Pembs458

This is painful radar watching. Precipitation is so close, but seems to have come to a halt!

Still loads of uncertainty even for Thursday night/Friday. Wouldn’t rule it out completely just yet. One thing that is certain, it’ll be different again in the morning.

I can feel the frustration in here. These current Synoptics are rare and had the potential to deliver a memorable snow event. We would need a big turnaround now to see anything noteworthy, but still a chance of some small accumulations. That would make it 3 snow events with lying snow here this winter so far, all being just a small covering, but much better than anything we’ve had here since storm Emma back in 2018.

Let’s hope the rest of the 12z output follows the ICONs lead.... unlikely I fear though

I haven’t seen a forecast yet today willing to make a prediction for Thursday night onwards. There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty. Super cold out here in the preseli hills working today. Van thermometer didn’t make it above freezing all day.

Going to come down to nowcasting I’m sure. There’ll be some frantic radar watching come Thursday night.

Latest GFS really holding back the Atlantic. Precipitation does make to Wales, but not by much. Actually makes Pembrokeshire the sweet spot with almost 24hrs of snow on Sunday!!! It’ll be different again in the morning though.

Back in work now so less time to check the model output. Was distinctly colder out there today. I think things are firming up now for at least some of Wales to have quite a prolonged period of snow at the end of the week.

ECM looking decent again this morning, but pushes back the snow till Friday.

With the low pressure so close to our west, seems likely that a few fronts/short waves will spawn off it and head our way and hopefully stall, similar to what the ECM shows tonight.

Any one think there is a chance the front that moves across Wales tonight will have anything left on it by the time it makes it to the west? Presuming all the high ground in mid Wales will cause it to fizzle out.

The ICON brings a chance of snow grazing the south tues night into Wednesday.

So many different options still for Thursday next week. GEM as posted above is best for snow. GFS is snow to rain and ECM has nothing teaching us at all. Fascinating to watch it unfold day by day, it’s given me something to do with my 2 weeks off work, whilst in lockdown

The GEM would be a very special event for SW Wales. Very rare. I’ve seen the ECM follow the GEM before, we’ll see what happens at 18:30 ??

Yeah, but if a disappointing update this afternoon. Transient snow event looking likely to the best chance for us in the south and west. Further north and east might do very well though.