I don't really post but have been watching the models for years and have seen enough near misses to realise how difficult it is to get really cold weather to the UK, as we have seen over the last 24-48 hrs small changes can have huge affects. One things for sure there will be more changes in the output, as per Steve Murr's excellent post if the low to the SW of Greenland does phase in our favor this may flip back if not we may be looking at another shot in a few weeks.
It's great to see Ian Ferguson giving an insight to the thoughts at MO. Any new comers just need to get to know the posters with the real knowledge and those that are waiting for a 'winters over' post or making ridiculous statements after a few frames of a run. A huge thanks to the more experienced posters over the years a lot of good posts and a lot to learn from them.
Certainly had much better winters over the last 4 years so maybe have been a little spoilt with cold prospects and blocking scenarios (even if last winter was poor still had 12cm snow fall IMBY in Feb)
I'm looking for the ECM to move towards UKMO if it doesn't and in the end get a disappointing cold zonal type that's just the weather and why we enjoy watching the model ouput and even those that don't still talk about the British weather!