festivalking

See the GFS is still trolling those of us down towards the coast.

Hit -3c here already. The forecast was for 0c at this time interested to see where it falls. And the Scott situation. Hey he may or may not of led a merry dance but in the first two weeks for January that chase made people feel engaged and enraged by the weather. Probably taking their minds off post Christmas blues. It's all fallen flat yes. I loved it because in a sad way I kind of like watching people lose their minds over the weather. So if there is to be another chase and he leads it, good for him. Its only the weather its all b*llocks in the scheme if things but if it makes people happy good luck to them. Now how's that snow doing for tomorrow......checks notes.....ah shiiiii

Yep GFS has pepped up. UKMO brings the system almost to our shores. But the fax is no good. See what ECM brings.

Thats a suckerpunch!

Yep all models have moved that low north not all hit the coastline but a trend. Ha ha after I said no chance yesterday. The weather makes mugs of us all.

Tiny shift north on the 18z GFS bringing Cornwall and west Devon into contention. Possibly rain on the coasts but light snow inland. But only for a few hours before the system falls away. Negligible accumulations though

GFS 18z makes landfall in the far south west on Wednesday. A small shift north.

ECM keeping the agony going as already mentioned by AWD. The system brushing the coastline. The high resolution charts available in an hour or so will be interesting

ECM run starts at 6pm. Should know about 6.20. Never say never but you would be brave to bet against it staying in the channel.

ECM GFS ICON UKMO, they all say the front is in the channel. Cross model support I'd say its pretty certain. Yes there is a chance but we're just 48 hours from it now

Yep looks like it's over till the next cold spell now.

Sun was out this morning temperature rocketed to 7.1c. Gloom has returned back to 3.8c.

Great analysis thank you. Wonder what macro conditions effect the direction of that low which obviously has such effect at a micro level

That would be interesting what's his full name or do you have a link to the Facebook page? And yes super brave.

This is going to be a long week......think mogreps comes out around midday that will give some clues to the UKMO. Plus the fax charts should be enlightening

Yes some staggering low minima. Linked with snow cover no doubt. Hard not to let the mind drift but with keeping things in perspective still not convinced with UKMO and ECM not interested

On the GFS it has inched further north! Hopefully not to much more north than this.Be ironic would it not after diving through Paris in the end it dived through Birmingham

But just to add the latest GFS now brings the rain sleet snow onto the coastline on Wednesday. The favourite though is still for it to miss us all

Looking like we have another 7 days of dry weather before the wet onslaught continues. Thought of the rains returning is depressing. Hope water levels manage to fall this week. Fear with the ground warming up and further rain, further flooding will undoubtedly follow. Happy weekend all

They are very rare these days. Best one for me which I mentioned this morning was 1994. Oh god, that's 30 years ago!!

So chances of snow are slimming by the hour but still for me I'm looking forward to the continuation of low and lower temperatures. Br good to get the monthly average below 4c. The milder weather next weekend will put alot of pressure on this Currently the average for the month is 3.9c

Paris gets buried

Yeah there's me looking at the 12z

Let us know when the box opens

MOGREPS currently at 25% of that low making landfall in the southwest. Certainly reduced down from 40%