Dan the Man
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Posts posted by Dan the Man
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Forecast soundings suggest the potential for MLCAPE on the order of 1,000-1,500 J/kg generally, but perhaps locally 2,000 J/kg where higher dewpoints exist, with cloud tops potentially to 40,000ft (-60C or colder). While flow aloft will be fairly weak (~15kts at 500hPa, for example) a reasonable degree of low-level wind shear is evident with slightly backed near-surface winds. Despite limited shear, the magnitude of instability may be sufficient for the strongest cells to become better organised with potential for some transient supercell characteristics.
This is a ramposauras-rex.
I'm actually flying out of Heathrow at 4pm today, heading SE - could be a little interesting!
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Did anyone catch the BBC Look East and national weather forecasts about an hour ago - it could not have been more different two forecasts just 2 minutes apart!
How are the prospects looking for Bedfordshire?
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8 minutes ago, Snowonder said:
Backbuilding now in Bedford. First thunder just now.
No lightning that I've seen though - pretty intense rain which I was caught in. A nice drink for the plants.
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Brief power loss here in central Bedfordshire.
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Just seen a picture of someone from Thaxted, Essex reporting 3cm hail.
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Its been rumbling here in C Beds for a good hour or so, but no lightning visible or rain yet... I don't suspect it'll be too long.
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Minimal snow here in Mid Beds. A light dusting overnight and some 1/10 dandruff falling right now.
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So rather than trawling through a million posts, what are the current indications for the west of the region? I know it's more of a nowcast scenario, but do I expect in Bedfordshire to gain more than 1-2 inches? Or is the system tracking any further north or west?
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What is the expectation for the west of the region for the rest of the day? Around 2-3cm here so far at least.
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16 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Are we seeing the front pivot.. Looking near Worcester. In which case, looks like Northampton / Milton Keynes / possibly Cambridge could be the sweet spot today.
After being stormed and snow starved for most of the last 12 months, finally...
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3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
Good lord . . .
Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...
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3 minutes ago, matt111 said:
TOUCHDOWN!
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38 minutes ago, Jamiee said:
Quite the radar snap.
Is that major blob going to remain electrical when it comes this way?
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Must be plenty happening around the STN area - lots of aircraft have just broken off their approaches and sitting in holding patterns.
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Thunder now here in mid Beds, but doesn't seem to be many sferics from this system at all.
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Decent light show now here in mid Beds after the previous cells this evening seemed to pass us by.
A number of aircraft in a holding pattern away from LTN too right now because of the lingering cell over the field.
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Those echoes north of Luton - well I'm pretty much directly underneath and it's producing nothing?
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Clouds looking very mean over Southampton now.
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15 minutes ago, Alderc said:
28C and 20C dew point now. Its super heavy outside.
Yet England can't get a wicket in these conditions!
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Looks like the weather isn't far away from The Rose Bowl in Southampton.
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Lots of weather avoidance going on, on the STN and LTN approaches. Virtually nothing in the sky nearby at the moment.
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Proper storm now in Mid Beds. Close lightning too.
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Storm becoming more pronounced over the last 10-15m here in Mid Beds. Still not more than a 4/10 at the moment.
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Good morning everyone - terrible nights sleep. Loving the cooler and fresher conditions this morning - its a godsend!
Conditions prime once again, but more towards the South Midlands and South & East England today.
If there was an additional windshear ingredient...
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Constant rumbling here - how quickly this cell popped up is quite something.