less cold interludes can never be completely ruled out. This was based on the previous few runs up to today's 12z. I see that the 18z (which rolled out while I was writing up this post) has a slightly colder solution again but still ends with less cold uppers over the UK and is a long way from the 12z ECM and UKMO solutions.. 

     

    Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period:

    19621.thumb.png.4adda07b5eeeff3a2ae8236ff0d56142.png19622.thumb.png.510e600a9487b8b8b5760707abd6aed3.png19623.thumb.png.d51ec9bdd3182c1acf7b6398d3f67a0c.png19624.thumb.png.06e8ff4818a1abc51cec5214c0fd6dab.png

     

    Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!):

    https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/

    Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!). 

    19624.png

    • Like 5
  5. Ugh, I'm finding the MOD thread pretty intolerable today; it wouldn't be half as bad if there wasn't such overconfidence this morning, with anybody showing some caution being shut down almost immediately. Bluearmy was the star of the thread this morning, has to be said. 

    On a more optimistic note, I've been worried for a few days that the Met Office's own models were predicting the cold to be shifted south into France. However, today there seems to be a shift of tone and I think their own models might have upgraded the cold potential. (Also an encouraging post from Carinthian just now, pointing out that their model is showing the cold moving faster west than some models are predicting.)

  6. 5 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

    If you think some in the mod thread have entered ramp mode;

     
    Found while looking for met office twitter.

     

    A viewer tweeted in today, saying that he heard that 10 feet of snow was on the way; don't worry it isn't, but there could be a few light flurries in eastern coastal regions.

  7. 11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    I know this is the model thread - but have to challenge you on this: where in the MetO forecast does it suggest a move south? I cant see it. They have tweaked the text at lunchtime today to be a bit more region specific (the SW gets a mention!!) but nothing else.

    In terms of model support for a move south - also don't really see it. This excellent chart for 100hpa winds from Hannah Attard shows very clearly the latitude of the block and the trough slamming through the UK.

    100_nh_31.png

     

    All good.

    See my follow up- but briefly, yes I think most things are looking great, but I think the Met Office will be cautious until solutions such as those found in Cluster 2 disappear. So I think they are about as confident as the ECM ensembles are about the upcoming beasterly (so around 70%). I don't think you are challenging me though, since I almost wholly agree with your posts!! Just hope everything falls into place!

    • Like 8
  8. 3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Why do you say that ? Every model output I have seen doesn't indicate this . The ENS are excellent

    Just the tone of some of the messages we are getting from the professionals (say through Twitter). I like to think it's just them being professional and not being drawn into making a forecast too early, but it could be that one of the Met Office's homegrown models is showing the cold travelling a more NE-SW trajectory. Comparing the 6z to 0z we can see some differences to our southwest with the 6z being slightly less amplified; so that's why I called the 6z a backtrack. Luckily the 00z ECM was a great run, but it is a lot closer to deflecting the cold too far south than the GFS 00z was!

     

    gfs12.thumb.png.32427011ff3db775fc782e7b70b45a71.pnggfs6.thumb.png.1c75a5e3dc79a6093cc6c4f2676e569d.png

     

    I am still very optimistic though, even though I may not sound it! 

    • Like 1
  9. This thread title is really going to rub it in for the next few weeks if it all implodes later! I sense that the Met Office believe the real cold air going south is a real possibility and Cluster 2 from the ECM ensembles shows that this is still on the table. Also a backtrack from the GFS 6z towards the ECM solution (would have been more comforting if the GFS stuck more closely to its morning output!). Nevertheless, I do think a classic easterly, like Feb 1991, is the most likely option, based on the data we have freely available. Fingers and toes crossed for tonight's runs!

    • Like 1
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