STORMWATER
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Posts posted by STORMWATER
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The models are dishearting this evening to say the least where I live, but anyone up north will get some decent amounts, fingers crossed we might get a change in the models tomorrow or Monday but clutching at straws I think.
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3 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:
Model/net weather forum check before work, during work, catch up after work and then before sleep
Fascinating stuff this early to start the winter
I wonder what I did with all this time the rest of the year
It is fascinating model watching, all to play for. I do wonder what I do in the summer when not model-watching.
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Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:
Not the best at 168..just about hanging onto the cold air
It's a long way off at this stage, plenty to play for between now and then.
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Out of my summer hibernation and what fantastic charts, it could go all tits up but could we be on the verge of a very, very cold December. What's the consensus among the people who know what they are looking at?
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The GFS is still sticking to it's guns for now, it reminds me of a horse race, where all the form says it will be the form horses that will fight out the finish but along comes that outsider to do them on the line. Whatever happens the weather will do what it wants to do but hopefully the GFS is on the money and swoops late to steal the prize.
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Having a look at the various models, it's not looking good for cold this January especially here in south east Ireland.
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6 minutes ago, seaside boy said:
Southerly winds just a week away
A week is a very long time in weather terms, I'll believe it if on Wednesday the models are showing it but for now I think the mild weather will be pushed back and if not the weather will do what it wants to do as always.
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Extremely hard to know what to make of the pub run TBH, none of the models can get a handle on that low in the Atlantic. I personally believe we could and especially the UK and not us in Ireland could have an epic outcome when they get a handle on that low.
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It's cold here at the moment but our chances of snow are zero, by this time tomorrow it will be mild and damp.
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Very cold here and windy also but dry, current temp 4C, I'd say for us down here to see snow the rest of the country would have to be buried in it.
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Fascinated by all the comments, but for me the latest GFS and ECM run it's game over especially where I'm located, I don't look at the other models as basically they are not up to scratch and unfortunately it looks like the mild wind and rain will return by Sunday.
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To be fair these colder synoptics have been showing since the past week, with increasing support.
Just variance in how the cold arrives, I say the likelihood of a colder start to March is much greater than a milder start. Looking at the ECM it seems essentially rather dry, more so the further north you are.
But very cold. +240 has -8C 850s tucking in the far SE. I'd expect the forum to be more busy...
Also March sun can start triggering off convection I do think March is not a closed doors month.
Not great model output if you are mildie! Something is definitely bubbling and frothing.
I have to agree, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and if it does it could get stronger and we could end up with a very cold start to spring.
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Fluky coincidence. GFS 06z has a low that tracks the Channel on night of 2nd/3rd March on the 20th anniversary of a similar low that gave snowfalls across Wales and Midlands.
Yes i noticed that, but will it all change on the next run.
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Yes a great GFS 06Z but I await the ECM later on today and also the next run of the GFS will be interesting, if the high in mid Atlantic intensifies at 141 hours out on the later runs then we're in business but it's a big if at the moment.
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Worth a giggle on a Sunday evening http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/554183/Britain-red-alert-displaced-Polar-vortex-unleash-weather-hell-next-week I still can't stop laughing.
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The icing on the cake tonight is provided by the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it shows arctic air flooding south across the UK from later next week onwards, so it looks to me like our first nationwide arctic spell is on the way with most of us having snow, frosts and ice but also gales, severe gales and perhaps storm force winds. This could be a high impact wintry event we are facing in around a weeks time.
It's a long way off at this stage and we can only look at the models last Thursday week showing a very good easterly for the following week only for it to never materialise. I would take these latest outputs with a pinch of salt.
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It's a while since I posted on this site, the model runs have been all over the place these past few days, that Scandi high will have a say yet for most of you in the UK.
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It's extremenly windy down here in Waterford City.
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I just had a look at the latest GFS run and TBH I don't buy it, it's so far removed at 96h from the ECM you would swear it was for a different planet.
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I'll bet we won't see one flake down here.
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Your lucky, down here it's been like southern Spain all winter.A disgusting dusting of about 38 flakes in early December!!!
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It's depressing lads, we're so close we can nearly taste the snow, this winter has been so poor, any money it will rain most of the summer and for those who love mild muck I hope it does. LOL
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It's getting desperate for snow lovers at this point, I personally think we won't get any. Mild mild muck.
Model banter and emotions
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Extremely disappointing model watching this winter, yes we had our coldest night last night but no snow whatsoever. Looking at the next week or so it's wind and rain all the way, I can't see any hope in the models for the next 2 weeks or so, hopefully, it will change for the better for us coldies, because once mid-March comes then I just have no interest in the weather.