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  1. The models are all over the shop with this low approaching from the south - the GFS has a stronger low than on its 6z run whereas the UKMO shifts the low south when compared to it's 12z run yesterday. We could play "pin the tail on Bertha" again, but I fear emotions would be too high in the winter! Imagine handing out the prize to the person who predicted the low would be over Scotland on Friday!
  2. For @nick sussex; a preview of the most severe and prolonged vague de froid for France since 1971, courtesy of the ECM:
  3. You should make a Twitter account and correct it, I reckon...
  4. Are areas in the west of East Anglia, such as Cambridge, likely to be dry in this setup? Certainly, looks that way from the models; we get the least snow in the whole country! Does anybody remember what is was like in Cambridge in past easterly spells like Feb 91?
  5. Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period: Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!): https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/ Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!).
  6. Ugh, I'm finding the MOD thread pretty intolerable today; it wouldn't be half as bad if there wasn't such overconfidence this morning, with anybody showing some caution being shut down almost immediately. Bluearmy was the star of the thread this morning, has to be said. On a more optimistic note, I've been worried for a few days that the Met Office's own models were predicting the cold to be shifted south into France. However, today there seems to be a shift of tone and I think their own models might have upgraded the cold potential. (Also an encouraging post from Carinthian just now, pointing out that their model is showing the cold moving faster west than some models are predicting.)
  7. A viewer tweeted in today, saying that he heard that 10 feet of snow was on the way; don't worry it isn't, but there could be a few light flurries in eastern coastal regions.
  8. See my follow up- but briefly, yes I think most things are looking great, but I think the Met Office will be cautious until solutions such as those found in Cluster 2 disappear. So I think they are about as confident as the ECM ensembles are about the upcoming beasterly (so around 70%). I don't think you are challenging me though, since I almost wholly agree with your posts!! Just hope everything falls into place!
  9. Just the tone of some of the messages we are getting from the professionals (say through Twitter). I like to think it's just them being professional and not being drawn into making a forecast too early, but it could be that one of the Met Office's homegrown models is showing the cold travelling a more NE-SW trajectory. Comparing the 6z to 0z we can see some differences to our southwest with the 6z being slightly less amplified; so that's why I called the 6z a backtrack. Luckily the 00z ECM was a great run, but it is a lot closer to deflecting the cold too far south than the GFS 00z was! I am still very optimistic though, even though I may not sound it!
  10. This thread title is really going to rub it in for the next few weeks if it all implodes later! I sense that the Met Office believe the real cold air going south is a real possibility and Cluster 2 from the ECM ensembles shows that this is still on the table. Also a backtrack from the GFS 6z towards the ECM solution (would have been more comforting if the GFS stuck more closely to its morning output!). Nevertheless, I do think a classic easterly, like Feb 1991, is the most likely option, based on the data we have freely available. Fingers and toes crossed for tonight's runs!
  11. When the high is dragging in the -15 uppers, of course. The isobars are not close enough together because the high is too far north - it's a disgrace really!
  12. An enjoyable run so far, definitely a shift toward the UKMO from the GFS tonight, but thankfully not a total backtrack. Note how the area of high pressure sat over the UK on the GFS helps funnel the cold further south - the UKMO makes much less of this. The ECM is extreme in the other direction- it leaves too much high pressure over the UK and the cold goes too far south!
  13. UKMO making me nervous now; gone from hero to zero with a risk of the cold air being too far north. GFS looks great!
  14. GFS looks risky, with the centre of the high pressure far away to the north. UKMO and GFS very different, wouldn't mind a middle ground!