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  1. The GFS was showing a deeper storm for tonight before it capitulated a few days ago.
  2. I can't remember many of the months but out of the ones I remember: January 2010 - snowy February 2012 - snowy March 2018 - snowy April 2016 - remembered for the hail and snow showers late in the month May 2018 - sunny June 2017 - hot July 2014 - some great thunderstorms August 2017 - remembered for a whole day of heavy rain September 2016 - thunderstorms near Manchester which cancelled a Champions League match October 2012 - colder than average November 2016 - cold last week December 2010 - snowy (and my favourite month of the decade so far)
  3. Can I change my 18.0C guess to a late 19.3C?
  4. The models are all over the shop with this low approaching from the south - the GFS has a stronger low than on its 6z run whereas the UKMO shifts the low south when compared to it's 12z run yesterday. We could play "pin the tail on Bertha" again, but I fear emotions would be too high in the winter! Imagine handing out the prize to the person who predicted the low would be over Scotland on Friday!
  5. For @nick sussex; a preview of the most severe and prolonged vague de froid for France since 1971, courtesy of the ECM:
  6. You should make a Twitter account and correct it, I reckon...
  7. Are areas in the west of East Anglia, such as Cambridge, likely to be dry in this setup? Certainly, looks that way from the models; we get the least snow in the whole country! Does anybody remember what is was like in Cambridge in past easterly spells like Feb 91?
  8. Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period: Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!): https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/ Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!).