Pembs458
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Everything posted by Pembs458
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This is painful radar watching. Precipitation is so close, but seems to have come to a halt!
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Still loads of uncertainty even for Thursday night/Friday. Wouldn’t rule it out completely just yet. One thing that is certain, it’ll be different again in the morning.
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I can feel the frustration in here. These current Synoptics are rare and had the potential to deliver a memorable snow event. We would need a big turnaround now to see anything noteworthy, but still a chance of some small accumulations. That would make it 3 snow events with lying snow here this winter so far, all being just a small covering, but much better than anything we’ve had here since storm Emma back in 2018.
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Let’s hope the rest of the 12z output follows the ICONs lead.... unlikely I fear though
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I haven’t seen a forecast yet today willing to make a prediction for Thursday night onwards. There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty. Super cold out here in the preseli hills working today. Van thermometer didn’t make it above freezing all day.
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Going to come down to nowcasting I’m sure. There’ll be some frantic radar watching come Thursday night.
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Latest GFS really holding back the Atlantic. Precipitation does make to Wales, but not by much. Actually makes Pembrokeshire the sweet spot with almost 24hrs of snow on Sunday!!! It’ll be different again in the morning though.
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Back in work now so less time to check the model output. Was distinctly colder out there today. I think things are firming up now for at least some of Wales to have quite a prolonged period of snow at the end of the week.
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ECM looking decent again this morning, but pushes back the snow till Friday.
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With the low pressure so close to our west, seems likely that a few fronts/short waves will spawn off it and head our way and hopefully stall, similar to what the ECM shows tonight.
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Any one think there is a chance the front that moves across Wales tonight will have anything left on it by the time it makes it to the west? Presuming all the high ground in mid Wales will cause it to fizzle out.
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The ICON brings a chance of snow grazing the south tues night into Wednesday.
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So many different options still for Thursday next week. GEM as posted above is best for snow. GFS is snow to rain and ECM has nothing teaching us at all. Fascinating to watch it unfold day by day, it’s given me something to do with my 2 weeks off work, whilst in lockdown
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The GEM would be a very special event for SW Wales. Very rare. I’ve seen the ECM follow the GEM before, we’ll see what happens at 18:30 ??
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Yeah, but if a disappointing update this afternoon. Transient snow event looking likely to the best chance for us in the south and west. Further north and east might do very well though.
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6 days away in an ever evolving and unusual setup. Things will keep changing till at least Tuesday. Just remember how much those automated forecasts changed last weekend.
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Going to be fascinating watching how the approaching low pressure from the Atlantic progresses. Could be a proper high risk/high reward scenario for us in wales. This morning shows a snow to rain event for all of us. Just 24hrs ago an all snow event. Too far out to know with any certainty at this stage.
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1982 was historic for Pembrokeshire, from what I’ve been told. I wasn’t born either. But whenever snow is forecast my dad always tells me the story of how he could almost touch the top of the telegraph poles because the snow had drifted so high! Would love to witness that, seems unlikely this time, but you never know.
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From what I can see, the big snow maker that was on the ECM this morning is much further south on tonight’s run. It’s then the next low pressure that powers right through the U.K. Impossible to say at this stage if that’s how it’ll play out. Both this mornings and tonight’s options equally plausible in my opinion.
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This mornings run are quite exceptional for a possible big snow event a week from now. Obviously won’t happen exactly like this, but shows the potential is there!
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Tonight’s models not great for us in the south west. Both GFS and ECM give us a snow to rain event on Wednesday into Thursday. Hopefully they are underestimating the depth of cold and we might see the system track further south and not pushing right through us, turning things to rain. Fingers crossed.
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it does look to me that if any snow is going to happen next week, then around Wednesday/Thursday seems the most likely day for a push from the Atlantic. Hopefully it won’t make too much progress N/E though, as that’ll turn things wet for some of us.
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Nice to see some falling snow at least this morning. Raining now, so the next hunt begins. Hope some of you get a decent covering today.
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Getting heavier now, but the ground is wet, so I doubt it will settle here. Nice to see though.
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I can confirm what is falling here is snow, but very light currently.
