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Posts posted by hammy_ire

  1. 7 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

    No, I've just resigned myself to the fact that the Dublin snow shield is operating at 100%. Has been since 2010!


    Good luck to you all, enjoy the sneachta! I might just hibernate as the jealousy might just kill me!

    I wouldn't say 100% snow shield.  Maybe 85%. I think we may see a few flakes in Dublin but certainly nothing settling, I'd be very surprised at least. You'd never know with such an unstable flow. If I'm to pick a chart that might deliver something it'll be the HIRLAM 12Z FOR 9PM tomorrow eve.  Straws. Clutching?


    • Like 1
  2. 6 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

    1950 definitely looking whiter than it did yesterday and in the link below it's clearly snowing:



    I'm currently staying in la plagne 1800 and i don't think there was anywhere near 30cm. I was in les arc today and up top there may have been up to 10cm but only a small dusting on the lower slopes. In fairness they have kept the pistes in great shape with the canons and I've spent the last 2 days in les arcs...much better than la plagne! 

    • Like 2
  3. 11 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Hi hammy. Thanks for the pm. I'm replying here as it may be relevant to others departing for the Alps this coming weekend.

    First of all, I now understand your concerns as you depart for La Plagne on 31st Dec. That is one fantastic resort for skiing and I've been there twice. Linked to Les Arcs too, so a day over there is well worth it.

    From what I can see from today's model output, you stand a reasonable chance of seeing snowfall of between 5 and 10 cm on Tues 3rd Jan. I sincerely hope that is an underestimate from the models and you end up with more. Here's the 12z charts today for next Tues 3rd (La Plagne location arrowed) - GFS, Arpege hourly at 03.00, and Arpege cumulative to next Tuesday morning 07.00 (furthest chart at the mo):

    GFS Precip 12z 29Dec for 03Jan.pngArpege 12z 29Dec for 03Jan La Plagne.jpgArpege 12z Accum Precip 29Dec for 03Jan.png

    @Blessed Weather, thank you so much for this great analysis.  Only been able to have a quick look this morning but the GFS is probably marginally better looking.  History however has thought me not to take GFS precipitation charts at day 5 at face value! To my untrained eye the ecm and UKMO don't look as promising? This could be just me reading the charts incorrectly as they don't provide precipitation charts!? I'd gladly bank 10cm midweek at this stage.  Just to top up and give the place a more seasonal look!

    • Like 1
  4. 3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    The outlook for the Alps is finally looking up! And the French press have picked up on the story:

    Alleluia should say the stations (resorts). After almost a month without precipitation, Météo France forecasters based in Bourg-Saint-Maurice announce the arrival of several disruptions for next week.
    "We are going to have a fairly radical change," says one of the forecasters. Ten centimeters should fall on Monday on Bourg-Saint-Maurice, "and about the same amount in station". Another snowy phenomenon could also make its appearance on the weekend of 7 and 8 January.


    The latest GFS charts show a series of snow bands reaching the Alps. But the other notable fact is the 850 hPa temps are forecast to fall to -15C and even briefly -20C, so bitterly cold!!

    3rd Alps snow 03Jan.png 7th Alps snow 07Jan.png 9th Alps snow 09Jan.png

    850 hPa temps on 10th Jan: Alps 850 temp 10Jan.png

    I think I've struck it lucky - I'm off to the German resort of Feldberg on Jan 8th. :)


    I really hope you're right @Blessed Weather, struggling to see how 10cms will reach that far south.  Seems to be fizzling out as it moves south against the higher pressure.  Fingers crossed...plenty of changes in the meantime no doubt. 

    • Like 1
  5. 23 minutes ago, TheGate said:

    Yes. Slopes look well groomed down 1500m but there is no snow on the roads, and bare patches all over the mountains. I'm afraid we are in for a warm and sunny week. Pistes up high are in good condition, but down Low they are suffering. Today have had to stop early as I fell due to sticky snow and overcrowding, it seems around bellecotte that quite a few pistes are closed and therefore the open ones are very full. Next week they are expecting snow from Tuesday, but it may take a day or two to improve things.

    Thanks for the update.  Are you staying around for long? I'll be there from Saturday to Saturday so fingers crossed for that snow but the models don't look amazing at the moment but of course a lot can change in a week! 

  6. 1 hour ago, minus 9 said:

    Sign this morning that the semi permanent euro high could be on the wane.  Let's hope so,I'm off to solden on the 15th jan. Its looking very bare below 2000 metres.  Maybe snow before Christmas. Let's pray.

    Fingers crossed! Does look like there's a bit of disruption, maybe Santa can deliver snow to the alps this year! I've been following Weather to ski for their daily update which is usually pretty good. He usually has it updated by now but looks like he is struggling as an hour or 2 late!! 

    • Like 2
  7. 7 hours ago, Ravelin said:

    The best route for a dumping across the whole Alps would be for the jet-stream to dive south into the Med and drag low pressure systems across the Alps. That looks highly unlikely though in the next 2 weeks so we're looking for scraps really. Where I'm going, Serre Chevalier, in the Southern/Central Alps I'm pinning any hopes on precipitation being dragged up out of the Med. The more northern Alps might get something coming from a more Northerly direction. Looks like it'll be about 6-7 days though before anywhere has much chance of getting anything and since that's quite far out in terms of forecasting precipitation we'll need to wait and see.

    Thanks so much.  This makes sense.  I wasn't sure if it would be cold enough for snow in alps in such a mobile south flowing jet. In essence, for snow in the alps you need the opposite to what most people on here crave at this time of year?! Not looking super good at the moment but I've been following the models on and off for some time and know how quickly they can change especially with the amount of uncertainty at present.  That high however will be difficult to shift!

  8. 31 minutes ago, durhamgrad said:

    I have been following this thread for quite a few seasons getting my head around the weather patterns needed to produce a good snow flurry over the alps, and I have to say it is not looking good at the moment.  I'm off to Les Arcs 1800 on the 7th Jan and at the moment, its looking like I will be either skiing down slithers of snow around resort, or i'll potentially be heading out after the first big dump of the year... Fingers crossed for the latter!

    On a side note, I was in Geneva at the weekend and went alpine walking in the Jura and had that most amazing of phenomenon where you set off at 400m in -3 degrees Celsius and then head up to 1700m to be at +5 degrees Celsius, made for some cracking views but not good conditions for snow!


    I am in a similar situation only going to La Plagne 1800 on the 31st December so a week less to play with! I'm keeping the faith though and going for a dumping around the 28th December! Don't ask for charts!! Just keeping positive and will be keeping a close eye on this and model forum! 

    • Like 2
  9. Hi All, Long time lurker, probably first time posting! I'm a coldie and love following these boards, certainly never have the knowledge/confidence to post in the mods board! I am heading for a week skiing in La Plagne from 31 Dec. I know it's impossible to know this early out what conditions will be like. I understand what synoptics are required for Cold in the UK but what should I be looking for in the models to ensure La Plagne gets a good dumping before my trip?!

    Many Thanks!

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