There's a storm a coming

Yep! The next few frames were very interesting....cold uppers flooding west towards the uk. Let's wait until the ensembles and see where this run sits. Let's just hope it's not the start of the high being forecast more into Europe like a few weeks back. Tasac

What does seem to stand out with the models is that what ever happens in the short to mid term with block orientation/low sliding etc we still seem to end up with some form of easterly by the 10th....just not sure how cold it will be Tasac

As Steve M said we may need at least 2 cycles to get the real cold here and by the looks of the ecm he could be spot on Tasac

At 168'hrs the ecm has the Scandinavian high just gobbling up the Azores high!... Tasac

I Agree! But where is this run going? The next few frames could be interesting! Tasac

Is the ecm following the UKMO with the high slowly slipping southwards into Europe? We need the low pressure to slide under pretty quickly to hold its " saggy bottom up" and push them cold uppers westwards and not northwards Tasac

And as been discussed on here plenty...that will lead to the UKMO outlook of mostly dry weather moving in and any fronts decaying in the west...it will also turn colder as winds swing round to the south east. I must admit tho. That is a mighty big block on the 144hr ukmo Tasac

Looks a corker at least a 3 day cold spell longer if the high can merge with the Russian one Tasac

ECM 192hrs looks good and heights trying to push towards Greenland Tasac

Unfortunately GFS can't handle it! The last couple of days GFS had been churning out great FI but today seems to have gone downhill with the dreaded Azores high just not leaving us alone Tasac

So the UKMO follows its morning run with lows passing over the north of Scotland and then diving into Europe and the Azores high still close by to the sw...good for the northwest as this will bring cold air and snow showers. GFS seems to be following the script also up to 144hrs Tasac

So if I read that right they are happy with the pattern across most of the usa apart from the southeast corner where there is a mod to high spread...typical that that's the bit we're interested in. looks like the GFS 18 has moved a little closer to the UKMO and ECM although it's still a bit quicker Tasac

Thanks nick for your reply and thoughts, I'm sure the GFS will start backtracking most probably starting with the 18z. As it all starts on the southeast coast of USA is there any news from them on what model they prefer Tasac

Looks a good guess for what the 168hrs shows but more importantly what do people think the next step would be? Tasac

After my last comment I thought I would just hang on and see what the 192 showed...glad I did as next low is diving southeast...but I can't believe what I'm seeing a low pressure developing in the western med! ... Tasac

I've seen enough up to 168hrs anything after this is la la land at the moment especially with the wild swings happening with the models...not including the UKMO in that as it's by the way the best performing at the moment. Tasac

At 144hrs it has followed UKMO and the low pressure is sliding southeast and bringing in a Nwesterly lets see what the next few frames will show Tasac

If it does then it will be interesting what happens next up to day 8 or so as this would be the same way the UKMO might have gone. Interesting viewing Tasac

At 96hrs it looks almost identical. Let's hoping the ECM follows the UKMO at 120hrs I believe it will....come on for Steve's sake....sorry for all our sakes Tasac

Hi Steve. Big joe B on twitter believes the UKMO is the closest to what he thinks will happen on the east coast...he says big storm for them? Tasac

You've got to give " credit were credits due" the GFS is very persistent in giving us this set up tho Tasac

Thanks Steve. Your posts are so informative and easy to follow. Just perhaps it is the signs of a change I for certain will keep an eye out tomorrow for further enhancements Tasac

So the ec46 continues its quest to see us in a position where we would be looking east for our weather...blocking to the north and lower heights to the south and low temps especially the further south you live. As Essex weather has quoted on twitter there is also 30% chance of it becoming very cold. Wish we could get fergies thoughts on it. looking at the GFS & ECM they both give hints that perhaps we are moving towards the ec46 position but still some " work is to be done" before we do. the hope of the day via bluearmy must be ......the sceuro low anomalies back west Tasac

ECM seems to be pushing everything a little to Far East. Hopefully over the coming days some correction west will happen. But at least GFS and ECM agreeing with the northwest flow over us and the jet diving se into Europe. We just need the high pressure to slip away westwards as well, it just ssems to want to continue its " love affair" with us Tasac

GFS op following the GFS det. In FI with deepening low pressures driving across Scotland and then into Europe bringing a cyclonic cold spell to us. I think this looks like the way forward next week what happens next is still " up in the air" lets see what the ECM brings later tasac