Thunderywintrysnow
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Posts posted by Thunderywintrysnow
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Okay guys the post was directed at the rudeness (ie) JOKE at the start of the post that is what i was trying to highlight please move on from this its glogging up the thread lets move on.
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1 minute ago, Danny* said:
To be fair, Bastardi is a massive cold ramper and I'm pretty sure he's gone for "major Europe and UK cold" every year for the past 5 or 6 winters now. I agree with you on the teleconnections side though, still waiting for this "Easterly" the experts keep touting about. You know, the one we've been chasing since the second week of December or so.
Looking at the actual models, not very inspiring at all if it's cold and snow you're after, looks rather unsettled to me so wouldn't be surprised to see some flood issues in the next week or 2. Yuck.
Yep i know he is a cold ramper and got some wrong some right like most meteorologists will do in there career but to call him a Joke just because teleconnections state otherwise i just don't agree with that one bit.
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2 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:What a joke, that Bastardi guy. There's no chance MJO is hitting Phase 8. Niña base state will block that. MJO Phase 2-3 is totally plausible, like it did for the current cycle. But Bastardi is just throwing around wild MJO and other sub seasonal predictions, that we has no proof for. One of the cons of twitter popularity.
GWO is sitting in Phase 3, not Phase 4 as the Schiraldi plots indicate. Again caution of -AAM bias from GEFS, but it shows an increase in AAM, but no proper GWO Phase 4 and all the coldie benefits that go with it.
I offer the alternative, which is a proper GWO Phase 4 to 8, which gives a Scandi high and northerlies a better chance than normal. But does the MJO and the Niña base state have what it takes to bring us to that height.
Frictional Torque is currently slightly positive, I suggest it will stay relatively neutral, perhaps to the negative side for the next while. Not quite sure about that, but we need the FT to play ball, if we want that GWO Phase 4. We need tropical FT from MJO Phase 6-7, to hit Niña Easterlies in the Central and Eastern Pacific. That moves onto positive mountain torque, that brings a GWO Phase 4 state into play. Sorry if I am explaining what Tamara, etc has said over and over again, but the mechanics of this are crucial, if this fails, no Phase 4 GWO.
EPS is playing ball with my MJO Phase 6-7 prog, but remember not to play too much upon the RMM correlations. RMM fails, VP200 is probably the best viewing method of the MJO.
GEFS VP200 Week 2 (MV) shows a weakening Phase 6-7, but still significant. This could still allow us to play with MJO and Niña = tropical +FT.
I am going to leave the last word to a model I (and the vast majority) don't put much faith in. But it plays doubt upon, my theory above, and favours the GEFS AAM prog.
A lack of Niña Easterlies would place doubt on a major tropical +FT Phase. I personally don't think a weakening of the Niña base state could happen, with the MJO prevailing. But it is important to explore all options of where we can go. The GFS Hovmoller shows the opposite, a weakening MJO, with Niña base state prevailing. Yet no tropical +FT to affect GWO/AAM.
Very important to look at all pathways, which IMO I think it has been lacking in these threads for a while. We need to see all we can see, not just narrow our focus to the data we want to see. That makes for poor model analysis.
Not nice calling a professional paid meteorologist a joke just because your teleconnections says otherwise they have been wrong before and will be wrong again that's the same man who predicted the eastern USA big freeze over a month before it happened nobody is right or wrong until Feb is over play nice.
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14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
We just CANNOT get sustained northern blocking in the model output, during the winter months any more,thats why only really Scotland are having a cold winter ,because their location is far enough north to benefit from colder maritime polar air than further south.
Further south you need maritime Arctic air or continental polar/artic air to bring cold and snow further snow,because of the shorter sea track
thats the simple explanation,of the differences and still NO sign of blocking setting up in the correct location from ANY model to bring a decent cold spell for all the country.
Only Scotland?
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12 hours ago, doctor32 said:
Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.
*So the further north the better
For us NE England folk!*
Is this far enough North for yea doc.
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
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More like GFS/ECM than ukmo
Yea but it's further South on this run than 00z so it is a correction South. Out of models it had low further north on 00z.
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Met Eireann going for that runner further South hope there right.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Winds many ease a bit but there will be further wintry showers in the west and north and there could be some more prolonged rain or snow for a time overnight Wednesday in some midland and southern counties.
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9 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:
So it might be short term pain for long term gain in terms of Snowfall as the EC and GFS both have the low further North giving only our Scottish friends some snow. But both go on to show a winter wonderland so basically seems all routes lead to cold what could go wrong. Cough, shortwave lol.
No not just Scotland many others including N Ireland & that's the mean thing.
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3 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:
Weather for week ahead wintry looking
Any links please.
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4 minutes ago, terrier said:well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths.
Monday cold air not embedded it Tuesday morning onwards the fun begins.
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North of Ireland buried. And many other locations.
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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Hmmm, GFS looks very progressive after day 6. Worrying trend...
Never fear runner runner is here.
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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
At the risk of being lambasted for not seeing a wintry nirvana next week (runners aside which has always been the caveat), I’m still struggling to see where sustained snow cover is likely away from elevation with an onshore flow.
Inland areas not have laying snow especially us in Ireland & North West??
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Runner runner chicken dinner.
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Slowly wording changing day by day met Eireann below.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: Becoming increasingly blustery and showery; showers turning wintry later Monday into Tuesday with falls of sleet and snow increasingly more likely. The focus of the wintry showers will be across the north and west with some accumulations likely - but all areas will be at risk with some thunder occurring locally too. Much colder, with maxima of only 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (north to south). Feeling even colder with an added wind chill effect. Frost and ice also, mainly for sheltered areas owing to sustained brisk winds.
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44 minutes ago, ronan said:
So before the 18's roll out check out this cracking forecast for the week ahead. If people can't get excited about this upcoming cold spell now then I dunno. Lol. No real end in sight either.
Boom
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14 minutes ago, Weegaz said:
Granted I haven’t been an avade follower of weather to the nature I am now and still enjoy learning but I haven’t (in the 5 years since taking an interest) seen such interesting charts in terms of snow potential.
What possible upgrades could we see?
Polar lows can form out of nowhere that's one to watch with this unstable flow you never know.
500pha are very cold.
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34 minutes ago, Weegaz said:
I'd say your a 7 now MS.
8.5 maybe a 9 by the end of the night Atlantic snow machine.
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Cecilia mention snow showers and bitterly cold winds next week.
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Looking good for snow next week let's see what the 12z have to say.
Model output discussion - mid January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Surely this is a sign it's going happen look closely at the zoomed in picture snowshill??